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Post 21 Sep 2011, 9:17 pm

geojanes wrote:Now if you're serious about data:

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/08intop400.pdf

Table 3 (on page 12): 243 of the richest 400 Americans paid an effective tax rate of less than 20% in 2008.


Now George, this just seems to be cherry picking data. I mean it really seems has if Monte has pretty much answered all of your concerns with data that shows your concerns (and Buffets) claim are basically incorrect. And your response is 243 people paid taxes that you think were not enough?
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Post 22 Sep 2011, 8:13 am

geojanes wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:One mitigating point to keep in mind is that qualified dividends (and some non-qualified ones) are already taxed at the corporate rate of 34%. Cap gains works differently, but to the extent that dividend earners are paying a lower rate (15% vs. 35%) it is fully explained by the fact that money has already been taxed once.


Yeah, double taxation is a better argument when more corporations actually pay corporate taxes. As you know, many are able to show corporate profits, pay dividends, and pay little in the way of corporate income taxes. But some pay that full rate, others don't. The effective tax rate at the corporate level, I expect, has an even higher standard deviation than the highest personal income earners.


To pay dividends at the favorable rate, the corporation has to have had earnings and profits. The starting point for the calculation of E&P is taxable income. So, generally, the dividends that receive favorable tax treatment are from income that has previously been taxed. (Yes, there are some exceptions.)

geojanes wrote:Now if you're serious about data:

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/08intop400.pdf

Table 3 (on page 12): 243 of the richest 400 Americans paid an effective tax rate of less than 20% in 2008. Sure some paid over 30%, but most didn't. I know I paid 26.7% in 2008, and I'm guessing if you had a job in 2008, you, and Randy, and just about every employed person here with an above average income paid more than 20%. And that's not right. Working people--and I mean that literally: people with earned income as a majority of their total income--should not pay more of their income in taxes than most of the very rich.


Great data! I think that your case that people receiving cap gain income (and that's a lot of the income of the top 400) is persuasive. One mitigating factor is that cap gain income does not reflect inflation. So, if the investment was 30 years ago and the cap gain is being reported today, some of that income is really just a return of capital because a dollar today is not of the save value of a dollar in 1982. . Many conservatives call for inflation adjusted basis to rectify this, but that creates its own complications.

It's these sorts of moral dilemmas that create a complex tax code.

By the way, although I think that Obama's rhetoric is over the top, I do have sympathy for the view that cap gain rates can rise to 20% (Reagan's rate if I remember correctly).
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Post 22 Sep 2011, 9:37 am

Under Obama's health care law, families making over $250,000 will have a surtax of an additional 3.8% on their unearned income starting on 1/1/2013. Bush's tax cuts are scheduled to expire 12/31/2012. At that point the lower tax rate for dividends disappears and the cap gains rate goes back to 20%. So, if Obama gets his way, federal tax rates for those families making over $250,000 will be:

43.4% on dividends (and as we've seen this is income that's already been taxed in most cases)
23.8% on cap gains (and some of this isn't really income because of inflation between when bought and when sold)
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Post 22 Sep 2011, 10:40 am

Archduke Russell John wrote:]Now George, this just seems to be cherry picking data. I mean it really seems has if Monte has pretty much answered all of your concerns with data that shows your concerns (and Buffets) claim are basically incorrect. And your response is 243 people paid taxes that you think were not enough?
it's that 243/400 (c. 60%) of a slice of high earners are paying less than a large number of people on lower incomes.

It would be interesting to see what happens when you go down to the top 4,000, or top 40,000 earners, and at each stage more statistically useful. At what point would that cease to be 'cherry-picking' in your view?

Ruffhaus8 wrote:Brad continues to try to make people answer the question of just how much of our money should we be allowed to keep, which is where the debate of taxes and deficit reduction needs to begin.
[/quote]Is it? It seems reductionist to boil down what is a major problem to starting at one particular issue. Especially when the current situation is this:

1) The US had a structural deficit going into the 2008 recession
2) due to policy decisions, that deficit was rising even before the recession hit
3) the recession resulted in increased spending (even excluding the stimulus) and decreases tax income (even excluding the stimulus)
4) The stimulus policies of increased investment and spending and tax breaks will increase the deficit while they last

Starting at "we pay to much tax" would appear to ignore the "we keep electing parties of both colours which increase spending", the "we're in a particular hole that makes the problem look worse for now, but if we got out of that hole we would have a better view of the underlying problem", and the "we are paying less in tax than we have done for a generation or two".

My view is that you should look at the whole budget in context as a starting point. Sorry if that's too idealistic.
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Post 26 Sep 2011, 6:17 am

I keep coming back to this discussion since it is still the central question of our economy. How do we reverse economic decline in the US. When you cut through the discussions about Buffett's integrity and the fairness of favorable rates of income tax on capital (on which George makes some good points), my summary of this discussion is that left leaning economic people are calling for stimulus to be paid for by future tax increases on those making over $200,000 to $250,000 whereas right leaning economic people have suggested about 20 different measures, some better than others, that would improve productivity. My own sense is that the left has one note to play, and unfortunately it is a false note.

Here's an Op Ed from today's WSJ from the authors of "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis".

But boosting aggregate demand did not end the Great Depression. After the initial stock market crash of 1929 and subsequent economic plunge, a recovery began in the summer of 1932, well before the New Deal. The Federal Reserve Board's Index of Industrial production rose nearly 50% between the Depression's trough of July 1932 and June 1933. This was a period of significant deflation. Inflation began after June 1933, following the demise of the gold standard. Despite higher aggregate demand, industrial production was roughly flat over the following year.

The growth that followed the low point of the Depression was primarily due to productivity. Productivity is considered a supply-side factor by many economists: It is determined by the technology and regulatory structure of the economy and therefore is largely independent of spending policies.

The growth rate of real per capita output is the sum of the growth rate of per capita labor input and productivity growth. Increasing aggregate demand is supposed to increase output growth by increasing labor input. But between 1932 and 1934, the period that Mr. Bernanke cited in his speech, per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was entirely due to productivity growth, as per capita total hours worked—a standard measure of labor input—was actually, according to our research, lower in 1934 than it was in 1932.
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Post 26 Sep 2011, 9:56 am

Ray Jay wrote:My own sense is that the left has one note to play, and unfortunately it is a false note.
Stay classy!

When you look at what the recent proposals from the President include, it's not just about taxing the rich, is it? It's just that that part is the one that generates the most howling and wailing, and thus gets noticed, and the narrative created by the media (hardly the poorest people on the planet, media outlet owners) can skew perceptions
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Post 26 Sep 2011, 12:28 pm

danivon wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:My own sense is that the left has one note to play, and unfortunately it is a false note.
Stay classy!

When you look at what the recent proposals from the President include, it's not just about taxing the rich, is it? It's just that that part is the one that generates the most howling and wailing, and thus gets noticed, and the narrative created by the media (hardly the poorest people on the planet, media outlet owners) can skew perceptions


The President's one note is "Keynesian stimulus" consisting of temporary tax cuts and federal spending. What other note is he playing?
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Post 26 Sep 2011, 12:55 pm

And the right's one note is 'fiscal responsibility' consisting of spending cuts and with the hope of tax cuts too.

If you look at the internals of each, there's more to them. If you want to generalise, that's easy to do. As I said, 'stay classy'
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Post 26 Sep 2011, 12:57 pm

Well, on this thread we've mentioned 20 different ideas that would boost the economy; probably they can be divided into 3 to 5 main categories. Do any of them appeal to you?
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Post 26 Sep 2011, 11:33 pm

The use of assets one does, although I think sales may be of limited value compared to other means.
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Post 03 Oct 2011, 10:37 am

Regarding the original topic, of what I would do to help, I would tax not-for- profit corporations. This is again another topic--like high income people paying low tax rates--which I didn’t really understand until it impacted me closely. I was the executive director of a small NY based not-for profit during part of the ’00, and I learned so much not-for-profit corporations. First, the myth that not-for-profits don’t make profit is absurd. They typically make profit, and in some cases a lot of profit, and it’s all tax free, with some minor exceptions. They just can’t pay dividends, nor are they owned, so there is by definition no equity so they can’t be sold, but profit they do just fine. I looked at a lot of not-for-profit corps back then and I still have these data from Harvard College’s tax form:

Revenue..Expenses.....Net Profit....Net Margin
$4.34B......$2.57B..........$1.76B.........40.5%

These numbers were from 2004, so I thought, well, maybe they just had an exceptional year. Here are the numbers from 2005:

Revenue..Expenses.....Net Profit....Net Margin
$4.99B......$2.79B..........$2.20B.........44.1%

I know those look like gross margins, but they’re net. In fact, Harvard could have forgone all student contributions (tuition, room and board, health fees, library fines, registration and application fees, etc.) and still had net margins over 20%. To put this in perspective, when people were screaming about Exxon Mobil’s windfall profit during the 2008 oil surge, their net margin was about 13%. But in Harvard’s case, that profit is tax free. The property they hold? Exempt from local property taxes. In NY, some not for profits can even opt out of the state sponsored unemployment insurance. It’s pretty astounding how easy it is to set up a not-for-profit corporation, and how little scrutiny they are under. In my tenure at a not-for-profit, most of our revenue came on fee for service jobs where we directly competed against for-profit corporations, and we had a competitive advantage because we had a lower cost structure, because we didn’t pay taxes. It wasn’t right, and it wasn’t fair.

So in my perfect world I would tax not-for-profit corporations on both their income and their property. At what rate, I have no idea, but maybe something that equalized the taxing structure between NFP and for-profit corps would make sense.
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Post 03 Oct 2011, 11:15 am

It's a bold idea ... I don't see either political party supporting it. Let's put it on the shelf next to my legalize marijuana to improve productivity concept :wink:

As an eminently reasonable and intelligent Democrat, do you see my point that Obama is devoid of ideas to improve the economy. He's proposed Keynesian stimulus, and not much else. I don't think stimulus will work; other do; but in the end, it won't pass in any material way, so where's his Plan B? Doesn't he owe us that as our President? Is stimulus the only thing in his tool box? I'm trying to ask that in the classiest way I can.
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Post 03 Oct 2011, 12:24 pm

Ray Jay wrote:It's a bold idea ... I don't see either political party supporting it. Let's put it on the shelf next to my legalize marijuana to improve productivity concept :wink:


Yeah, it'll never happen. NFP orgs are our last sacred cow. Not only do we subsidize them in whole hosts of ways, we actually reach into our own wallets and give them more at the end of the year, voluntarily. Usually to an organization with people who make many times what we do. It's kinda nuts, but people are nuts when it comes to their sacred cows.

As an eminently reasonable and intelligent Democrat,


Hold on there, I've never voted in a democratic primary and have never been so registered. Also, I notice that you consider me eminently reasonable, not eminently intelligent. So many problems with this clause . . .

do you see my point that Obama is devoid of ideas to improve the economy. He's proposed Keynesian stimulus, and not much else. I don't think stimulus will work; other do; but in the end, it won't pass in any material way, so where's his Plan B? Doesn't he owe us that as our President? Is stimulus the only thing in his tool box?


Yeah, I don't know if stimulus will work. I know Krugman is big on it, and that it should be bigger and more sustained, essentially telling the world that if the gov't is going to throw money into the economy until it gets better, it'll get better faster, because what else are you going to do? Fight the govt? I don't know if there is a Plan B, if so, it hasn't really been promoted, by anyone, has it?

Some of the more ancillary Obama ideas, like reducing foreign energy dependence and increasing manufacturing exports, are two really good long-term things which will reduce the current account balance, which is essential to long-term economic sustainability. Short-term, they won't do too much, though. Some of the ideas in this thread are OK, but fall into the "small" category. The asset sales will get excess property back on the tax rolls and productive again. Ending ethanol and many other subsidies would be great. Trade agreements are usually a good thing, but doing away with Sarbanes Oxley? Hello? Anyone remember Enron? Sure let's increase certainty by requiring less certainty from the financial statements of our publicly traded corporations. :rolleyes: That one is being promoted by the fox to the chickens. But unless I'm missing something, none of suggestions here are to the scale that would make an immediate, measurable short-term economic improvements.

In short, the gov't controls the money supply, and is the consumer of last resort. Those are big things, but beyond those, what else can it do to make a really big impact on the short-term economy?
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Post 03 Oct 2011, 1:30 pm

geojanes wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:It's a bold idea ... I don't see either political party supporting it. Let's put it on the shelf next to my legalize marijuana to improve productivity concept :wink:


Yeah, it'll never happen. NFP orgs are our last sacred cow. Not only do we subsidize them in whole hosts of ways, we actually reach into our own wallets and give them more at the end of the year, voluntarily. Usually to an organization with people who make many times what we do. It's kinda nuts, but people are nuts when it comes to their sacred cows.

As an eminently reasonable and intelligent Democrat,


Hold on there, I've never voted in a democratic primary and have never been so registered. Also, I notice that you consider me eminently reasonable, not eminently intelligent. So many problems with this clause . . .

do you see my point that Obama is devoid of ideas to improve the economy. He's proposed Keynesian stimulus, and not much else. I don't think stimulus will work; other do; but in the end, it won't pass in any material way, so where's his Plan B? Doesn't he owe us that as our President? Is stimulus the only thing in his tool box?


Yeah, I don't know if stimulus will work. I know Krugman is big on it, and that it should be bigger and more sustained, essentially telling the world that if the gov't is going to throw money into the economy until it gets better, it'll get better faster, because what else are you going to do? Fight the govt? I don't know if there is a Plan B, if so, it hasn't really been promoted, by anyone, has it?

Some of the more ancillary Obama ideas, like reducing foreign energy dependence and increasing manufacturing exports, are two really good long-term things which will reduce the current account balance, which is essential to long-term economic sustainability. Short-term, they won't do too much, though. Some of the ideas in this thread are OK, but fall into the "small" category. The asset sales will get excess property back on the tax rolls and productive again. Ending ethanol and many other subsidies would be great. Trade agreements are usually a good thing, but doing away with Sarbanes Oxley? Hello? Anyone remember Enron? Sure let's increase certainty by requiring less certainty from the financial statements of our publicly traded corporations. :rolleyes: That one is being promoted by the fox to the chickens. But unless I'm missing something, none of suggestions here are to the scale that would make an immediate, measurable short-term economic improvements.

In short, the gov't controls the money supply, and is the consumer of last resort [or uses the tax-payers as proxy through tax cuts]. Those are big things, but beyond those, what else can it do to make a really big impact on the short-term economy?
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Post 03 Oct 2011, 1:30 pm

Ray Jay wrote:It's a bold idea ... I don't see either political party supporting it. Let's put it on the shelf next to my legalize marijuana to improve productivity concept :wink:


Yeah, it'll never happen. NFP orgs are our last sacred cow. Not only do we subsidize them in whole hosts of ways, we actually reach into our own wallets and give them more at the end of the year, voluntarily. Usually to an organization with people who make many times what we do. It's kinda nuts, but people are nuts when it comes to their sacred cows.

As an eminently reasonable and intelligent Democrat,


Hold on there, I've never voted in a democratic primary and have never been so registered. Also, I notice that you consider me eminently reasonable, not eminently intelligent. So many problems with this clause . . .

do you see my point that Obama is devoid of ideas to improve the economy. He's proposed Keynesian stimulus, and not much else. I don't think stimulus will work; other do; but in the end, it won't pass in any material way, so where's his Plan B? Doesn't he owe us that as our President? Is stimulus the only thing in his tool box?


Yeah, I don't know if stimulus will work. I know Krugman is big on it, and that it should be bigger and more sustained, essentially telling the world that if the gov't is going to throw money into the economy until it gets better, it'll get better faster, because what else are you going to do? Fight the govt? I don't know if there is a Plan B, if so, it hasn't really been promoted, by anyone, has it?

Some of the more ancillary Obama ideas, like reducing foreign energy dependence and increasing manufacturing exports, are two really good long-term things which will reduce the current account balance, which is essential to long-term economic sustainability. Short-term, they won't do too much, though. Some of the ideas in this thread are OK, but fall into the "small" category. The asset sales will get excess property back on the tax rolls and productive again. Ending ethanol and many other subsidies would be great. Trade agreements are usually a good thing, but doing away with Sarbanes Oxley? Hello? Anyone remember Enron? Sure let's increase certainty by requiring less certainty from the financial statements of our publicly traded corporations. :rolleyes: That one is being promoted by the fox to the chickens. But unless I'm missing something, none of suggestions here are to the scale that would make an immediate, measurable short-term economic improvements.

In short, the gov't controls the money supply, and is the consumer of last resort [or uses the tax-payers as proxy through tax cuts]. Those are big things, but beyond those, what else can it do to make a really big impact on the short-term economy?