freeman3 wrote:Given the threat Trump poses to our way of life, the only thing that happens is who can beat Trump. Nothing else matters. And I don't see that type of analysis from Silver. Biden has done reasonably well as president, the economy is good, he passed significant legislation, he's the incumbent, he appeals to centrist voters. And somehow the Dems are just goimg to find somebody who will do better because voters have concern about Biden's mental sharpness? Who would it be? Newsom? A California liberal? Biden is Trump's Kryptonite and changing to someone else is way too risky.

In any case, if someone is going to argue that Biden shouldn't run, propose an alternative and argue they have a better chance of winning. I don't see it...but that's the argument that needs to be made if you want Biden to bow out.

Do you still hold to the opinion that Biden has the best chance to win?

Trump Biden
Top Battlegrounds 46.7 42.4 Trump +4.3
Arizona July 19th 47.4 41.4 Trump +6.0
Nevada July 19th 47.7 42.6 Trump +5.1
Wisconsin July 19th 46.6 43.3 Trump +3.3
Michigan July 19th 44.0 42.3 Trump +1.7
Pennsylvania July 19th 47.9 43.4 Trump +4.5
North Carolina July 19th 47.2 41.5 Trump +5.7
Georgia July 19th 46.2 42.2 Trump +4.0

bbauska wrote:

freeman3 wrote:Given the threat Trump poses to our way of life, the only thing that happens is who can beat Trump. Nothing else matters. And I don't see that type of analysis from Silver. Biden has done reasonably well as president, the economy is good, he passed significant legislation, he's the incumbent, he appeals to centrist voters. And somehow the Dems are just goimg to find somebody who will do better because voters have concern about Biden's mental sharpness? Who would it be? Newsom? A California liberal? Biden is Trump's Kryptonite and changing to someone else is way too risky.

In any case, if someone is going to argue that Biden shouldn't run, propose an alternative and argue they have a better chance of winning. I don't see it...but that's the argument that needs to be made if you want Biden to bow out.

Do you still hold to the opinion that Biden has the best chance to win?

Trump Biden
Top Battlegrounds 46.7 42.4 Trump +4.3
Arizona July 19th 47.4 41.4 Trump +6.0
Nevada July 19th 47.7 42.6 Trump +5.1
Wisconsin July 19th 46.6 43.3 Trump +3.3
Michigan July 19th 44.0 42.3 Trump +1.7
Pennsylvania July 19th 47.9 43.4 Trump +4.5
North Carolina July 19th 47.2 41.5 Trump +5.7
Georgia July 19th 46.2 42.2 Trump +4.0

The betting markets have Trump at 71%, K. Harris at 22%, Biden at 10%, and M. Obama at 4%. If Freeman is confident he can make a killing.

https://www.oddstrader.com/betting/anal ... tion-odds/

"FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance."

You got your polls...and I got mine.

And polls the last few years have tended to overestimate Repub's chances...by a lot.

There really seems to be an unholy alliance between rich men--both conservative and liberal--who want Trump to win. Rich Democratic donors are pressuring Dems by threatening to withhold money unless Biden resigns. They're afraid of Biden taxing them and would like Trump's tax cuts, even though quite clearly Biden's economic policies have been more successful.

Dems on Twitter are outraged at this undemocratic attempt to oust Biden. They couldn't beat him in the primaries and now just want to come in and have their preferred candidate picked by a few rich men? At the very least they have sowed division which could help Trump. Pretty clear as well major media has been biased in favor of Trump. Back in 2016 & 2020 that might have been for ratings but now it appears to be ideological. CNN and Twitter were taken over strategically to hurt Dems for 2024 and MSNBC has clearly moved to the right as well.

But we're used to the Establishment caving in to Trump. If Biden stays I'm confident that average Americans are not choosing a Fascist convicted con man that is a pawn of Russia who poses a threat to their freedoms over Biden. It's really quite absurd to think they would when you think about it...

Biden is out. He stepped out of the race 21JUL24.

What happens now?

What happens to the Biden election money?

bbauska wrote:Biden is out. He stepped out of the race 21JUL24.

What happens now?

What happens to the Biden election money?

Re the 2nd question: I think the money goes to a pac that supports Harris, or Harris scoops the funds as needed. If it goes to court it will be over with by the time the SC rules.

For the first, I think Harris has a chance to rise to the moment, but her history suggests it's beyond her. If she picks a smart running mate (somewhat in the center from a battleground state) and starts to sound wise, presidential, and possessing common sense, who knows. Trump is the favorite, but he can get in his own way.

Stay tuned ...

From what I've read, as long as Harris is still on the ticket she can access it. But she has raised a lot of money already.

I'm not a big Kamala fan but the main thing is she needs to start to craft a message more appropriate for people in the center. She's used to California where you just need to beat Dems and Repubs are not relevant. But her first speech again was more aimed at the base. We'll see if she learns.

I don't see how it made any strategic sense to throw away incumbency and an objectively successful admin with a president who appeals to centrist voters and knows how to talk to them for a Dem from California who has no idea on how to talk to people from the mid-west but here we are. It was terribly undemocratic--overruling 14 million Dem voters by donors threatening to cut off money for Biden and down ballot races-- and I'm not sure that the people did so in good faith. Because turning to Kamala--untested and not even being competitive in the presidential primaries in 2020--is a Hail Mary in comparison to Biden. But she has been given the opportunity, let's see what she can do with it.

I would say Mark Kelly for VP. In fact, I think my preferred ticket is Buttigieg-Kelly. I know it's not feasible, though

freeman3 wrote:From what I've read, as long as Harris is still on the ticket she can access it. But she has raised a lot of money already.

I'm not a big Kamala fan but the main thing is she needs to start to craft a message more appropriate for people in the center. She's used to California where you just need to beat Dems and Repubs are not relevant. But her first speech again was more aimed at the base. We'll see if she learns.

I don't see how it made any strategic sense to throw away incumbency and an objectively successful admin with a president who appeals to centrist voters and knows how to talk to them for a Dem from California who has no idea on how to talk to people from the mid-west but here we are. It was terribly undemocratic--overruling 14 million Dem voters by donors threatening to cut off money for Biden and down ballot races-- and I'm not sure that the people did so in good faith. Because turning to Kamala--untested and not even being competitive in the presidential primaries in 2020--is a Hail Mary in comparison to Biden. But she has been given the opportunity, let's see what she can do with it...

Biden is mentally declining and it's not just old age. Specialists in the field write that it may be worse than we realize and the decline will progress fast.. You don't want him to do a press conference in late October.

Maybe. I don't think that had been clearly established. His post-debate appearances indicate he still had his faculties for the most part. And I would think any reputable specialist would need to actually examine him before giving a definitive opinion.

Anyway, it doesn't matter now; it's done. Given Trump is the opponent--intending to change our democracy forever, undermine the free world, deport millions of people, and makes thing worse for most people here with his policies--Kamala Harris should win. Frankly, I would vote for almost anyone against Trump. I don't see how any centrist voters could consider voting for Trump; it makes zero sense to me. But apparently according to polls they are. Baffling.

Trump's chances are down from 71% to 60% per the betting markets. A lot can happen with the VP pick, Democratic convention, and debates. Stay tuned ...

One can hope! It certainly has energized the Democratic base for some reason.

Goodness knows what that would be.

bbauska wrote:Goodness knows what that would be.

Because she is a better candidate than Biden. From my overseas perspective, Biden should have ruled himself out a year ago, and Harris would probably have won the Primaries.

We can also see how desperate the Trump fans are to attack her, using dog-whistle politics

On the betting markets, they don't tell you about voting, but about betting.

The odds are based on the house maximising return regardless of the outcome. Even movements in betting markets don't tell you as much as we think.

The one allowable prejudice left is against old people, particularly in the US...clearly younger voters are excited about a candidate they can relate to better and POC and women are excited about a candidate that is not an old white male.

It is amusing that the Trumpies are having a difficult job figuring out how exactly to criticize Harris because just doing so on being black and a woman are not acceptable unlike their crusade with regard to Biden's age that finally paid dividends.

I think Biden did an excellent job as POTUS but that never translated into bring a great candidate. He's better at the job than he ever in getting people fired up like an Obama.

It would definitely would have been better if Harris had won the primaries. That's the way it should have been done. Unlike this undemocratic crowning. But I want her to win because the alternative is Trump and that would have a real negative impact on people's lives. I'm not exactly happy at the shabby way Biden was treated but I guess he and I will get over it. The issues at stake are too big for me to not give Harris 100% support at this point. And there is no doubt that her winning would be a great inspiration for women/POC.