geojanes wrote:

Brad wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:

geojanes wrote:What makes some people--even experienced people--like the good Doctor, comfortable with saying things like: "XX will never happen."? Life has taught me not to make pronouncements that use the word never, because things that will "never happen," happen all the time! I also put emphatic predictions in the same category (remember "the Euro will fail within the next 12 months." thread?) How can one be so sure, knowing that there are so many unknown unknowns?

Do I think the Volt will sell well? Considering its track record, probably not, but knowing how the industry works, I expect that the technology will be refined and in the next product cycle, GM will rebrand it, and put it into another make/model and that may very well sell. Is that a failure? Meh. Does it really matter?

The Volt has such a negative reputation. They might as well try to bring back the Vega or maybe the Corvair.

It is far more likely that GM will, uh, pull the plug on the Volt. Over/under on its life expectancy: 3 more model years.

I'll take the under.

You both lose. http://www.chevrolet.com/electric/volt-plug-in-hybrid

No, taxpayers lose. $7500 per vehicle.

Doctor Fate wrote:No, taxpayers lose. $7500 per vehicle.

Personal responsibility, let me introduce you to Fate. Have you ever met? No? You should get to know each other.

The Business case for autonomous cars and especially trucks is enormous. And there are all kinds of societal changes that also make them more attractive.
Autonomous cars don't work except as electric cars. (Hybrids have too many operational problems Geo).
GM is laying out its future, and it isn't selling cars. Its operating a fleet of electric autonomous cars.
When this is the plan for GM, and where Ford has already partnered with Lyft ... I can't see where there is a significant argument that can point to a rosy future for gas powered vehicles. Or for that matter, car dealerships...

Consumers will like the move to autonomous fleets as it means they don't have to plan for ownership, insurance, maintenance or even parking. In most large cities car ownership is dropping already.
Road safety will be remarkably enhanced. And when the last self driven trucks leave the scene ... another easily used weapon for terrorists..

geojanes wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:No, taxpayers lose. $7500 per vehicle.

Personal responsibility, let me introduce you to Fate. Have you ever met? No? You should get to know each other.

Because "personal responsibility" means "government subsidization?"

rickyp wrote:The Business case for autonomous cars and especially trucks is enormous. And there are all kinds of societal changes that also make them more attractive.
Autonomous cars don't work except as electric cars. (Hybrids have too many operational problems Geo).
GM is laying out its future, and it isn't selling cars. Its operating a fleet of electric autonomous cars.
When this is the plan for GM, and where Ford has already partnered with Lyft ... I can't see where there is a significant argument that can point to a rosy future for gas powered vehicles. Or for that matter, car dealerships...

Consumers will like the move to autonomous fleets as it means they don't have to plan for ownership, insurance, maintenance or even parking. In most large cities car ownership is dropping already.
Road safety will be remarkably enhanced. And when the last self driven trucks leave the scene ... another easily used weapon for terrorists..

Because . . .

There's no way their OS will ever be hacked.

Computer systems are infallible.

Electrical systems are fool-proof.

Our electrical grid is safe, secure, and virtually limitless.

Fate

Because . . .
There's no way their OS will ever be hacked.
Computer systems are infallible.
Electrical systems are fool-proof.
Our electrical grid is safe, secure, and virtually limitless.

Nothing is perfect. And yet air traffic control has been computerized for decades and air travel is incredibly safe. Large passenger Planes regularly fly on autopilot their entire flights. Elevators are automated and yet we seldom hear of an elevator death... Several commuter train systems are completely automated, and all depend upon computer control of traffic.
The current human driven cars and trucks are so safe? In the US alone, According to data compiled by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), in 2016, 37,461 people were killed in 34,436 crashes, an average of 102[1] per day.
Around the world; Nearly 1.3 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44. Automated cars will probably not completely eliminate accidents. But the improvement over the current plague of traffic deaths will be enormous.
No, electrical systems are not fool proof. Neither are pipelines or tanker trucks and trains distributing fuel. When pipelines fail, they pollute. When tankers crash, they kill. When electrical systems fail there can be consequences, but never to the extent that oil tankers can..And with tankers its almost always human error.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lac-M%C3% ... l_disaster

The electrical grid is undergoing revolutionary changes based upon the experience of the architecture of the Internet and the vast improvements in both generation of electricity through renewable sources and the the cascading improvements in storage .
Its possible that many charging stations can be constructed right off the grid. That's how many of the rural communities in places like India, still without electricity, are gaining electrical service. Tesla already provides 100% of an American Samoan islands' electricity through solar and Tesla power pack batteries...

People with a lot more experience, knowledge, expertise and education then you have, have worked this out Fate. When companies like GM and Ford are moving their massive corporations towards electrical self driving cars, they concluded it is not only possible but optimum.
You are just an addled old man shaking his fist at the clouds...

Doctor Fate wrote:

geojanes wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:No, taxpayers lose. $7500 per vehicle.

Personal responsibility, let me introduce you to Fate. Have you ever met? No? You should get to know each other.

Because "personal responsibility" means "government subsidization?"

No. But being able to admit when you're wrong is a sign of good character and personal responsibility, IMHO. We need more people who can say, "boy I didn't see that coming, I was wrong." Can you do that?

geojanes wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:

geojanes wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:No, taxpayers lose. $7500 per vehicle.

Personal responsibility, let me introduce you to Fate. Have you ever met? No? You should get to know each other.

Because "personal responsibility" means "government subsidization?"

No. But being able to admit when you're wrong is a sign of good character and personal responsibility, IMHO. We need more people who can say, "boy I didn't see that coming, I was wrong." Can you do that?

Sure, I was wrong that the Volt would bomb. I should have known the government would keep propping it up. I was wrong in that I thought even Socialist Democrats would eventually give the cars over to market forces.

rickyp wrote:Fate

Because . . .
There's no way their OS will ever be hacked.
Computer systems are infallible.
Electrical systems are fool-proof.
Our electrical grid is safe, secure, and virtually limitless.

Nothing is perfect. And yet air traffic control has been computerized for decades and air travel is incredibly safe. Large passenger Planes regularly fly on autopilot their entire flights. Elevators are automated and yet we seldom hear of an elevator death... Several commuter train systems are completely automated, and all depend upon computer control of traffic.
The current human driven cars and trucks are so safe? In the US alone, According to data compiled by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), in 2016, 37,461 people were killed in 34,436 crashes, an average of 102[1] per day.
Around the world; Nearly 1.3 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44. Automated cars will probably not completely eliminate accidents. But the improvement over the current plague of traffic deaths will be enormous.
No, electrical systems are not fool proof. Neither are pipelines or tanker trucks and trains distributing fuel. When pipelines fail, they pollute. When tankers crash, they kill. When electrical systems fail there can be consequences, but never to the extent that oil tankers can..And with tankers its almost always human error.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lac-M%C3% ... l_disaster

The electrical grid is undergoing revolutionary changes based upon the experience of the architecture of the Internet and the vast improvements in both generation of electricity through renewable sources and the the cascading improvements in storage .
Its possible that many charging stations can be constructed right off the grid. That's how many of the rural communities in places like India, still without electricity, are gaining electrical service. Tesla already provides 100% of an American Samoan islands' electricity through solar and Tesla power pack batteries...

People with a lot more experience, knowledge, expertise and education then you have, have worked this out Fate. When companies like GM and Ford are moving their massive corporations towards electrical self driving cars, they concluded it is not only possible but optimum.
You are just an addled old man shaking his fist at the clouds...

And, you’re just a jackass.

Even the examples you cite are ridiculous: we’ve not rid ourselves of air traffic controllers; we still have pilots. Elevators are not comparable to cars.

Get a grip on reality.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2018/ ... t-is-dead/

Goodbye Volt!

Doctor Fate wrote:https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2018/11/26/watch-six-years-ago-obama-promised-to-buy-a-chevy-volt-now-it-is-dead/

Goodbye Volt!

The Volt is dead, long live the Bolt!

https://insideevs.com/global-chevy-bolt-sales-up-nearly-20-u-s-allocation-rises-south-korea-falls/

It's pretty clear that pure electric vehicles have won over the gas/electric hybrid, I think in no small part to Tesla pushing the more established players to do better. Probably no better example of the benefit of competition for consumers than automobiles.

The EV numbers just keep going up, especially now that Tesla's seems to have figured out how to make cars:

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Lots of losers on this list but hard to argue about the direction.

Predictions are hard.

Well, this one wasn't really so hard, TBH.

https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/articles/new-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-united-states-nearly-doubled-2020-2021

I've owned my Kona plug in all electric for a full year now and am very happy not stopping for gas ...

After living for 20+ years without a car, we got a Pacifica Hybrid. Shortly afterwards, the garage in our building changed management, and the old management company took the charger, and we had no way to charge it. It was a plug-in hybrid, so it wasn't catastrophic, just annoying.

Earlier this year, the car was recalled because there was a chance it could catch on fire when it was parked and unused. The solution was to keep it parked outdoors, uncharged, until they developed a fix, which is just not an option for us. So we loaned the car to our kid, who parked it at his college campus and Chrysler rented us a car for what turned into about 100 days, which was the time it took for them to develop a fix. The cost to Chrysler just for our car rental was about $9,000.

You could say that that these experiences show that the world isn't ready for electric, but the new management company eventually got a charger, and the problem the car had was addressed. I think these are the kinds of things that happen when new systems, new technologies challenge older systems and technologies, and, eventually the new systems will win.