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Statesman
 
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Post 27 Oct 2020, 2:38 pm

freeman3
If the Democrats win the Senate there are likely to be significant changes in our system of government, Ricky


If they actually take advantage of the situation and do what you suggest. There will be enough time for changes to start to affect peoples lives that the changes could be permanent.
The barrier that I alluded to is the legal barriers... Every law in the US seems to be litigated for 5 years before it actually starts to take affect. Rich stakeholders, usually corporations can gum up the works in the courts and make change difficult. Especially with a judiciary that was selected, in large part the last 4 years, by the federalist society.

I can't figure out how to paste my damn map. However I expect that Geo is right except he's missing North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. And Trump will get one of the Maine districts, while Biden gets 1 in Nebraska.
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Post 02 Nov 2020, 10:32 am

Altering my map. Wisconsin and NC go Biden. The Fla gov delivers Florida to Trump:

Image

The Trump supporters out in their cars and flags may be hurting the few swing votes out there. They look nuts. You may think the same about ANTIFA, but they're not waiving Biden flags. Looks more and more like a cult.

Trump will continue to do everything possible to create chaos after he loses, and the next couple of months will be crazy.

I continue to worry about the long-term health of the nation. If he loses, what happens to the Trump clan? Do we think that they're just going to quietly move out of the spotlight come Jan 2021? They will do everything they can to sow unrest probably for the rest of their lives. My concern goes way beyond politics and policies, and into stability.
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Post 02 Nov 2020, 10:59 am

The Trump base (a significant portion thereof, anyway) has been looking for a fascist leader their entire lives who would validate their views. Now that they have found "meaning" in their lives they're not going to want to give that up....

So, yeah, I'm not sure how we put this genie back in the bottle...we're for in a very rocky time for the forseeable future.
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Post 02 Nov 2020, 11:55 am

freeman3
I continue to worry about the long-term health of the nation. If he loses, what happens to the Trump clan? Do we think that they're just going to quietly move out of the spotlight come Jan 2021? They will do everything they can to sow unrest probably for the rest of their lives. My concern goes way beyond politics and policies, and into stability.


Trump will attempt to be a media Moghul, perhaps being given a share of the One America News Network by Herring for his families participation... He has enough of a cult following that he can continue to scam. But it won't grow beyond what it is now. And over time will erode.

His legal problems will keep him busy and poor. He can't pardon himself from the New York suits, nor from the IRS which wants a lot of money back from him.
And the Germans (Russians) will be calling in their loans - which he can't really deal with..
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Post 02 Nov 2020, 4:26 pm

Hope so. But I doubt it. The Trumpies have been radicalized. That aint going away, regardless if Trump fades from the political scene. You hope that Biden can reduce wealth stratification and ease some of the economic pressures on the white working class that is in part driving Trumpism. We have serious, difficult problems to deal with--climate change and enacting policies to deal with a changing world that is sidelining too many--and we're fighting over nonsense (e.g abortion, immigration, treating gay, transgender people equally.) None of those issues are really going to affect the lives of people on the Right but ignoring Climate Change and sending most of the country's wealth to a small percentage of people and attacking democratic institutions and causing civil disorder. will make those concerns peanuts.

It's the 21st Century. I cannot think how any reasonable person could think that the government could decide a difficult moral question like abortion and tell women they have no choice in the manner. Could the government tell someone they cant use contraception? Could the government tell people they can only have one child? Could the government forcibly sterilize someone because they deem them not intelligent enough? Or not allow vasectomies or hysterectomies? If those things are protected Constitutionally, then so is some reasonable right to abortion.

The Bill of Rights was put in because there was a concern that even though the government was supposed to be limited there was a concern thst government might overreach with the "limited" powers that it was given and we better spell out certain things it cant do. But when it spelled out certain things the government could not do it also is reasonably construed as banning other things the government could not do that were even more intrusive. The government cannot board soldiers at your home...but it can decide whether you whether or not you can reproduce? Again, the government is supposed to be limited which is why Constitution should be interpreted as a set of principles interpreted broadly, not as like a statute which is limited to the action prohibited. The right of privacy is a more general concept, of which the right to be free of unreasonable searches and seizure and boarding of soldiers are particular examples. And given that infringement on reproductive rights is even more intrusive than searches and seizures or boarding of soldiers, then it's reasonable to conclude that reproductive rights are protected as well. The Right of Privacy is not made up out of whole cloth, but a reasonable interpretation based on the theory of limited government.

As for treating LBGTQ people equally...isnt it clear by now that this a fundamental part of the human condition at this point? "All men are created equal" is a powerful idea that has kept coming back again and again and will continue to do because it is true. Full stop.

I just posted a stat that showed there are almost 3 million people from India in the US and their median household income is $126,000. Think of all the talent we have brought in to this country because of immigration. The same could be said of Koreans and of course many, many other immigrants. And yet this fixation over our border with Mexico...

And yet those issues (and guns) allowed a narcissistic, unpatriotic, undemocratic nut to become president...and he and a significant number of his followers pose a threat to our democracy

Reasonable people...need to get reasonable. And not throw away what our ancestors built here.
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Post 03 Nov 2020, 10:36 am

freeman3
And yet those issues (and guns) allowed a narcissistic, unpatriotic, undemocratic nut to become president...and he and a significant number of his followers pose a threat to our democracy


The issues wouldn't really cause a problem if your nation were actually more democratic.
The US constitution and your system of governance allows minority rule...
On almost every issue you named, currently majorities of Americans feel differently then your current laws.
The Economy

82 percent of Americans think wealthy people have too much power and influence in Washington.
69 percent think large businesses have too much power and influence in Washington.
59 percent—and 72 percent of likely voters—think Wall Street has too much power and influence in Washington.
78 percent of likely voters support stronger rules and enforcement on the financial industry.
65 percent of Americans think our economic system “unfairly favors powerful interests.”
59 percent of Americans—and 43 percent of Republicans—think corporations make “too much profit.”
Inequality

82 percent of Americans think economic inequality is a “very big” (48 percent) or “moderately big” (34 percent) problem. Even 69 percent of Republicans share this view.
66 percent of Americans think money and wealth should be distributed more evenly.
72 percent of Americans say it is “extremely” or “very” important, and 23 percent say it is “somewhat important,” to reduce poverty.
59 percent of registered voters—and 51 percent of Republicans—favor raising the maximum amount that low-wage workers can make and still be eligible for the Earned Income Tax Credit, from $14,820 to $18,000.
Money in Politics

96 percent of Americans—including 96 percent of Republicans—believe money in politics is to blame for the dysfunction of the U.S. political system.
84 percent of Americans—including 80 percent of Republicans—believe money has too much influence in politics.
78 percent of Americans say we need sweeping new laws to reduce the influence of money in politics.
73 percent of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.
Taxes

80 percent of Americans think some corporations don’t pay their fair share of taxes.
78 percent think some wealthy people don’t pay their fair share of taxes.
76 percent believe the wealthiest Americans should pay higher taxes.
60 percent of registered voters believe corporations pay too little in taxes.
87 percent of Americans say it is critical to preserve Social Security, even if it means increasing Social Security taxes paid by wealthy Americans.
67 percent of Americans support lifting the cap to require higher-income workers to pay Social Security taxes on all of their wages.
Minimum Wage
66 percent of Americans favor raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour.
59 percent favor raising the federal minimum wage to $12 an hour.
48 percent support raising the national minimum wage to $15 an hour. (A survey of registered voters found that 54 percent favored a $15 minimum wage.)
63 percent of registered voters think the minimum wage should be adjusted each year by the rate of inflation.
Workers' Rights
61 percent of Americans—including 42 percent of Republicans—approve of labor unions.
74 percent of registered voters—including 71 percent of Republicans—support requiring employers to offer paid parental and medical leave.
78 percent of likely voters favor establishing a national fund that offers all workers 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave.
Health Care
60 percent of Americans believe “it is the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage.”
60 percent of registered voters favor “expanding Medicare to provide health insurance to every American.”
58 percent of the public favors replacing Obamacare with “a federally funded healthcare program providing insurance for all Americans.”
64 percent of registered voters favor their state accepting the Obamacare plan for expanding Medicaid in their state.
https://prospect.org/power/americans-liberal-even-know/

The US is virtually the only democracy that doesn't have an independent electoral commission that conducts elections. Instead, politicians holding political office regulate how your elections are conducted. And they are conducted differently in every state...
The Electoral college and particularly the Senate are undemocratic - ensuring that a minority can have an outsize influence on governance. Until and unless there is a significant change to these institutions, trust in public institutions will continue to erode. erode.
When government does not reflect the will of the people - unrest occurs. What you seem to think is unrest from the right, I believe is actually unrest from the centre and left - people who have seen their desires thwarted by the system.
That Trump and the far right have co-opted that position is ironic, but also a standard tactic of entrenched minorities.
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Post 03 Nov 2020, 11:21 am

I am not sure those polls mean much. Why? Because people have ranked priorities and many Repulicans rank those issues (if they agree) far below the issues they really care about. They dont want a Democrat in there who could do some of those things. So what does it mean they say yes to those questions you listed if it doesnt motivate their vote?

The filibuster is one thing that may be gotten rid of to limit the power of the minority to stop legislation.
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Post 04 Nov 2020, 1:08 am

Initial responses?

I feel pretty good about Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Georgia and NC are both Trump states.

The Senate is solid Republican.

I feel pretty good with my predictions...
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Post 04 Nov 2020, 7:02 am

bbauska wrote:Initial responses?

I feel pretty good about Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Georgia and NC are both Trump states.

The Senate is solid Republican.

I feel pretty good with my predictions...


Certainly so far, BBauska is the closest.

The senate seems like it will stay Republican and the Presidency can still go either way. I have a sinking feeling that the final vote will be 5-4 for Trump around some technical Pennsylvania ballot issue that will show that even Supreme Court Justices view the world subjectively.

Whatever happens, basically this is a 50/50 country. Everyone knows what they are getting with Trump and more or less 1/2 of the people prefer that to a relatively moderate Democrat. Each side has to try to understand the other, but that is very hard judging from the people I know who are on both sides of the political divide.
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Post 04 Nov 2020, 8:33 am

All data is from Real Clear Politics

President
Georgia - 100,000 vote difference, 3.5% remaining to be counted (12,000 votes remaining in a county Biden leads 4:1) Trump leads
North Carolina - 75,000 vote difference (100% Counted) Trump leads
Michigan - 9,000 vote difference (91% Counted) Trending Biden
Pennsylvania - 560,000 vote difference (79% Counted) Trending Trump
Wisconsin - 20,000 vote difference (100% Counted) Biden Leads (2,500 votes remaining)
Arizona - 94,000 vote difference (84% Counted) Biden leads (votes remaining look to be evenly split)
Nevada - 7,500 vote difference (75% counted) Biden leads, but could go either way (remaining votes lean Trump)

Senate (No change)
Maine - Collins
NC - Tillis
Georgia - Perdue
Michigan - James (Still in question, but trending James)
Arizona - Kelly

House (+7 Republican?)

Not the Blue Tsunami or overwhelming Democrat victory. Could it be a 269/269 Tie? I, as a political "Junkie", would LOVE IT!
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Post 04 Nov 2020, 10:07 am

bbauska wrote:Not the Blue Tsunami or overwhelming Democrat victory. Could it be a 269/269 Tie? I, as a political "Junkie", would LOVE IT!

I did a projection that ended up Biden 269-267 Trump before you get the single toss-up EC spots in Maine & Nebraska:

Biden:
Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, MIchigan,

Trump
PA, NC, Georgia

269-269 would probably mean Trump wins, as the House delegations are slightly ahead for Trump and it looks like the results won't alter than balance much.

I think Georgia will be more decisive than PA - Biden can win without PA if he takes Georgia, Trump has to win both and pick up elsewhere.
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Post 04 Nov 2020, 12:47 pm

bbauska
I feel pretty good about Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Georgia and NC are both Trump states.


At 1:08 AM?

Its 2:44PM Nov 4 and I see Wisconsin has been called for Biden.
He's ahead in Michigan and Nevada. Pennsylvania is far from over and will be counting till Friday.
And Georgia and NC are still in play.
Count all the votes first.
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Post 04 Nov 2020, 2:13 pm

rickyp wrote:bbauska
I feel pretty good about Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Georgia and NC are both Trump states.


At 1:08 AM?

Its 2:44PM Nov 4 and I see Wisconsin has been called for Biden.
He's ahead in Michigan and Nevada. Pennsylvania is far from over and will be counting till Friday.
And Georgia and NC are still in play.
Count all the votes first.


Felt pretty good at my prediction. Not the incoming results. Compare that with the prediction you made...
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Post 04 Nov 2020, 3:39 pm

bbauska
Felt pretty good at my prediction. Not the incoming results. Compare that with the prediction you made..

Well, Joe still has a shot in Nevada Arizona Penn NC and Georgia... That would get him to 320. And I will have only missed Florida.
We'll see. Count the ballots.
The Senate run off in Georgia in January could be the difference between a 50/50 Senate and republican majority... That should be interesting. Good time to own tv stations in Georgia.
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Post 05 Nov 2020, 4:31 am

It is disappointing how even counting of votes is a bizarre affair with partisan culture-war positioning.

Seems some States were blocked from starting to count absentee/early ballots, or even to do the checking processes until the polls closed, meaning that there are indeed large bundles of uncounted votes to wade through.