There is a group Engagious that has been doing focus group with swing voters-- alternated voting Republican and Democrat in 2012 and 2016--in battleground states for the past year. The most recent one with Michigan voters, the voters had very negative reactions to Biden--particularly with regard to mental abilities and ability to lead--and only two were planning to vote for Biden and that wasnt because they liked him but because of how poorly Trump had handled the pandemic.
The Pennsylvania focus group was on June 16, 2020 and was in favor of Biden but the Michigan group a month later was very anti-Biden. I believe the Pennsylvania focus group was the only one where voters rejected Trump. They do these focus groups about once a month.
My concern is that the support for Biden is soft, that the polling right now is a referendum on Trump, that voters overall stil favor Trump on the economy and that in a vacuum voters would rather not have Trump but when people vote they will have to make a choice. And at that point, if they dont like Biden much, they will go with the guy they think either helps their pocketbooks or aligns more with the values or policies they support.
So I would not trust that polling...and we need to get our voters to the polls! The VP choice is going to be very important. A misstep there could be disasterous. In my mind, there are only two possible choices: Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren. And I do not even like Kamala Harris that much--she rubs me the wrong way but whatever that's just superficial--but those two are the only two with the necessary stature and experience so that voters will have confidence that they could take over as president, if necessary. And Harris would likely have a positive effect on black turn-out. Warren might help a bit but that's harder to say. But dont choose someone no knows. Some are pushing a black congresswoman from California that no one has ever heard of and who looks schoolmarmish. Do not make the mistake that Hillary made and play it too safe!
The Pennsylvania focus group was on June 16, 2020 and was in favor of Biden but the Michigan group a month later was very anti-Biden. I believe the Pennsylvania focus group was the only one where voters rejected Trump. They do these focus groups about once a month.
My concern is that the support for Biden is soft, that the polling right now is a referendum on Trump, that voters overall stil favor Trump on the economy and that in a vacuum voters would rather not have Trump but when people vote they will have to make a choice. And at that point, if they dont like Biden much, they will go with the guy they think either helps their pocketbooks or aligns more with the values or policies they support.
So I would not trust that polling...and we need to get our voters to the polls! The VP choice is going to be very important. A misstep there could be disasterous. In my mind, there are only two possible choices: Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren. And I do not even like Kamala Harris that much--she rubs me the wrong way but whatever that's just superficial--but those two are the only two with the necessary stature and experience so that voters will have confidence that they could take over as president, if necessary. And Harris would likely have a positive effect on black turn-out. Warren might help a bit but that's harder to say. But dont choose someone no knows. Some are pushing a black congresswoman from California that no one has ever heard of and who looks schoolmarmish. Do not make the mistake that Hillary made and play it too safe!