I don't understand the Ukrainian incursion into Russian soil. If they were able to disrupt Russian supply lines to help with the main front, it would be well worth it. But that doesn't seem to be a possibility. Isn't it just a matter of time before Russia hits these units so that they are forced to retreat or suffer real casualties? I would think Russia has the capability to dislodge them, but perhaps I am mistaken?

When the Wagner thing happened Russia did not seem to have enough troops ready at hand internally to deal with the issue immediately. They seemed pretty overextended. A successful incursion could force Russia to reallocate troops that are currently being used in Ukraine, hopefully creates more opposition to the war, and force Russia to waste troops defending against such forays in the future. Also a good way to help morale . Of course that has to be weighed against the risk of significant casualties. I kind of think it was a good move but I really don't have enough knowledge of facts on the ground (or expertise for that matter) to know if it is or not. But my instinct would be try to put Russia on its heels rather than have them grind away in a war of attrition.

freeman3 wrote:Seems very familiar.Only 77 of your posts came up. Center-right worked for the government? State dept? There was someone like that here, I think. Just not sure that was you.

That's me. I have a bit more time on my hands now.

As for the incursion, I can think of a few reasons:
- UKR might be ready to bargain. Rather than just coming from a place of weakness, they could lay the Kursk salient out as a tradable asset as part of a notional deal. "We cede this territory back to you. You give us x back."
- It's good PR. Euro and U.S. politicos are more likely to open their checkbooks if they think their money is being well spent. Some battlefield successes help with that.
- As I noted before, it forces the question of Ukraine into the election cycle in the US.
- Could just be a power move in a war of attrition. Force the enemy to react to you rather than vice versa. This way, Russia has to spend money, time, morale, fuel, and spare parts to shift forces. If the Ukrainians melt away before Russia can bring the hammer down, that's a win. Russia's biggest weakness is its (relative) lack of funds. Force the Russians to spend money which is harder to come by than conscripts.

The risk here is getting your Ukrainian force cut off and wiped out for a relatively useless piece of real estate. The Ukrainians need to spend their troops wisely. Russia can just thrown bodies at a problem ad infinitum.

I've been listening to Telegraph's podcast on the war, much better than anything in the NYT or WaPost.

Here's the Youtube version:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJnf_DDTfIVCYlsANGtNkzMeM9Fdmqzxr

geojanes wrote:I've been listening to Telegraph's podcast on the war, much better than anything in the NYT or WaPost.

Here's the Youtube version:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJnf_DDTfIVCYlsANGtNkzMeM9Fdmqzxr

Appreciate this. My audiobook just ran out and I need something to listen to on the commute today.

freeman3 wrote:Seems very familiar.Only 77 of your posts came up. Center-right worked for the government? State dept? There was someone like that here, I think. Just not sure that was you.

Hey, I remember you, Patrick! As for the missing posts, we lost everything prior to ~15 years ago. Chad re-instated the post counts & titles for many of the older members at that time, thus high post counts but few posts remain. That's probably good - I think I might be a little embarrassed to read some of the crap I wrote 20 years ago.

SLOTerp wrote: Hey, I remember you, Patrick! As for the missing posts, we lost everything prior to ~15 years ago. Chad re-instated the post counts & titles for many of the older members at that time, thus high post counts but few posts remain. That's probably good - I think I might be a little embarrassed to read some of the crap I wrote 20 years ago.

Hey! Good to see you. Yeah...I was a bit more confrontational back in the day. I've mellowed.

The back and forth in Ukraine continues in a desultory fashion. I get the impression they are waiting for November 5.

Do you still use that old Yahoo email account, Patrick? I'd like to pick your brain on something OT.

You can email me directly: sloterp <at> verizon <dot> net

Thanks!
Mike