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- Sassenach
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19 May 2012, 3:11 pm
I wouldn't mind a Tobin tax if it meant that we got to keep the money that was raised in this country, but the proposal is that it goes to bail out the Eurozone, of which we're not a member. It's an utterly cynical ploy that can only damage Britain while not having any negatives for the beneficiaries. Agreeing to it would be the height of naivety.
In order to save the Euro what's needed is a massive fiscal transfer from the richer regions (Germany) to the poorer. If the Germans are unwilling to foot the bill then why the hell should we ?
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- Machiavelli
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23 May 2012, 8:12 pm
Heh. Amusing how it's always about transferring wealth from the people who are producing something to the ones who aren't. Seems to me what's needed is a massive rejection of f-ing laziness by a bunch of folks who work 30 hours a week (and get paid 14 months a year) until they retire at 50. But that ain't gonna happen until a bunch of 'em starve.
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- Sassenach
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23 May 2012, 10:16 pm
In fairness, a currency union could only ever work alongside some kind of mechanism for fiscal transfer. You have that in the States too, how long could the economy of Mississippi survive without being propped up by the richer states ? The problem with the Euro is that it was set up without any acknowledgement of this reality. Or rather, this reality was deliberately ignored in order to get it past a sceptical German public.
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- danivon
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23 May 2012, 11:50 pm
Still the canards over Greek working hours and retirement age, Mach?
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- Ray Jay
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24 May 2012, 5:01 am
Is it true that the Euro is built on German guilt, but that mostly everyone is afraid to say so?
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- danivon
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24 May 2012, 6:07 am
No, it's not true. It would appear to be more Franco-German hubris.
Europeans are not usually reticent to comment on German guilt.
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- Sassenach
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24 May 2012, 8:06 am
The Euro is supposedly the price extracted by Mitterand for agreeing to allow German unification. It never really had popular support in Germany, rather it was forced through by Helmut Kohl and only grudgingly accepted by the people after they were promised explicitly that it would a hard currency run along the same lines as the Bundesbank and wouldn't necessitate Germany having to bail out the weaker nations. This was a lie of course.
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- Ray Jay
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24 May 2012, 9:32 am
Sassenach wrote:The Euro is supposedly the price extracted by Mitterand for agreeing to allow German unification. It never really had popular support in Germany, rather it was forced through by Helmut Kohl and only grudgingly accepted by the people after they were promised explicitly that it would a hard currency run along the same lines as the Bundesbank and wouldn't necessitate Germany having to bail out the weaker nations. This was a lie of course.
Getting French permission for unification sounds like German guilt to me.
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- danivon
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24 May 2012, 9:48 am
Let's be fair, though. While the German people were not that much involved, their leaders were. They were, of course, likely to be thinking of the success of currency union in pre-unified Germany, working on the idea that the Mark would hold everyone up, and also that it would actually help the integration of East Germany.
The CDU under Kohl were pretty much for it, and they tended to win elections.
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- Sassenach
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24 May 2012, 10:02 am
Getting French permission for unification sounds like German guilt to me.
To an extent, yes. German guilt has always been one of the main drivers of the European project. Less so these days but back then it was a lot fresher.
To clarify, 'guilt' is probably the wrong choice of word. A generation of German politicians grew up with a very strong sense that they had a duty to be good Europeans, and this was in large part shared by the voters.
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- Magister Equitum
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02 Jun 2012, 10:48 pm
Then when you least expect it Germany will ask for Alsace-Lorraine...
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- Machiavelli
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04 Jun 2012, 10:16 am
Since I began expressing my concerns about the stability of the Euro several years ago, my friend Danvion and several other commentors here have been consistent in rejecting those concerns as ill-founded. While granting that the outcome for the Euro remains far from clear, I wonder whether in light of recent events Dan, goergejanes, Javelin, PCHiway or any of the others would like to revisit their dismissal of my concerns over the structural flaws in the Eurozone or whether they continue to think that the Euro is simply "too big to fail?"
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- geojanes
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04 Jun 2012, 1:59 pm
What I wrote on the first page is still what I believe today. From 18 months ago:
If Greece ends up dropping the Euro and reviving the Drachma, I don't think many people would say that is evidence the Euro failed. Rather, I would think that such an event would be evidence that Greece failed and was not able to bring the Euro down with it.
The Euro will persist, for the time-being, but states may adopt or drop out of it, and while that won't be easy, especially dropping out, I think some of the ideas you're floating (e.g. stockpiling food and antibiotics) are really quite out there.
The Euro serves a function, when it no longer serves a function it will end, but it hasn't reached that point, not yet anyway.
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- Machiavelli
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25 Jun 2012, 9:27 am
Consquencesof Euro breakup.
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- Machiavelli
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25 Jun 2012, 9:30 am
Machiavelli wrote:My best guess is that the more stable countries of northern Europe (Germany, Benelux (possibly exluding an independent Flanders), Denmark (even though it isn't currently a Euro user) and possibly Finland and one or two of the Baltic states) will end up in a currency union essentially dominated and directed by Germany. It's possible that France may somehow hang in with Germany for at least a few more years, or it may head up a second currency union (though why anyone would want to be part of it is beyond me). If that constitutes "survival" of the Euro, then I suppose the Euro will survive. It's very hard for me to see how a pan-European currency union, including the PIIGS, France and the less stable economies of the former east bloc and Germany/Benelux can possibly continue much longer.
Add Belgium to the PIIGS stack and this is looking more and more likely by the minute.
