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- rickyp
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06 Mar 2023, 9:27 am
freeman3
You do realize that without Biden's strong leadership the West would have abandoned Ukraine?
Biden has been enormous. But don't discount the willingness of most of Europe to help. Especially the small nations have been providing weapons systems they can quickly replace to Ukraine...
The question isn't abandonment. The question is whether the scale of support required could have been done without the US...
It seems that the Russians are trying to run Ukraine out of munitions with human wave assaults by untrained conscripts... Whilst attacking the infrastructure with missiles.
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- freeman3
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07 Mar 2023, 4:23 pm
Putin's whole plan was for Trump to win reelection in 2020 and then not support Ukraine. Without US support Germany would have completely, folded, having been made dependent on gas by really bad decisions on Nordstream. No way other European nations would have funded Ukraine if US disengaged. It's not Ukraine would have just lost US support; they would have lost the support of other European countries.
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- geojanes
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03 Apr 2023, 7:45 pm
Thoughts on the possibility of an Ukr Spring Offensive? (This used to be a Diplomacy website.)
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- freeman3
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03 Apr 2023, 8:44 pm
Well, they're getting Leopard & Abrams Tanks, MIG-29, etc while Russia is frittering away troops on an offensive that is stalling around Bakhmut. Can't imagine Russian troops morale is that great right now. And Ukraine is talking about it. It would seem to be an opportune time to counter-attack. I just don't really have any idea of how much offensive punch Ukrainian forces have right now, though. Here is an article discussing the current situation:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... e498189f06
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- geojanes
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10 Feb 2024, 9:41 am
freeman3 wrote:If Russia can undermine US support for Ukraine then they'll win. But it will be at least until 2025 to do that. I still find it shocking that there are so many Repubs willing to be shills for Russia to gain money and power.
Looks like Freeman's "if" would get good odds today
Clearly Russia has played it's influence cards extremely well. Do you think they've been able to turn the Republicans using legit, if unsavory, means, or do you think it has involved bribery and extortion? I'm guessing probably both, but mostly legit.
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- bbauska
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10 Feb 2024, 3:57 pm
geojanes wrote:freeman3 wrote:If Russia can undermine US support for Ukraine then they'll win. But it will be at least until 2025 to do that. I still find it shocking that there are so many Repubs willing to be shills for Russia to gain money and power.
Looks like Freeman's "if" would get good odds today
Clearly Russia has played it's influence cards extremely well. Do you think they've been able to turn the Republicans using legit, if unsavory, means, or do you think it has involved bribery and extortion? I'm guessing probably both, but mostly legit.
Personally, I would hope that Congress would send funds to both Ukraine AND Israel. They were both attacked by an aggressor that wanted the defender's country eliminated. Hamas and Russia are acting quite similarly.
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- freeman3
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11 Feb 2024, 12:18 am
Well, Russia has been funneling money to western countries (including the US,) for a while without any real pushback. But I think the major way they are getting their way is through Trump's control of MAGA. Russia appears to control Trump and I suspect, though I dont know,,that given their long history of propaganda that they helped create MAGA by advising Trump. on what to do and/or providing assustance. And if you're going to get ahead in the Republican Party you need to adhere to MAGA principles. Russia needs the US to stop supporting Ukraine, Trump is controlled by Russia and so wants US support of Ukraine to stop and MAGA generally follows Trump's lead. I'm not saying that there isn't some Russian money going to some Republican politicians--I'm sure there is--and Russia likes to have dirt it can use to control pols it wants to control so they may control some Repubs that way. But I think their primary way of influence is controlling Trump, who controls MAGA and MAGA controls the Republican Party.
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- geojanes
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12 Feb 2024, 6:33 pm
Read the following from a non-MAGA conservative:
"American taxpayers should not be forced to finance and supply other countries’ ongoing wars—whether it’s Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Gaza, or any other conflict. When the United States pours billions of dollars into a war, particularly in the form of armaments, it makes our country a de facto party to that war. Either declare war and accept appropriate responsibility or else stay out. This is what our Constitution demands."
Question mostly for Brad, assuming you don't agree with this, where is the author wrong?
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- bbauska
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12 Feb 2024, 7:14 pm
Absolutely great question. It is one which I struggle with the dichotomy of a Libertarian view, and one of a Protector view.
The Libertarian view, is let the victim deal with the issue themselves and hope/pray for the best.
The Protector view is one from Edmund Burke:
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."
I picture myself as straddling the issue. Answering your question however, I see that we need to make it perfectly clear what our intentions are, and on which side we are. That would require a declaration of war or notifying all that we are neutral.
Ukraine: As Ukraine is/was not part of NATO, we should remain neutral.
Israel: Declare war. Do NOT give ANY aid until Hamas is utterly and totally destroyed.
I think I do agree politically with the author. I do no humanely agree. Thus, the internal struggle of my viewpoint. Great read! Who was the author? I did not see that on RealClear Politics.
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- geojanes
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12 Feb 2024, 7:56 pm
The author is former Republican congressman Justin Amash, one of Trump's first principled victims. He now identifies as a Libertarian.
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- bbauska
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13 Feb 2024, 6:34 am
Makes sense.
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- bbauska
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13 Feb 2024, 11:41 am
I would hope that other people on Redscape would say what their position is concerning support for countries and declarations of war. Let me know what you would do concerning Ukraine and Israel. Also explain the differences if any?
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- freeman3
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14 Feb 2024, 12:16 pm
First of all, Amash's declaration that the Constitution requires that we either stay out of conflicts totally--not even providing armaments to warring parties--is absurd. You can provide arms without declaring war! The president can use military power without Congressional approval for brief minor things like raids or other temporary military action. The longer and more involved a military action is the more Congressional authorization is required, as envisioned by Congress being given the power to declare war.
The Neutrality Acts prior to WWII are basically what Anash is proposing. But that was passed by Congress, not a requirement of the Constitution.
It certainly does not make sense from a strategic perspective that we only have one option with regard to a war--staying totally out or being 100% involved in a war. Hopefully, you can avoid getting in a war and having American casualties by supporting one side. You want to have a range of options in dealing with military aggression--not a binary choice.
With regard to Ukraine supporting that country is so obviously in our interests it just shows how much Russia has successfully infiltrated the Republican Party that this would even be a debatable issue. Like it not, American military power is a major force for stability in the world, promotes trade, and economic growth. It deters aggression. This is good for the world..but also very good for us.
Biden's policy of supporting Ukraine (our leadership allowed other countries to tag along) is a successful and low-cost way of containing Russian military expansionism. We abandon Ukraine and NATO is weakened, as other countries will doubt our commitment to support countries if theyre attacked by Russia if we are not willing even to support Ukraine with military hardware.The effect of a Russian dominated Europe would likely have negative effects on trade and the world economy. Probably would see energy prices going up. Russian "Finlandnized" countries in Europe may become neutral towards us or worse. Our trade with Europe might go down. Shipping costs might go up due to concerns over military threats to shipping. Successful military aggression probably will encourage military aggression elsewhere (e.g. Taiwan).
By contrast, supporting Israel too strongly is a very dicey proposition. Palestinian civilian casualties are a powerful tool to sway would opinion against US/Israel. Our main strategist interest in the Middle East is access to oil and maintaining a good relationship with Saudi Arabia and other "moderate" oil producing countries is thus important and also containing Iran. Indifference to Palestinian casualties could result in a wider war, pressure moderate Arab countries to take a harder line towards Israel, hurt our influence in the Middle East and cause increased anti-Americanism there.
Israel is our ally but they can't just have a blank check here. Understandably they want to decimate Hamas's military power but there seems to be some time limit, they need to limit civilian casualties, and try to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza. And figure out a better political situation for the Palestinians post-war that will help reduce tensions.
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- freeman3
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14 Feb 2024, 12:19 pm
This book might have influenced Putin's strategic thinking
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundat ... eopolitics
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- freeman3
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14 Feb 2024, 12:20 pm