Join In On The Action "Register Here" To View The Forums

Already a Member Login Here

Board index Forum Index
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 31 Aug 2016, 2:13 pm

rickyp wrote:http://www.techinsider.io/gms-first-autonomous-car-will-be-electric-and-launch-on-lyft-2016-7

https://www.quora.com/Will-all-autonomo ... e-electric

As I wrote here, EVs to reach tipping point in 2020s, cost less than gas cars, not only will all autonomous cars eventually be electric, but all vehicles generally will eventually be electric.


Autonomous cars and trucks are already being tested in Singapore. GM will launch autonomous cars on Lyft. (Eliminating the need for a driver is a huge economic advantage to a company like Uber or Lyft. Or a taxi compnay.) All automous cars will be electric because the engineering is easier. So there is another market factor pushing electric cars and trucks.

http://fortune.com/2016/08/25/self-driv ... singapore/

Its all going in one direction...


Sure it is.

It's about energy. You libs hate everything that keeps us out of caves.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 15952
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 31 Aug 2016, 4:48 pm

Seriously, DF? That is a pointless response.

Automated cars would appear to be about technological progress, not regression.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 31 Aug 2016, 5:17 pm

danivon wrote:Seriously, DF? That is a pointless response.

Automated cars would appear to be about technological progress, not regression.


Automated cars were not the point of my response.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10969
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 03 Sep 2016, 12:39 pm

fate
It's about energy. You libs hate everything that keeps us out of caves.


?
What's about energy?

There are a large number of factors that are driving electric cars, and energy use is only one.
When long range trucking firms can eliminate drivers, they will. (Whens the last time you saw an elevator operator?)Already many trains around the world are automated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... ay_systems
And electric trucks will make the transition to autonomous trucks easier. (engineering is easier by far)
- Besides the labor saving for fleet operation (Uber and or Lyft will move to autonomous vehicles. Driverless Ubers will be more popular with women who will see it as a safety feature. Plus eliminating the drivers eliminates many difficul to control factors.
- Electric cars are maintained much easier. The motors don't wear the same way gas engines do...
- Power use by electrical cars will occur mostly over night, when electrical generating capacities are usually very under utlized....

Besides: - Electricity consumption may go up with cars, but is being driven down rapidly by the speedy conversion from flourescent to LED lights. Currently making up about 10% of all electricity use in the US, LEDs use a quarter of the power and produce 4 times the light for same... The financial pay out is making this conversion happen very quickly. So capacity will be created by this saving...

There are just too many advantages for this (electric car growth) not to happen . And fairly quickly.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 04 Sep 2016, 11:26 am

rickyp wrote:fate
It's about energy. You libs hate everything that keeps us out of caves.


?
What's about energy?

There are a large number of factors that are driving electric cars, and energy use is only one.
When long range trucking firms can eliminate drivers, they will. (Whens the last time you saw an elevator operator?)Already many trains around the world are automated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a ... ay_systems
And electric trucks will make the transition to autonomous trucks easier. (engineering is easier by far)
- Besides the labor saving for fleet operation (Uber and or Lyft will move to autonomous vehicles. Driverless Ubers will be more popular with women who will see it as a safety feature. Plus eliminating the drivers eliminates many difficul to control factors.


Sure. What can go wrong? I mean it's not like an automated car would ever make an error that would cost someone their life, right?

Beyond that, why do you have to be so sexist?

- Electric cars are maintained much easier. The motors don't wear the same way gas engines do...


Yes, and the batteries are super-cheap.

- Power use by electrical cars will occur mostly over night, when electrical generating capacities are usually very under utlized....


Until they become more popular and overwhelm the grid . . .

The problem is we are going to see our production of electricity drop in the coming years. No one wants new power plants and coal plants are being shuddered by new EPA diktats. One of the nuclear plants in CA is going offline. Electricity prices are going to skyrocket.


There are just too many advantages for this (electric car growth) not to happen . And fairly quickly.


Sure. Okay.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10969
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 04 Sep 2016, 2:55 pm

fate
Sure. What can go wrong? I mean it's not like an automated car would ever make an error that would cost someone their life, right?

A lot less likely than a human driver.

You'll be aware of the many driver safety features in newer cars that take decisions out of the hands of drivers and into automated systems? See link...

"The movement toward autonomous vehicles — self-driving cars — has brought high-tech safety features to today's cars, too," says Jim Salek, vice president of property and casualty loss prevention and safety programs for USAA. "Many of the groundbreaking advances in the area of car safety have come from these efforts."


https://www.usaa.com/inet/wc/advice-aut ... irect=true

Cars are safer every day. They are becoming more autonomous every day too.

Fate
Yes, and the batteries are super-cheap

You've heard of the miracle of mass production?
Stem CTO: Lithium-Ion Battery Prices Fell 70% in the Last 18 Months

http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/07/ ... -expected/

Fate
Until they become more popular and overwhelm the grid . .
.
I don't think you understand how the grid works.
Peak demand is in the 8Am to 7PM period. Usually highest about 11AM to 2PM depending on the season.
The grid is overwhelmed when peak demand exceeds the capacity of the grid...
Electric cars will not affect peak demand because they will be charged over night, almost exclusively. Partly because they will be driven during the day, and partly because consumers will decide to charge in the night when power costs are lower. (I presume US electrical companies offer variable pricing. I just assumed because I have it, the US does too. I think its safe to say that if there are places that don't have it, there will be a move towards this...)

Fate
The problem is we are going to see our production of electricity drop in the coming years

Do you have any evidence to offer here..
All I could find in this vein was this study, which contradicts your claim.
http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

Fate
Sure. Okay.

Glad to help.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 05 Sep 2016, 1:45 pm

rickyp wrote:Cars are safer every day. They are becoming more autonomous every day too.


Yeah. Awesome. Just like Skynet.

Fate
Yes, and the batteries are super-cheap

You've heard of the miracle of mass production?


Sweet! Can't wait until there are hundreds of millions of them. When is that going to be? Will the grid hold up when there are 200 million cars charging overnight?

Electric cars will not affect peak demand because they will be charged over night, almost exclusively. Partly because they will be driven during the day, and partly because consumers will decide to charge in the night when power costs are lower. (I presume US electrical companies offer variable pricing. I just assumed because I have it, the US does too. I think its safe to say that if there are places that don't have it, there will be a move towards this...)


It's not all gravy; there are challenges. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/5180 ... -the-grid/

And, as I have said, we are looking at a power problem. California is a case study in how to ensure electric rates will go through the roof. They are heaping mandate after mandate on the electrical companies. Give it 10 years and California will be best known for brownouts and shortages.

You're playing Nostradamus. I'm willing to wait and see what happens.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 05 Sep 2016, 1:46 pm

Anyway, feel free to blather and predict.

This is like arguing over who is going to win the Super Bowl in 5 years.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10969
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 06 Sep 2016, 2:33 pm

fate
It's not all gravy; there are challenges. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/5180 ... -the-grid/

Not particularly difficult challenges.
The article says that there is plenty of power in non-peak periods, when electric cars are likely to be charged and that the issue of load demand management is being dealt with...

Fate
Give it 10 years and California will be best known for brownouts and shortages
.
You know that the tend is to improved electrical efficiency? And that one of the reasons this efficiency developed was the increasing cost of electricity?
Market forces and all that.

NEW YORK — The average amount of electricity consumed in U.S. homes has fallen to levels last seen more than a decade ago, back when the smartest device in people's pockets was a Palm Pilot and anyone talking about a tablet was probably an archaeologist or a preacher.

Because of more energy-efficient housing, appliances and gadgets, power usage is on track to decline in 2013 for the third year in a row, to 10,819 kilowatt-hours per household, according to the Energy Information Administration.

That's the lowest level since 2001, when households averaged 10,535 kwh. And the drop has occurred even though our lives are more electrified.


Fate
You're playing Nostradamus

Fate
[quote]Give it 10 years and California will be best known for brownouts and shortages.[/quote

I'm just pointing out the trends in evidence Fate. Its pretty clear what the direction is, and its clearer every day what the time table is...
Nostradamus should have been this clear...
User avatar
Dignitary
 
Posts: 3210
Joined: 02 Oct 2000, 9:01 am

Post 15 Nov 2017, 4:25 pm

Really interesting to go back and look at this thread going back six years. Things have changed a lot. Take a look at this deck Mary Barra presented today:

https://www.gm.com/content/dam/gm/event ... 11-15-2017

Hardly an SUV in it. It's all about EV, ride sharing and self-driving. That's the new GM, the corporation that killed the electric car in 1999 is embracing it in 2017
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10969
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 16 Nov 2017, 7:51 pm

And yet GM is behind the curve....

Last year, Volkswagen announced that it would attempt to bring 30 or more BEVs to market by 2025, with a target of 2 million to 3 million sold by that year, roughly 25 percent of its total sales. This year, the company upped the ante again, vowing to create electric versions of all 300 of its models. (After its diesel scandal debacle, Volkswagen is all in on electrics.)
In March, Daimler (owner of Mercedes-Benz) announced it was accelerating its EV program and would have 10 new EVs to market by 2022.
In July, Volvo announced that all its models introduced in 2019 and after would be hybrid or electric.
This month, BMW announced that by 2025 it would have 12 new BEVs and 13 new hybrids on the road.
This month, Jaguar Land Rover announced that all of its new models from 2020 onward would be hybrid or electric.
And of course there are big electric car companies like Tesla, which plan to sell 100 percent BEVs now and forever.


https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environm ... revolution
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10969
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 18 Nov 2017, 1:48 pm

And then Elon announces his new Semi.

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-se ... attached-2

Loblaw has already bought 25. Walmart 10 and other major companies are plunking down deposits for 2019 delivery already.

The cost of operating a diesel semi is currently about a $1.51 a mile. Musk claims the Tesla Semi will cost $1.26 a mile.
If that economic advantage is actually there .... And its not hard to believe, the transformation to electric will be quicker than predicted. There are just too many companies fully committed to the market now and competition is going to begin exploding growth.

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/259 ... ick-charge
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10969
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 02 Dec 2017, 10:18 am

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/30/technol ... index.html

General Motors said Thursday that by the end of 2019 it will be mass-producing fully autonomous electric cars.
The cars will be used for a new GM ride-sharing service which, the automaker said, could ultimately be bigger than its current business of simply selling cars.
It's the first step toward a massive shift in its business -- moving away from selling cars to customers to selling rides in autonomous cars.
Today, GM (GM) makes about $30,000 over the lifetime of every vehicle it sells, GM president Don Ammann said. But selling rides in driverless cars could mean that figure balloons to hundreds of thousands of dollars per car.
The profits per car could be big because electric cars will eventually cost less to make and, since they don't use gasoline, cost less to run. And since they're autonomous, GM won't have to pay drivers. All of these factors should bring down the cost enough to make the service much more attractive to customers than today's ride-sharing services.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 02 Dec 2017, 11:11 am

rickyp wrote:http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/30/technology/gm-autonomous-cars-2019/index.html

General Motors said Thursday that by the end of 2019 it will be mass-producing fully autonomous electric cars.
The cars will be used for a new GM ride-sharing service which, the automaker said, could ultimately be bigger than its current business of simply selling cars.
It's the first step toward a massive shift in its business -- moving away from selling cars to customers to selling rides in autonomous cars.
Today, GM (GM) makes about $30,000 over the lifetime of every vehicle it sells, GM president Don Ammann said. But selling rides in driverless cars could mean that figure balloons to hundreds of thousands of dollars per car.
The profits per car could be big because electric cars will eventually cost less to make and, since they don't use gasoline, cost less to run. And since they're autonomous, GM won't have to pay drivers. All of these factors should bring down the cost enough to make the service much more attractive to customers than today's ride-sharing services.


I love words like “could” and “should.”

That’s almost like “will,” except not.
User avatar
Dignitary
 
Posts: 3210
Joined: 02 Oct 2000, 9:01 am

Post 02 Dec 2017, 11:20 am

Brad wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:
geojanes wrote:What makes some people--even experienced people--like the good Doctor, comfortable with saying things like: "XX will never happen."? Life has taught me not to make pronouncements that use the word never, because things that will "never happen," happen all the time! I also put emphatic predictions in the same category (remember "the Euro will fail within the next 12 months." thread?) How can one be so sure, knowing that there are so many unknown unknowns?

Do I think the Volt will sell well? Considering its track record, probably not, but knowing how the industry works, I expect that the technology will be refined and in the next product cycle, GM will rebrand it, and put it into another make/model and that may very well sell. Is that a failure? Meh. Does it really matter?


The Volt has such a negative reputation. They might as well try to bring back the Vega or maybe the Corvair.

It is far more likely that GM will, uh, pull the plug on the Volt. Over/under on its life expectancy: 3 more model years.


I'll take the under.


You both lose. http://www.chevrolet.com/electric/volt-plug-in-hybrid