Youre doing your job as apologist for China well, Ricky. First with regard to the cover-up Axis--hardly a conservative news organization--compiled a timeline of the cover-up:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... 5faab.html

One study estimated that if China acted three weeks earlier a 95% reduction of cases could have been achieved. Of course if the researchers had gotten sick in November, then the cover-up was far, far worse.

And there was a heavy cost for whistleblowers:

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/02 ... l-hnk-dst/

As for "evidence" that it did not come from the lab, there is no evidence. Opinions from researchers as to what they think are the likely causes do not constitute evidence. The theory you presented from one researcher with regard to the wet market was such a reach even he didnt have confidence in it.

From the BBC:

"Is there another theory?

Yes, and it's called the "natural origin" theory.

This argues the virus spread naturally from animals, without the involvement of any scientists or laboratories.

Supporters of the natural origin hypothesis say Covid-19 emerged in bats and then jumped to humans, most likely through another animal, or "intermediary host".

That idea was backed by the WHO report, which said it was "likely to very likely" that Covid had made it to humans through an intermediate host.

This hypothesis was widely accepted at the start of the pandemic, but as time has worn on, scientists have not found a virus in either bats or another animal that matches the genetic make-up of Covid-19, casting doubt over the theory."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co ... 268111.amp

Lab accidents happen:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatod ... 4765985001



You have these massive coincidences: (1) a biolab in Wuhan that had the bats that harbor the virus and was doing gain in function research, (2) no one has presented ANY evidence that horseshoe bats live around Wuhan, and (3) for some reason on December 2 the Chinese CDC moved its lab close to the market. For this last coincidence:

"The Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, key to virus prevention and detection, moved its laboratory in Wuhan on December 2, 2019. The WHO report, written in conjunction with Chinese officials, notes this fact and says it could have been disruptive to a laboratory's operations. It also notes the lab moved to a location near the Huanan Seafood Market, the exotic animal trade center thought to have played a major role in the virus' early spread. The move happened just six days before the first patient experienced Covid-19 symptoms, according to China's account. (He is, the WHO report said, an accountant working for a family company, with no known history of attending crowded events, animal "wet market" contact, or exotic trips to the wilderness. These facts suggest he may have got it in the city, perhaps from another person)."

Funny, how this last coincidence is hardly reported at all...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/25/politics ... index.html


And now you have another massive coincidence: three researchers got sick in November. You say there is no confirmation? Well, why doesnt China open up lab records and data with regard to their research? What viruses were they working on? Provide access to medical records of the researchers? Allow researchers to be interviewed. Allow employees at local hospitals to be interviewed. This absolutely can be cleared up if it wasnt a lab leak. Alternative theories have gone nowhere. There is enough circumstantial evidence pointing to the lab that China needs to open its records. We need the cause to help us prevent another lab leak and end gain in function research.

As for China's financial responsibility it's not like you can just take them to court, given the concept of soverign immunity They would have to agree to the jurisdiction of an international court. The US has only carved out exceptions for US courts having jurisdiction with regard to claims against foreign countries if they were involved in terrorism. But countries owing China money is a different matter. And of course sanctions are another option. Eventually Libya paid Lockerbie claims to get out from under sanctions.

But China is a very powerful country and wont be easily pressured. I think canceling the debt owed to them by African countries would go over quite well as a mea culpa, though...

The timeline agrees with what I already linked you to from the BBC. And yes, it suggests that there could have been, should have been a 2 to 3 week sooner announcement of a potential pandemic.

freeman3

One study estimated that if China acted three weeks earlier a 95% reduction of cases could have been achieved

Bull shit.
That would have required Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson and others to react according to the pandemic plan quickly. My whole point is that they didn't react till March
Why would they or others have responded properly in December when they didn't in march or April? They wouldn't have acted till illness started in their jurisdictions or, in some cases - not even then...

Freeman 3

As for "evidence" that it did not come from the lab, there is no evidence.

Not so. Analysis of the DNA of the virus suggested zoonotic transmission.
" the idea I think is quite farfetched that the Chinese deliberately engineered something so that they could kill themselves as well as other people. I think that's a bit far out, John."

The problem with the focus on this is that it doesn't focus on how governments responded....
You can't tell me that if the Chinese had made an announcement in December as opposed to January 3rd when they did ... that anything different would have happened...
Governments in some jurisdiction simply refused to act according to the protocols developed after SARS... They would have done the same thing in December.

And the problem with focusing on the "origins issue" is that it takes the focus off the really problem. Lack of preparation and the inability to act - even though we knew what had to be done.

There will be more pandemics. The main focus should be on making government public health responses competent.
Its fine to keep chasing the unlikely scenario that somehow a virus "leaked". But if it allows it to let incompetent governments off the hook for their response is stupid. Pursuing this like its a conspiracy is a kind of "lost cause" revisionism.

As for China's financial responsibility

You'd have to prove that any delay caused governments to respond incompetently.
And that's not the case. Governments responded incompetently because they were incompetent.

Well, I just stated what Axios stated without thinking it through. Basically, the study estimated if interventions had started three weeks earlier by the end of Frbruary, 2020 the number of cases would have been reduced by 95%. So you can safely assume that the outbreaks that countries across would have to deal with would have been less as well. And that delay likely would meant not quite as great of an outbreak, particularly as the spread of the virus slows down as summer approaches. But who knows what the ultimate effect would have been.

https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020 ... china.page

No one is saying they did it deliberately. We're saying that there could have been a lab leak that they covered up. And we need to know. Not because we have a bias, against China, but because we need to understand how it happened and what steps need to be taken to prevent it again.

As far as how looking at the virus and saying how could human have bioengineered it? I remember some experts saying that way back when. I guess they didnt see this study...

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

This gain of function of research was really dumb and the fault for that is certainly widespread.

Taiwan had the same information as every other country. This is what they did (The gold standard for countries outside of China) .

In 2004, the year after the SARS outbreak, the Taiwan government established the National Health Command Center (NHCC). The NHCC is part of a disaster management center that focuses on large-outbreak response and acts as the operational command point for direct communications among central, regional, and local authorities. The NHCC unified a central command system that includes the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC), the Biological Pathogen Disaster Command Center, the Counter-Bioterrorism Command Center, and the Central Medical Emergency Operations Center.5

On December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was notified of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China, Taiwanese officials began to board planes and assess passengers on direct flights from Wuhan for fever and pneumonia symptoms before passengers could deplane. As early as January 5, 2020, notification was expanded to include any individual who had traveled to Wuhan in the past 14 days and had a fever or symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection at the point of entry; suspected cases were screened for 26 viruses including SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Passengers displaying symptoms of fever and coughing were quarantined at home and assessed whether medical attention at a hospital was necessary. On January 20, while sporadic cases were reported from China, the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) officially activated the CECC for severe special infectious pneumonia under NHCC, with the minister of health and welfare as the designated commander. The CECC coordinated efforts by various ministries, including the ministries of transportation, economics, labor, and education and the Environmental Protection Administration, among others, in a comprehensive effort to counteract the emerging public health crisis.

From January 20-February 24, the CECC has rapidly produced and implemented a list of at least 124 action items (eTable in the Supplement) including border control from the air and sea, case identification (using new data and technology), quarantine of suspicious cases, proactive case finding, resource allocation (assessing and managing capacity), reassurance and education of the public while fighting misinformation, negotiation with other countries and regions, formulation of policies toward schools and childcare, and relief to businesses

.

With the same information available to them the US government (And I could have put most other governments in here) only began to screen air travellers from China on January 20. And there was no stay at home order anywhere in the US till March 19. (Barn door wide open for far too long).

Thinking that an additional two weeks notice would have made a significant difference for most governments is pretty optimistic. Almost every bloody country failed to implement the SARS protocols, when to competent governments like Taiwan ... it was the obvious course of action.
Now those same countries are hoping that they can cover their incompetence by blaming China for the whole thing.

freeman

I remember some experts saying that way back when. I guess they didn't see this study..

.
Did you read this from the page you linked?

30 March 2020 Editors’ note, March 2020: We are aware that this article is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus.

freeman3

No one is saying they did it deliberately

You aren't. But lots of right wingers are saying it ... and the US is a nation peopled by a significant number of conspiracy adherents....

And that's the danger in pursuing answers outside of the narrow confines of the scientific community. Unfortunately it suits the west to pursue this rhetorically and whip up suspicion and mistrust - because China.

RickyP, You are tilting a windmill that nobody is arguing for. Even I agree that people staying in the house and not going anywhere is going to preclude transmission of any disease.

You are not answering your fellow progressive's points however. Perhaps you do not have good answers. I don't know. That being said, I would love to know what your explanation of why the Chinese government is being so secretive?

Do you think they (The Chinese Communist Government) are hiding anything?

Ricky:

Taiwan had the same information as every other country. This is what they did (The gold standard for countries outside of China)

Yes, the same Taiwan that China does not allow into the WHO.

I think one can easily believe that (1) the virus leaked from a lab, and (2) western governments poorly responded and want to deflect blame. These are not mutually exclusive options.

China will not release information on the hospital visits of its 3 sick lab workers.

freeman3

I would love to know what your explanation of why the Chinese government is being so secretive?

Domestic reason. They don't want to appear like they are being "bullied" by Westerners.
Foreign policy reason. They don't want to give up what they consider their sovereignty.

Saving Face... is another way of putting it.

I agree with you that they should fully cooperate.
But I don't agree that their reluctance to open up to scrutiny is in any way different then their posture on almost every other issue.
Expecting China to act differently then it normally acts when it comes to one particular thing, is naïve. They are simply repeating their thin skinned, attitude towards scrutiny of everything about their society.

Eventually they need to understand (at the political level, I'm pretty sure their scientists understand) that cooperation is beneficial to them. That may take a while and the consequences for fomenting mistrust must become apparent.
This works to the benefit of the West (particularly the US) right now as the geo-political gains made over the last 5 years by Belt and Road are lost.
It also works to the benefit of western politicians happy to take the heat off scrutiny of their incompetent response to Covid. These politicians will pursue the issue whether there is something there or not - because it benefits them politically.

You make the mistake of assuming that their behavior in "covering up" the origins of Covid 19 could

only be

because somehow there was a Lab leak. With or without a lab leak, they would resist scrutiny.
That they volunteered as much as they did about the progress of the pandemic, that we know as much as we do about the 2 weeks of political foot dragging, and that the Chinese demonstrated remarkable competence in combatting Covid in their own country, is actually fairly remarkable. Especially IF they were trying to cover up the origins.

The simplest answer is almost always the most likely. And the simplest is zoonotic transmission through another species through their wet markets..
Because the scientific examination of the origins have become politicized (originally by Trump, the Liar) it will take much longer to eliminate "lab leak" as a scenario. Why? The Chinese have their backs up, as the normally do. western politicians want the issue to fester. Many of them have no real thought that the lab leak is plausible, but it sure works to their benefit that the issue festers.

"Did you read this from the page you linked? 

30 March 2020 Editors’ note, March 2020: We are aware that this article is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus."

The problem is that this is circular reasoning. China was successful early on in getting the lab leak theory described-- partially at least through influence/pressure on the WHO and scientists friendly to them-- described as a "conspiracy theory" even though there were extremely well-qualified scientists who said it couldnt be ruled out. Nature just went along with the flow on that. Now of course as time has gone on many scientists have changed their mind. So that blurb from Nature doesnt mean anything. Whats important is that the study debunks the idea that this virus could have only come from Nature. Thats the problem with blindly listening to expert opinion. Scientific research is one thing; but expert speculation is quite another.

By the way, China is not just being secretive. They also have a propaganda campaign going on to say that the virus came from the US...

As RJ said there could be a lab leak and western governments trying to deflect blame by blaming China for their own shortcomings in handling the virus. But trying to shield China from blame by saying that western governments are just trying to blame China doesnt work when there is evidence of a lab leak. That's just a red herring.

If China wont release the medical records of the three researchers...thats pretty significant evidence of a lab leak. If China proves that none of the researchers got sick with Covid, then this whole thing blows over. So why not do that?

Per today's WSJ:

A large batch of emails exchanged with Anthony Fauci, ... was made available this week ... under the Freedom of Information Act. For the most part the emails ... have been redacted of any meaningful information. But one significant email escaped the censor’s black marker.

On Jan. 31, 2020, shortly after the SARS-CoV-2 genome had been decoded, Kristian Andersen, the five virologists’ leader, emailed Dr. Fauci that there were “unusual features” in the virus. These took up only a small percentage of the genome, so that “one has to look really closely at all the sequences to see that some of the features (potentially) look engineered.”

Mr. Andersen went on to note that he and his team “all find the genome inconsistent with expectations from evolutionary theory.”

"It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus. As noted above, the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 is optimized for binding to human ACE2 with an efficient solution different from those previously predicted7,11. Furthermore, if genetic manipulation had been performed, one of the several reverse-genetic systems available for betacoronaviruses would probably have been used19. However, the genetic data irrefutably show that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone20. Instead, we propose two scenarios that can plausibly explain the origin of SARS-CoV-2: (i) natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer; and (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer. We also discuss whether selection during passage could have given rise to SARS-CoV-2

."

Published: 17 March 2020 by Kristian Andersen

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Now, why would the WSJ publish the emails thinking they were revelatory if they had bothered to check he actual published results?
Either because they are purposefully trying to obscure the truth. Or they are just terrible journalists.

freeman3

Thats the problem with blindly listening to expert opinion.

SInce no genuine evidence has been produced to support the lab leak theory only speculation and conjecture, I'll stick with the experts conclusions about evidence that has been confirmed. .

It is true that China is stonewalling. That's what an authoritarian government does. They are less concerned by what the world thinks of them, then that their citizens think that the central government would cave to foreigners. (Because any sign of weakness gives domestic opponents hope...)
This isn't making an excuse for them. Its just recognizing that they behave differently. And always have.

rayjay

Yes, the same Taiwan that China does not allow into the WHO

For the same reason that the US wouldn't let California into WHO as a separate entity. Because they claim Taiwan is a state of China.
And by the way the Taiwanese government also claims to be the legitimate government of all of China.

Not picking sides here. Think the situation is absurd. But, for the record, neither entity is being realistic.

rickyp wrote:

"It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of a related SARS-CoV-like coronavirus. As noted above, the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 is optimized for binding to human ACE2 with an efficient solution different from those previously predicted7,11. Furthermore, if genetic manipulation had been performed, one of the several reverse-genetic systems available for betacoronaviruses would probably have been used19. However, the genetic data irrefutably show that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone20. Instead, we propose two scenarios that can plausibly explain the origin of SARS-CoV-2: (i) natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer; and (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer. We also discuss whether selection during passage could have given rise to SARS-CoV-2

."

Published: 17 March 2020 by Kristian Andersen

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Now, why would the WSJ publish the emails thinking they were revelatory if they had bothered to check he actual published results?
Either because they are purposefully trying to obscure the truth. Or they are just terrible journalists.

Ricky, that's precisely the point. What they publicly published is different than what their gut was telling them. It seems that they were victims of group think, at best. Your refusal to even acknowledge the argument is the issue here.

Ricky:

Not picking sides here.

Shame on you for not picking the side of a democratic government vis-à-vis a totalitarian one who wants to consume them. Do you really want Taiwan to suffer the fate of Hong Kong?

Wow. A researcher says he thinks the virus is bioengineered then says the opposite in published results. That's either group think...or something worse. Power distorts truth. And I think China has been using its power to deflect blame with regard to the Covid virus.

China has leverage over scientists in the age-old way: money.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... n.amp.html

China and Hong Kong together have donated 1.7 billion dollars to US universities since 2013.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.inquir ... utType=amp