The reason we know about the high rate of infection in apparently a symptomatic people is Iceland. Even South Korea and Norway were testing mostly symptomatic people or those who sought the test...

The blood serum test would be key to being able to test everyone. Essentially it will be a test akin to a blood sugar test for diabetics...
The results are almost immediate. I saw one being made in Ottawa on display on the local news yesterday. I don't know when it would be ready and they were still waiting for validation by Health Canada.

I could see nations like South Korea, Norway, Japan immediately committing to and accomplishing this and returning to near normal after isolating those found infected.

Probably other nations would start on that path as they managed to roll out tests. In Canada flu vaccines are freely available and easy to get. I get mine at a pharmacy every year...
I expect a similar program would be rolled out for this... Except that testing would be required for anyone to return to work or school.... (We have that requirement for schools for vaccinations) . Based on how most businesses have responded to the stay at home orders, I think 80 to 90% compliance could be achieved in three weeks if enough test kits are manufactured..

We're unencumbered by an ideology that makes an organized national response with full compliance difficult to achieve in the US though. You'd need a strong competent President, which Trump ain't.

I was watching an interview of Bernie Sanders and he was saying that if things were going to get back to normal at some point were going to need to know that people allowed to go back to work have been certified to be free of the virus. And he noted that would require a massive increase in testing. With this president I dont think thats possible but maybe he'll surprise. Who knows? But any scenario of opening up things where we dont know whether people are walking around with the virus seems foolhardy.

Ricky:

For one, I suspect fundamental religions to have lost a a lot of adherents. Partly because I expect those groups will be hit harder (attrition), but also partly because of a greater appreciation for science

.

That's not what I'm seeing.

I also suspect that there may be a shift in the US, where the attitude towards government as a solution may gain credence.

And I think Trump may finally degrade support below an electable level after his performance in this crisis.

It's quite amazing but Trump's support is stronger than before. Biden is not demonstrating competency and Trump is dominating the news. Although the country is 50:50, Trump's supporters are enthusiastic whereas Biden has an extremely low enthusiasm level.

Although a strong federal government is necessary in a pandemic, what we are seeing is government incompetency whether it is procurement of ventilators and testing equipment or planning ahead. None of this has increased my respect for our government and its ability to handle much of anything.

In my state we can't even roll out effective on-line schooling because we are worried about it being unfair to the 5%? of kids who don't have internet. So the 95% have to suffer.

Maybe I'm too cynical but i figure a lot of these people

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... oronavirus

will get sick.... and maybe a lesson like that will be a jolt?

rayjay

It's quite amazing but Trump's support is stronger than before.

Yes.Its the "rally round the leader" phenomenon that happens in a crisis. Reagan saw that. Bush II after 9/11 had a huge surge in support. Trump bump was about 4 points. Lowest ever.
And his approval numbers have already started down again today per 538.
It will largely depend on how much blame Trump gets for the delayed reaction to Covid and what the eventual butchers bill is...
Its really just started after all.

rayjay

Although a strong federal government is necessary in a pandemic, what we are seeing is government incompetency whether it is procurement of ventilators and testing equipment or planning ahead. None of this has increased my respect for our government and its ability to handle much of anything

South Korea, Norway, Iceland, Germany.... lots of nations have had far better reactions to the pandemic. So its not "government that's screwed up.... its the US government.
And specifically Trump and some republican governors.

By September some countries will be returning to a more normal life and their economies will start bouncing back. China has already. I doubt that the US will because the per capita infection rate looks to be higher because of the late start and poor compliance rate.
If thats the case, the election won't be close.

Even though Joe Biden is impossible to get excited about, by anybody. Even Jill.
He'll still seem to be a more competent administrator and a nicer person.

He might also drive a little enthusiasm by revealing his cabinet choices before the election.... By choosing a woman VP he expects to drive some enthusiasm. And with some well chosen cabinet choices .... maybe he can dial up enthusiastic support that he can't get by himself.
But frankly his most important weapon is not being Trump. The any body but Trump vote will be very enthusiastic.

So the next "scariest thing" about Covid 19, is that ventilators only save about 25% of those Covid patients placed on one. If you survive, you tend to be on it for 7 to 10 days... And come out of it with reduced lung capacity...

The next scariest thing after that is that besides being low on ventilators most countries are also no low on the drugs required to place someone on a ventilator. Guess where almost all of those drugs are made?
China and India.
In fact the raw materials to make the drugs are almost an exclusive Chinese product....

It's shocking that an administration that is ideologically opposed to the government being asked to do much...would be incompetent when events required that it do something.

A lot of the time government in a democracy is not designed to be terribly efficient. Checks and balances can get in the way of that. Bureaucracies can get in the way of that. But there are some good
, competent people in government. And in a national emergency the government is given more power by our system so that it can get things done.

I dont care if Trump is more popular--right now we are paying for the election of a person that is completely incompetent. And people warned that if there was a crisis we were going to pay big time for that. But, no, that was just Democrats crying about losing an election...

The bill has come due...at the very least let's learn something from it. The government had been incompetent in handling this pandemic because the man at the top is incompetent! And, yes, I think Hillary would have been a lot more competent at it. Because Democrats in general have a bit more faith in government. The pandemic group in the NSC would not have been done away. Her ego would not have gotten in the way of recommendations from experts. I think she would have appointed a competent czar to coordinate a federal response who would have built up needed supplies (testing kits, masks, beds, personnel etc) and distributed resources to hot spots as needed.

Republicans continue to think that government is incompetent, it can do no right. That's how we got 9-11, the Financial Crisis and this pandemic disaster that we're going to be lucky to get through somewhat unscathed...

By the way, universal broadband would cure the unfairness of the 5% being left behind. Kind of seems a typical problem of our system. Same thing with healthcare. Certain things everyone should have. We can compete over who has nice houses, nice cars, whatever...but certain things everyone should have.

Yeah, I read that the survival rate for people that go on ventilators was pretty low. I guess one could argue that if we run out of ventilators it wont make much difference...but maybe it makes people at least more comfortable. And even 25% is not negligible, anyway.

freeman3

A lot of the time government in a democracy is not designed to be terribly efficient. Checks and balances can get in the way of that. Bureaucracies can get in the way of that. But there are some good
, competent people in government. And in a national emergency the government is given more power by our system so that it can get things done.

I think this is a uniquely American perspective. Bureaucracies in most liberal democracies are designed to operate to fulfill citizens needs, and when they operate inefficiently there is a political cost paid by the government . So there is constant improvement. (Now I've never experienced what some say is the worst; French beauracracy, other than the Quebecois version which is more rigid than in English Canada, but it also does function quite well if you follow the process exactly).
In the US,bureaucracies seem to have two purposes. 1) fulfilling their mandate 2) making sure no one is benefiting from their mandate by 1 cent more than they should.
Just an observation.


freeman3

And even 25% is not negligible, anyway.

My daughter is an epidemiologist. Tells me last night its closer to 20% recovery after intubation for ventilation.
Still 20% is better than no chance...

As Woody Allen said about "death sentences", "Many prefer to pay fines".

Trump's incompetence is breathtaking, but he's not the only government actor who has been incompetent. School districts throughout the US have shutdown because of concerns about a few percent who do not have internet access. Teacher unions have not been helpful; nor have many of their supporters in state and local governments.

Nor is this a US only phenomenon. Other democracies have made terrible mistakes. Italy's government failures have resulted in many lost lives. Where are the contingency plans? What preparations have been made. This is not all because of Trump. Meanwhile international organizations have failed us too. The WHO endorsed China's view.

As you might already know, the out-going Obama Administration went through an exercise with Trump's transition team. And they had a pandemic team part of the NSC (removed by Trump). So that's some level of preparation.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politi ... mic-132797

I think some governors in some states have responded well (California, Washington, New York, Ohio, Illinois); other have not. At the federal level Trump's ineptness, and devaluing of competency in his appointments (and overall aligning himself with people that were hostile to government regulation) has made assigning blame to anyone else at the federal level difficult. The CDC certainly appears not to have performed well and you wonder if that is due to Trump clamping down on dissent. Certainly, Gauci appears highly competent.

LA Unified is doing virtual learning, but is having problems with it, perhaps due to some students not having internet access at home.

https://edsource.org/2020/thousands-of- ... ng-school-

It is frustrating because some things that are so bleedingly obvious that should be done are not being done and frankly I assume a more competent president with the help of competent appointees would be doing them. It is absurd that states are working with each other to share equipment and the federal government is not coordinating a response. It is perfectly obvious that the federal government should be ordering the making of massive amounts of amount of medical equipment and distributing it and redistributing where needed. And ordering that testing capacity be built up, because surely that will be one of othe keys to getting the economy built up again.

I do have to wonder what the heck people in government do with their time if they have not developed plans to deal with an obvious possible disaster like a pandemic. All those people in FEMA don't know what to do if a pandemic hits? It's frustrating.

rayjay

The WHO endorsed China's view.

What do you mean? WHO was probably slow to declare a world wide emergency but here's what China did: Which I think shows that the Chinese view was that this was a very dangerous virus requiring very serious action.

On 23 January, Wuhan and 15 other cities in Hubei province were placed under strict quarantine after the area was inundated with coronavirus infections. Healthcare workers were drafted in from all over China to help, and two hospitals were built in just over a week to care for the rising number of patients.
The lockdown affected more than 50 million people. Public transport services were shut down, including buses, railways, flights, and ferries. In Wuhan, the airport, railway station and metro transit system were closed too – and no one could leave the city without permission.
Soon after, the doors to factories, offices, and schools also closed. And authorities used popular social platforms and apps to monitor movement, with a green, yellow and red traffic-light system on people’s mobile phones helping officials determine if the user should be allowed past guards at train stations and other checkpoints.

The fact that nations didn't act, after noting the severe actions China took, isn't Chinas fault. Nor is a lack of information or data from China. There were lots of infectious disease experts from all over the world in Wuhan.
On January 23, this is what Chinese experts were telling the world:(The Chinese View)

“Conservative estimates suggest that the scale of infection may eventually be 10 times higher than SARS,” said Dr. Guan, director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at the University of Hong Kong, told China’s Caixin media group on Thursday. Dr. Guan spent two days in Wuhan this week.

https://canadanewsmedia.ca/sars-virolog ... far-worse/

We need to stop blaming China because we didn't respond effectively. And lets face it; blaming WHO - when the President of the US was saying the virus wasn't going to hit the US well after WHO had declared an emergency ... again - would it have mattered to the US administration if WHO had declared a pandemic Jan 23 instead of Jan 31 when they did?

rayjay

Nor is this a US only phenomenon. Other democracies have made terrible mistakes. Italy's government failures have resulted in many lost lives.

Yes. Mistakes aren't unique. But whats unique is that the delayed response and lack of an effective response in the US is in large part by how some governors and many people respond to the Federal government actions. When told to isolate Italians did so. They just got told too late.
In the US there are still states not isolating and despite all the evidence still large groups refusing to comply in places where an order is in place.
I understand Iran has an awful lot of non-compliance as well. As does Belarus and Brazil. So maybe unique is too strong.

You got to be kidding, Ricky. The Chinese tried to suppress info about the virus when it first started. There is no dispute about it. It is also likely that they are unreporting cases and deaths. Why? Because totalitarian states do that--they suppress and control information to suit their purposes. And I forget the name of that Chinese doctor who was 34 who was the first to report these unusual pneumonia cases (helping to force the government's hand), got detained for his efforts and died even though given his age he probably had about a 1 in 500 chance of dying. Just unlucky I guess.

Ricky:

Maybe I'm too cynical but i figure a lot of these people

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... oronavirus

will get sick.... and maybe a lesson like that will be a jolt?

No, it's not a function of your level of cynicism. It's that you don't use an objective approach to support your conclusions.

Smoking, obesity, etc. cause many more deaths but that doesn't change the entirety of certain human behaviors. The deaths from Coronavirus will be much lower. To expect that to impact the belief in religion (which stayed strong through the bubonic plagues, small pox, etc.) is to think that the world works on the basis of your internal biases as opposed to evidence.

freeman3

You got to be kidding, Ricky. The Chinese tried to suppress info about the virus when it first started. There is no dispute about it

Yes from Dec. 24 to Dec 29 the local Party officials tried to stop local health officials from communicating their findings. Once the National administration got involved WHO was notified, and as soon as the genome was sequenced (Jan.4?) it was shared with the world. A day later many countries had working tests.
Do you think the 4 days made a huge difference in the response by the rest of the world?(By the way, the 4 day delay also negatively affected the Chinese response.)

The local party officials who interfered with the doctors in Wuhan were all disciplined. Is the governor of Georgia or Florida going to be held responsible for their lack of action ?

rayjay

To expect that to impact the belief in religion (which stayed strong through the bubonic plagues, small pox, etc.) is to think that the world works on the basis of your internal biases as opposed to evidence

I admit I have a bias towards the use of evidence and rationale thought in making decision. Which is why I think peoples faith may be affected if they expect their faith to offer protection when it won't. Maybe your right and it won't matter...

This was written some time ago by a guy named Bill Chen on Quora:(The last line is the kicker. )

The world knew about covid-19 in December 2019, because China told us.

The world knows China has the greatest number of victims, because China leads the world in the number of tests.

The world knows China implemented the most extreme Nationwide quarantine and containment program, including putting entire cities on lockdown.

The world owes the epidemiology of covid-19 to the Chinese, because they have the greatest volume of clinical experience.

The world knows the DNA sequence of covid-19, because chinese experts isolated and decoded the virus in record time.

The world knows even if only one or two in a thousand develop symptoms that require hospitalization, the local healthcare system will be overloaded, if not overwhelmed. Wuhan was the perfect warning.

The world knows the outbreak can be defeated the old fashioned way without a vaccine because the Chinese have shown the way. All it takes is political will to upset the public.

China bought the world time, which was squandered by many countries woefully unprepared when the disease reached their shores.

This is what China has already shared with the world which many countries have ignored or dismissed. How else do we interpret the lack of measures and even test kits in first world economies in March 2020?

Put another way, if America is not making use of available information, why put the blame on unavailable information?