Tunisia holds a special place in my heart. I lived there the summer of 1988 working on a University of Michigan archeological dig. I found the country absolutely seductive. The people were all wonderfully warm, and western in their manners and ways. Italian TV (broadcast from Sicily) was very popular. Many young people wanted to get to know us. Some wanted to know how to swear in English, and in exchange taught us how to swear in Arabic. Others invited us to their houses and offered us wonderful meals in exchange for good conversation. I distinctly remember relaxing one evening after a hard day working in the sun and shortly after the call to prayer was broadcast hearing Papa was a Rolling Stone wafting up through the palm fronds.

It was the summer after Ben Ali took power. He had replaced a dictator who had held power since independence from France. I remember people talking that they hoped things would change with the new president and that more opportunities would open up for the youth of the country.

I grew up and moved on and no longer know anyone in the country, but I couldn’t help but think of my time there with the shocking revolution that happened earlier this month. I would have thought that Tunisians were too western, not desperate enough, had too much to lose to revolt like that. But happen it did. Nice article about it here: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2011/01/31/110131taco_talk_coll

Key is the point: “On January 13th, the state security forces, after having killed dozens of unarmed civilians in the previous week, refused orders to keep shooting. The next day, Ben Ali and his wife fled fist-shaking mobs in the capital, Tunis, by hopping a private jet to Saudi Arabia.” What would have happened had the state security forces kept shooting? I think the revolution would have been a relatively minor revolt squashed by an iron boot. Would that happen in Egypt, or Algeria, or anywhere else in the Islamic world? It certainly didn’t happen in Iran; perhaps the difference between the recent Iranian revolt and the Tunisian revolution, is that the Iranian security forces didn’t stop shooting.

But from my experience there, the fact that the Tunisian security forces decided not to kill their fellow countrymen does not surprise me, and I hope this level of humanity is not peculiar to the Tunisians.

Geo, thanks for sharing ... I don't think that you can predict the course of a revolution. Was it preordained that the US turned into a democracy whereas France, Russia, and iran descended into different forms of terrible dictatorship? I sincerely hope that this one turns out well.

geojanes wrote: Would that happen in Egypt, or Algeria, or anywhere else in the Islamic world?

I guess we'll find out: Protests in Egypt and Lebanon

I don't know Tunisia. I did go to Morocco in 2009, which seems fairly similar. It is a monarchy rather than a republic, but seeing as Tunisia had only two presidents since independence, and both appeared to run the country as a personal fief, I'm not sure there's much difference. Certainly the Moroccan royals have a lot of fingers in a lot of pies, and corruption is pretty well assumed. Morocco also has it's fair share of repression and secret police.

How these things pan out is not easy to predict. Lebanon already had one go after Hariri was assassinated, but that didn't work out. Tunisia could go any way, really.

Compared to Morocco, Tunisia is older, more urban, has a much higher literacy rate. It is also richer and has very little net out-migration. It's ranked at 114 in the world in GDP per captia--just above Macedonia-- while Morocco has a GDP per capita half that of Tunisia. I had always assumed that places that are more desperate, like Morocco, are the types of places where this kind of popular uprising would be more likely to occur. I admit I have no evidence for that bias, but people who have nothing, have nothing to lose.

I agree, this all could end badly for the Tunisians. I dearly hope that it doesn't.

I was thinking culturally, rather than economically similar. But you have a point.

It's also possible that people who had something to lose, and feel that they lost it are more likely to be antsy than those who never had.

Copy cat demonstrations in Yemen and Egypt over the last few days....
A reminder of the period in europe when one after the other monarchy began to fall to revolution?
Or maybe not?

I must say I have my doubts about how genuine this Tunisian revolution really was. An established police state doesn't just collapse in a matter of days. It's noticeable that as soon as Ben Ali left the country the tanks rolled right back onto the streets and imposed martial law. This implies to me that something slightly fishy is going on. I'm sure the initial uprising was probably genuine but it seems probable that somebody from within the establishment saw it as an opportunity to mount a coup in all but name, get rid of Ben Ali and eventually replace him at the top with one of them, possibly even the head of the army. Guess we'll have to wait and see what happens, but I think we should be careful about jumping to too many conclusions.

I suppose it would be unstylishly neocon of me to suggest that the West and particularly the US should deploy its wealth and power in the cause of deposing characters like Ben Ali and Mubarak (or at least stop supporting them).

It's not about whether you are being fashionable, it's about the wisdom of such moves. It sounds great to remove a dictator from without. But the experience of Iraq shows that it's not really that easy. Not everyone would be happy to see Western force in their countries, and the Muslim Brotherhood are active in both Egypt and Tunisia. Giving them a ready-made target might not help much.

There's the question of who or what would replace such a dictator as well. Iraq and Afghanistan really have not been successes in terms of governance since we intervened. Corruption is endemic, Iran has a lot of ties to the new Iraqi leadership...

Your option in ellipses is not a bad one though. Your country could stop giving Egypt $2bn a year in military aid. I know that was partly the price of peace with Israel, but a lot of that seems to be used ensuring that the regime is secure from it's own people.

But the West supporting dictators is nothing new. Originally it was to make sure that they sided with us and not the Soviets. Or because they were already opposing nearby Soviet supported dictators. Now it's because they crack down on Islamists.

Machiavelli wrote:I suppose it would be unstylishly neocon of me to suggest that the West and particularly the US should deploy its wealth and power in the cause of deposing characters like Ben Ali and Mubarak (or at least stop supporting them).

Sounds a little like something Jimmy Carter's administration might do, at least the part about stopping support. Nice to see you in a big tent Barry.

I'm sure the initial uprising was probably genuine but it seems probable that somebody from within the establishment saw it as an opportunity to mount a coup in all but name, get rid of Ben Ali and eventually replace him at the top with one of them, possibly even the head of the army

The role of the military in the Jasmine Revolution is something could get quite interesting, as per an article published in The New York Times two days ago. The military withdrew from its defensive position in Tunis leading to Ben Ali’s hasty departure from the capital. With the police attempting to quell the protests, the military has interceded to protect the civilians from police brutality. General Rachid Ammar is reported to have said that “the army will protect the revolution.”

The protesters are demanding democracy but surely persistent chaos often gives ways to calls stability. The Daily Telegraph has some footage of the damage caused from rioting available on their website. The military – possibility the only institution in Tunis with the capacity to effectively maintain order – withdrew its support for the Ben Ali’s regime and transferred its support to the interim government, with Ammar calling for calm until elections can be held.

While the military establishment encouraging calm and patience while also protecting the protesters, it could simply be waiting for the appropriate moment to seize power. What are some thoughts on the prospect of a military government in Tunis?

I am not convinced that a long-term military government is likely. The problems facing the country do not lend themselves to military solutions, (Of course, in other countries, this hasn’t stopped the generals from exploiting the situation to their advantage.) But would a provisional military government – perhaps under General Rachid Ammar—be such a bad thing? That is, if they restored order to the country and shortly thereafter held a national election.

geojanes wrote:Sounds a little like something Jimmy Carter's administration might do, at least the part about stopping support. Nice to see you in a big tent Barry.

Yes, indeed. Carter would never go along with propping up a moribund Egyptian dictatorship with billions in US aid. Who was the miscreant who got us into that nasty relationship, anyway?

danivon wrote:Your country could stop giving Egypt $2bn a year in military aid. I know that was partly the price of peace with Israel, but a lot of that seems to be used ensuring that the regime is secure from it's own people.

The government in Egypt spends about $190 billion a year. Do you really suppose it's our $2 that's "ensuring" Mubarak's regime? And BTW, the amount has been decreasing steadily and is now down to about $1.5 billion - less than 1% of their government budget.

Minister X wrote:

danivon wrote:Your country could stop giving Egypt $2bn a year in military aid. I know that was partly the price of peace with Israel, but a lot of that seems to be used ensuring that the regime is secure from it's own people.

The government in Egypt spends about $190 billion a year. Do you really suppose it's our $2 that's "ensuring" Mubarak's regime? And BTW, the amount has been decreasing steadily and is now down to about $1.5 billion - less than 1% of their government budget.

Min X, per your source, the domestic aid has been going down but the military aid has remained at $1.3 billion a year. That cannot be endearing to the people of Egypt.

It's not that the US loves the Mubarak regime. I think it is more a question of the devil you know. On the flip side, we may be witnessing the creation of another Iran ...

Hmmm. My sources put Egyptian military spending at somewhere on the order of $3 billion yearly. If that's correct, our $1.3 billion a year plays a major role in funding the troops that keep Mr. Mubarak in power, eh MinX?