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Post 26 Oct 2020, 8:30 am

Electoral Votes biden 351 trump 187

Percentage of vote Biden 53 Trump 44 other 3

Senate (final make up) Dem 52 Rep 48

House Dem 240 Rep and Lib 195
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 9:47 am

Biden wins FLA, AZ MI and Penna. Loses North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio. Old people swing the vote for Biden, but white working class still come out for Trump.

Image

But my real prediction is that Trump's going to lose and he's not going quietly.
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 10:29 am

Posted W/O comment

SENATE
52R/48D

POTUS
275 - Trump
262 - Biden

SCOTUS
5 Conservative
3 Liberal
1 Moderate

HOUSE
233 D
202 R
Screenshot_2020-10-26 See who I think wins the 2020 Senate Races.jpg
Screenshot_2020-10-26 See who I think wins the 2020 President Races.jpg
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 11:56 am

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Post 26 Oct 2020, 12:03 pm

Brad might be right, except for Nevada. Nevada went for Clinton, it is going Biden, and if everything else is as he predicts. then we have a TIE!

What do you think Trump's going to do then? It won't be pretty. Think the markets are starting to realize how dangerous this guy is going to be if/when he loses.
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 4:23 pm

Real clear averages polls from like the past 7- 10 days:
Pennsylvania. Biden+4.9%
Florida. Biden+2.1
Wisconsin. Biden+4.6
North Carolina. Biden +2.3
Michigan. Biden 7.8
Ohio. Trump 0.8.
Minnesota. Biden 6.3
Iowa. Biden 0.8
Arizona. Biden 3.2
Nevada. Biden 5.2
Texas. Trump 4.0
Georgia. Biden 1.2
Virginia. Biden 11.4 (only 3 polls over.
2 months, though)
New Hampshire. Biden 11.0
Maine. Biden 11.0
Colorado. Biden 9.5 (only 2 polls)
New Mexico. Biden 14.5 (only 2 polls)

Assuming roughly 3% margin of error Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, are pretty much up for grabs. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, nevada, Arizona, are likely Biden's. Texas is likely Trump. Michigan and Minnesota are highly likely Biden. New Hampshire, Maine, Colorado, New Mexico are in the bag for Biden.

Real Clear politics has Biden at 232. If he takes just 38 out of 181 toss-ups he wins.

From my chart starting with 232 if he wins Penn, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin (states he he has from 3.2 to 4.9% advantage) he'll have 279. Actually he just needs to win Penn, Wisconsin and Arizona. Then of course there a bunch of toss-up states he can win. So, at the moment, it looks pretty good.

I agree with George. Trump is going to lose. And hopefully that will dissuade him from inciting civil disorder. I actually think he is going to get trounced. There is so much anger against him. The turn-out among Democrats is going to be immense. Old people in Arizona and Florida are going to desert him because of COVID. Biden's floor is what I described...but he could get close to 400 electoral votes. A historic trouncing. And after that...a jail cell for the Clown-in-Chief.
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 4:29 pm

And Democrats take the Senate. This is not a Blue Wave...it's a Blue Tsunami. The Republican Party pays a huge price for selling its soul and supporting Trump...and we'll be in an existential crisis after the election.
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 8:27 pm

Another way to look at my prediction is Clinton states plus AZ, FLA, Penna and Michigan, and a Maine Congressional district.
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 8:47 pm

Clinton states are a for sure arent they? Michigan is not competitive. Florida is a toss-up but old people there (and theyre a lot!) have the greatest possible interest in voting against Trump--their life! Arizona is moving demographically towards Democrats. Trump could win Pennsylvania but it's leaning towards Biden. But so much of the toss-ups are in Trump states that it's just likely youll get a few surprises there. Usually, people take the wrong lessons from history because conditions always change. You just cant get lucky in so many close states when you have to win almost all of them to win.
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 9:15 pm

http://www.redscape.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3252&start=60

Nice flashback...

Especially the part where Hillary said she would close the coal mines.
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Post 26 Oct 2020, 11:34 pm

Thanks, Brad. Enjoyed the trip down memory lane...dang, I was smarter back then too!
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Post 27 Oct 2020, 5:39 am

Democrats win big in 2020.

They do silly stuff and Republican win House and Senate seats in 2022.

Two Indian-Americans run against each other in 2024.
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Post 27 Oct 2020, 9:13 am

rayjay
They do silly stuff


Like what?

rayjay
Two Indian-Americans run against each other in 2024.


You mean two women as well? Plausible no matter what goes down for the first three years of Biden.
I suspect that there will be constant reminders of Trump for years as his legal problems become huge.
New York AG is just waiting for January 20.
How much this damages the Republicans who stood with him, will be a factor in how fast the republican party can rebuild.
A unified government (which is probably the key) can also over come the locked processes and inertia in divided governance. And if Biden moves quickly and imaginatively might change the entire political agenda. However the structural problems accorded by the form of governance and legal system will be a barrier.
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Post 27 Oct 2020, 10:16 am

If the Democrats win the Senate there are likely to be significant changes in our system of government, Ricky. The filibuster is on the table. The Republicans need to agree to rectify the court packing that McConnell engaged in...or more judges need to be appointed. McConnell abused the Senate's Advice and Consent power and that damage has to be undone.

With no filbuster...and control of the Senate...we can finally get a progressive package passed. A Medicare option and significantly imcreased minimum wage for starters. I would like to see a greatly expanded Section 8 program to help deal with our homeless problem. And legislation to help lower to middle-class workers who have been screwed over the past 40 years. Lyndon Johnson said "power reveals". I think that working-class Biden from Scranton, PA is going to come out...

But this is getting ahead of ourselves. First we have to beat the Clown!
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Post 27 Oct 2020, 11:20 am

Indian-Americans are the new Jews: smart, well-educated with high incomes ($127,000 median household income). Close to 3 million now. I expect that they will soon be (if not already) well-represented in positions of importance/power in our society. A reminder that immigration is (mostly) a good thing...