"While a third-party candidate can’t win, No Labels could still throw the election to Trump, and it wouldn’t take that many votes. Let’s look at three battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump’s margin of victory was less than 50,000 votes in these states, and third parties won significantly more votes than that in each one. "
"A No Labels candidate in these states could easily hand the election to Trump. But maybe that’s the goal. Whatever their original intentions, the people behind No Labels — including Harlan Crow, the GOP mega-donor who gifted travel and luxury vacations to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas — are using dark money on this folly. The group is working to raise $70 million and has already qualified for the ballot in 12 states..."
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... s-00132066"Then there’s Ross Perot, who No Labels aspires to emulate for his appeal to “ the vast middle of the electorate.” Despite unlimited cash and facing an unpopular incumbent in George H.W. Bush and a near-unknown in Bill Clinton, Perot failed to win a single state."
"Look at the last half-century of election results. In modern U.S. presidential history, third parties have not won much. In 1968, George Wallace won 46 electoral votes by running a regionally-targeted (and racist) campaign. Since then, they’ve won zilch — not a single state"
"The Wall Street Journal did an analysis that showed third parties would more likely draw votes from Biden. The report points to an NBC survey that has Biden and Trump tied head to head, but if you add a third-party candidate, Trump leads by 3 percent. (Of course, this math might change if Liz Cheney or RFK Jr. make a serious run.) New polling of young voters shows a similar dynamic, shrinking Biden’s lead with the introduction of third parties."
Third parties help one side or the other. Harlan Braun ain't supporting No Labels because he thinks it helps Biden. No Labels is either deluded (or much more likely) consciously trying to sway the election for Trump. That's the reality. I'm not worried about Biden losing to Trump straight up but a well-funded third party taking votes from Trump might give him a chance.
I really don't know why you think a compromise third-party is a good thing, Brad. They have zero chance of winning so it really comes who do they take more votes from. Given their secrecy about funding I think their likely intent is to help Trump but even if that isn't their intent that will be the likely effect. I mean, if you were uncertain about the effect--whether it would help Trump or Biden--the risk that it would help Trump is more of a concern. Trump needs/wants chaos to have a chance to win...