My 2022 predictions were horrid, but I am daring anyway!

President
Trump 296
Harris 242

Senate
GOP 52 (maybe 53?)
DEM 46
IND 2

House
GOP 223
DEM 212

Anyone else?

Oh, I love this game, but I'm waiting until we're closer. We might still have an October surprise coming.

i have no idea, but I'm rooting for divided government.

I always root for a minimalist government based upon the powers given in the US Constitution (not implied powers, mind you).

I will be using this site to come up with my election map. Bbauska, I would like to see how your electoral count maps by state, if you haven't done it yet, you should:

https://www.270towin.com/

Oh, hell, I might as well put it how there now. I reserve the right to change my mind:

I think Latinos don't support Harris as much as they did Biden. That means Harris losses in AZ and NV. I think the same of black voters, are going slightly more Trump, that means NC and GA go red.

Trump fails the upper Midwest decency test, and they go Harris, along with PA, helped by the popularity of D administrations in each of those states

My biggest worry about this prediction is MI's Arab voters, who have been democratic, but not for good reason, because they are are very socially conservative, generally. Throw in the war in Israel, and MI's Arabs may very well flip the state to Trump, and no way Harris can survive that with the map the way it is now.

bbauska wrote:https://www.270towin.com/maps/k1xXP

We disagree on 3 states

I think Harris wins MI and PA, you think Trump
I think Trump wins NV and you think Harris.

I think you are underestimating the power of Shapiro to affect things around the edges. And I mean cheerleader stuff only. I think a swing of 5% of Hispanic voters to Trump will make NV difficult for Harris to win, but it's super close, for sure.

I think the Frack vote hurts Harris (PA)
I think the EV car vote hurts Harris (MI)
I think the Vegas Weird vote hurts Trump (NV)

Basically the blue collar vote will hurt Harris to the extant that Trump will win the election.

geojanes wrote:I will be using this site to come up with my election map. Bbauska, I would like to see how your electoral count maps by state, if you haven't done it yet, you should:

https://www.270towin.com/

Thank you, George. I couldn't remember where the link was to post your own version of the map was. I thought it was RealClear Politics. Getting oldtimers disease...

geojanes wrote:I think Latinos don't support Harris as much as they did Biden.

That was before the Nazi rally at MSG where they called Puerto Rico "garbage." Of course, there aren't too many Boricuas in NV and AZ, so I'm not sure how material that's going to be.

Of course that comedian was in error with his comments. I also agree that there are few PRs in NV and AZ (comparatively).

Then there is President Biden calling half of the United States garbage also.

Side note: I have been to Puerto Rico many times. There are some very beautiful areas there, and some places that are not as beautiful. My best view in PR was a morning sunrise run to the eastern point of the island to the old fort. Amazing...

I'm going bold here and predicting Trump evens wins the popular vote.