Join In On The Action "Register Here" To View The Forums

Already a Member Login Here

Board index Forum Index
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 08 Nov 2014, 10:05 am

I have been reading up on strategy. There is a link to an archive for a post called called secret formula. Please add thoughts on strategy on this page.So here are some ideas:

1. There appears to be somewhat of a consensus that you need a 1 or a 2 defensively at SS , 2b , or CF. Other positions are harder to say because you are paying for that defense and ultimately sacrificing pitching or offense to get it. It's trial and error as to what minimum defense you will accept at each position--you can get some great offensive players cheaply with poor defense so this takes a lot of trial and error and probably just individual preference to get the right balance. I have seen opinions all over the place from successful owners.

2. A 50/30 hitting vs pitching split seems to be a baseline. One owner advised 35 million for pitching in a pitching ballpark and 25 in a hitter's ballpark
3. OBP, BA and speed in pitcher's ballpark; OBP and power in hitter's ballpark.
4. Using 24 players seems to be a consensus.
5. Make sure you are not leaving $ on the bench.
6. Focus on top five pitchers and top 9 hitters. One strategy said 70 mill for those guys and 10 mill for rest. Be careful of spending too much on relievers you do not use.
7. Match-up relief can be good but make sure it's not terrible against bad side
8. Be wary of pitchers of high hr numbers (particularly if your park allows hrs) I follow the 1 hr/10 inning rule myself.
9. Be mindful of DP. Too many GbA (hard hit ground ball) on a hitter's card can reduce his value.
10. I saw some talk about clutch hitting but I am not getting it. On hitter's card there is a $
sign in certain results which changes a single to an out if a runner is in scoring position and two outs. But it seems to be a minor thing on most cards and the way it seems to be work is an absence of $ means you are more clutch. From watching a lot of games it seems (not certain) that hitters get worse in late-game pressure situations (game is tied or close) but I don't know how it does it. At this point I am not seeing clutch performance as being significant on cards and if the computer is using something else I don't know what it is.
11. Adjust your team to your ball park.
12. Adjust your team to your division.
13. Be careful of too many moves that deplete the overall salary of your team. You are losing something when you cut salary so you have to be careful.
14. One owner likes high BA, high OBP, and high slug for a line-up and make sure you have good 1-9 hitters so line-up turns over. .300, .400, .500 would be perfect line- up for him. I tend to agree (though you can't get that high of team OBP but maybe .300, .370,.500 is possible) And if you go with pitching strategy going to be tough to do.
15. Careful at overusing relief pitchers due to fatigue. Also, I read that errors do not cause fatigue. I was wondering why Utley is so cheap when his a 2 at second and good hitter and I guess it has to do that he is 2e23 (high errors). And maybe injury propensity (I don 't know that the game factors it in, it seems like it does given salaries of injury prone players--and I saw post that says it does)
16. Be careful of injury-prone players. Not sure what cut-off should be but a 5 or 6 seems problematic to me. Might also need to look at their card to see how often they get hurt.
17. I think having 1 top closer is advisable and seems like this is somewhat recommended. Don't spend too much on relief though--1 top guy, the rest probably not that expensive. This is a trial and error thing as to what balance you like. R2s can be advisable to avoid bullpen getting fatigued.
18. Pay attention to # on card. This is the ballpark hr effect and it can be huge on some cards. If you have hitter's ballpark you want guys with a lot of them.
19. I'm not a hundred percent sure but an asterisk next to steal rating appears to mean that a player must be held on by the other team and this increases batting average. So if you have a lot of guys with this your team batting average is going to be higher than expected.
20. Platoons can give you more offense but too many can be problematic. My last team had a lot and I saw so many abs with my players on their bad side against relievers.
21. Saw this on defense:

SS--6 X chances
2b--5 X chances
CF/3b 3 X chances
All others 2 X chances (C may be 3)

One owner argued that CF defense more important because of extra bases due to bad defense as opposed to 3b. He ranked defense priority as SS,2B, CF, 3b, RF (arm), LF, 1b (unknown catching)
Also saw comparison that a 4e10 as was equivalent to a 1e84 ss (so 74 more runners for a 4 vs 1)
One owner said questionable to use 4 or 5 OF (May be due to extra base poss)
22. The 4 Sp* (3 day rest strategy). I was thinking of using it last season. Cardinals did and are on finals.

It's a start. These are just ideas , some more certain than others (d up the middle is pretty certain)
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 08 Nov 2014, 11:05 am

This is a good article on defense. http://www.mfooz.com/bblog/wp-content/u ... efense.pdf
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 08 Nov 2014, 2:44 pm

I took a look at Trout card against RHP:

There are 108 combinations (there are only 33 listed but because these are dice rolls and a 7 has. 6 chances while a 2 has 1 you have to roll 36 times for each column to get the right distribution)

39 outs
22 bb/hbp
6 2b
3.5 tr
16 1b
3.5 hr

Base performance is .424. .566 .811

There are 18 variable outcomes:

5 #. (Ballpark hr)
3> (ballpark 1b)
6 gbA+ (double play normally but if defense in or holding runner automatic single)
4 $ 1b (an out if 2 outs and runners in scoring position)

Difference between Trout playing in max hr park is min park is:

In a low single ballpark, non-pressure situation, and no one on base or being held:
On Trout's card against RHP:

Max ballpark vs min:

Batting avg 38/86=.395 vs 33/86 .337
On- base 60/108=.518 vs 55/108=. 472
Slug= 80/86=.930 vs 60/86=. 697

Trout 's stats in the best situation ( max hr ballpark, max singles ballpark, no pressure, infield drawn in or held is) vs worst possible situation (min hr, min single, no on base or runner not held, pressure)

BA 47/86=.546 vs 29/86=.337
OBP 69/108=.639 vs 51/108=.472
Slug 89/87=1.034 vs 56/86=.651
User avatar
Rally Racer (Pro III)
 
Posts: 5047
Joined: 08 Apr 2002, 9:45 am

Post 09 Nov 2014, 8:08 am

You know, if you want to do well, Freeman, I think you should put a little more effort in. :grin:

Two mistakes I think I've made in the first two seasons:

1. Having a mix of * and non * SP's on my roster. You're paying for the shorter rest pitchers allowing for a 4-man rotation but if you run a 5-man rotation, that's just wasted money.

2. Putting too many dollars on RP.

There are some other things on your list I agree with - I'll see if I can make some comments later.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 09 Nov 2014, 10:29 pm

One thing that I had never thought before was pitcher fielding. I believe it's the next to the error rating that says pitcher "3" or some number between 1-5. I wasn't sure about but then I thought what pitcher would have a 1 and I thought Greinke and sure enough he is 1. According to the article I cited pitchers get the same number of x chances as lf, rf and 1 b. It's also interesting to note that 2b and ss get 117/243 X chances for a period equal to 108 PAs on batter's card ( if you add pitcher's 108 you get 216, about 1/3 of a year. That does not count catcher but my 3 catcher converted 59/67 chance so not sure how important it is.
Also , what does a 1 give you at short vs a 2? I took a look at JJ hardy in our league and his numbers seem to almost fit the chart (I think). He converted 179/192 total opportunities. The chart 1 turn 80% of double play oops and the rest are just 1 out; it also double plays occur 18.75 % of the time. So if we assume that the breakdown was for a 1/3 of a year a shortstop will get 199 total chances; of those 199 chances 18.75% will be 37 DP opportunities and a 1 will convert 80 percent so 29 (he will convert all of the 1 out chances). A 2 will convert 55% so about 20 DPs. The 2 will also allow 10% singles. So that's about 29 extra base runners. A 3 will convert 11 DPs and allow 40 singles, so that's a total of 58 extra runners. A 4 will give convert 7 DPs and allow 59 singles that's an extra 81 runners.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 09 Nov 2014, 11:22 pm

But look at the difference between a 1 vs 4 in lf. The 4 outfielder will give up 33 extra runners (and 11 doubles and triples) So the difference between a 1 and 4 in left field has a bigger impact than a 1 and 2 at ss. And actually it's arguable that a difference between a 1 and 4 at lf is close to a 1 and 3 at SS (given the extra impact of 11 doubles and triples). 33 base runners but 45 total bases (as opposed to 58 extra base runners between a 1 and 3 at SS). So you can't just ignore defense at non- priority positions.
User avatar
Rally Racer (Pro III)
 
Posts: 5047
Joined: 08 Apr 2002, 9:45 am

Post 10 Nov 2014, 6:44 pm

freeman3 wrote:10. I saw some talk about clutch hitting but I am not getting it. On hitter's card there is a $
sign in certain results which changes a single to an out if a runner is in scoring position and two outs. But it seems to be a minor thing on most cards and the way it seems to be work is an absence of $ means you are more clutch. From watching a lot of games it seems (not certain) that hitters get worse in late-game pressure situations (game is tied or close) but I don't know how it does it. At this point I am not seeing clutch performance as being significant on cards and if the computer is using something else I don't know what it is.

Clutch goes both ways. If the $ signs are next to outs, in clutch situations the out becomes a hit. If the $ signs are next to hits, they become outs (as you point out above). Players are either one or the other.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 11 Nov 2014, 11:06 am

Thanks , it makes sense now. Guess I was just seeing non- clutch cards (but Molina for example has significant clutch numbers)
A quick survey of the top 50 players reveals about 11clutch players (out of 50) with Cardinals players (as one might expect given the numbers as a team in 2013 with runners in scoring position) being well- represented). Cano, Freeman, Holliday, Kipnis and Carpenter have significant clutch numbers.
User avatar
Rally Racer (Pro III)
 
Posts: 5047
Joined: 08 Apr 2002, 9:45 am

Post 21 Nov 2014, 9:55 pm

Well, I guess it's time to see what this new team can do. Before choosing a ballpark, I compared my team to my division mates. My pitching is relatively more prone to BP home-runs and my hitting pales in BP home-runs. Pitchers park it is. It grates on me to use AT&T (as a Nats fan) but it fits the profile - so be it.

I only have one hitter with big BP numbers (C.Davis) but he also has big natural HR numbers so I shouldn't be sapping him too much.

This is the most prep I've put into a team yet so I hope it pays off. Good luck, Freeman!
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 22 Nov 2014, 12:04 pm

Going into the draft I planned on getting 4 * pitchers so I could use a 4 man rotation and maximize the innings of my best pitchers, an extremely good defensive team team, and a left/handed power team that I could put into a park slanted towards lefties. Oh and minimize spending in relief . That's a more less or less what they got. Of course something has to give--to get good pitching and good defense, you are going to have a weaker offense .
The numbers : .274. .329 .470. (RHP)
.294. .337 .459 (LHP)
Well, it 's an offense I guess. I looked at my lefty power though and in my 1-17 ballpark my four power guys will see their power double as compared to say AT&T. I also got two lefty starters to give me an advantage at home as well. Scherzer, Cliff Lee, Zimmerman and Corbin is pretty much the staff I was looking for and with almost all 1s defensively should be hard to score on
I went back and looked at my first team that had Harvey and Jose Fernandez and started out slowly until I got better defense and the team took off in the second half . It's numbers offensively were
.275 .332 .441. (RHP) and .300 .356 .475 (LHP), so its numbers were fairly close to the present team. Defensively it was not close though. It's righty line- up had 5 2s and 3 3s plus 118 errors ( and a catcher with a 0 arm.)The lefty line-up cut the errors down to 80 but it had 2 4s, 2 3s, 2 2s and 2 1s. The current team has 7 1s and 1 3s against righties and 79 errors; 6 1s and 2 3s against lefties and 90 errors. I also think my current starting staff is better ; Harvey and Fernandez may be a tad better than Scherzer and Lee but the latter two are going to get about 8 extra starts; Zimmerman and Cobb are about the same and I like Corbin a bit better than Burnett. But the real difference is being able to not have a weak 5th starter like Ohlendorff. So overall my current staff is a good deal better, I think. The prior team had elite relief and this one does not. (Though I have a couple of good ones);I am gambling that won't make much of a difference. So if that team did well and was not oriented at all towards its home park I am hoping this iteration can improve on its finish. We'll see.
By the way , I also have -4 arms in right and left and a -2 arm in center. And a -1 catcher arm. That was also part of the plan. The theory here is cut down runs by limiting runner advancement. I am curious if this has a significant effect, as well.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 22 Nov 2014, 10:30 pm

By the way , on pitchers preferences where it says don't relieve b4 I think what are you telling the computer is how much fatigue are you willing to allow before a pitcher is replaced. So if you put F8 you are telling the computer to not take your pitcher out if he is not fatigued. But it's risky to put in a smaller number because now you are telling Hal to not relieve a pitcher until he reaches a certain fatigue level. A pitcher starts with F9 and goes down to F0. As he gets more fatigued outs start turning into hits.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 24 Nov 2014, 1:36 pm

Season starts tonight! I was happy to be able to significantly upgrade my offense by adding Rasmus and dropping Cain at the expense of relief pitching and a little defense (Rasmus is a 2). I am a bit thin in the 8th; may have to let my starters pitch until they drop...
User avatar
Rally Racer (Pro III)
 
Posts: 5047
Joined: 08 Apr 2002, 9:45 am

Post 24 Nov 2014, 4:58 pm

Yeah, my relief pitching stinks. My closer is Heath Bell. HEATH BELL, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!

I hope my starters can go long...
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 24 Nov 2014, 5:20 pm

Heath Bell! He was still pitching in 2013?i guess so. At least I have a decent closer in Chapman, though not much else.
Anyway, you always seem to have a good era.
I looked at your staff and your starters have low WHiP. That 's my theory, too; since half the rolls go on the batter's card, over which the pitcher has no control, then keeping runners to a minimum on the pitcher's card is the most important thing.
And having a pitcher 's ballpark helps a guy like Peavy with power problems. His hrs go down by more than half in AT&T as opposed to a park like Great American.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 2416
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 26 Nov 2014, 1:08 am

Well, tonight's games went well! My line -up loves non- elite right- handed pitching in my home park. Lee threw a no- hitter, too. Not bad . Now I get to deal with the two- time champion who keeps winding up in my division. He has two lefties and one of my hitters who crushed lefties is out for most of the series. And he has a hellacious offense. So I might be coming back to earth real soon...