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Emissary
 
Posts: 1526
Joined: 15 Oct 2002, 9:34 pm

Post 19 Jul 2019, 9:39 pm

I haven't been on the site in an age but I've thought about you political minds quite often lately. I'm wondering what your takes are on the current "crisis" with Iran.

I guess specifically I am wondering what Iran hopes to gain by pushing the envelope with the west over the Straight of Hormuz?

I can't see a scenario whereby Iran's boldness plays out favorably for them. Am I missing something here?

How does any of this bravado on their parts improve their current plight under the revitalized sanctions?

Thanks for any insights.
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Statesman
 
Posts: 11020
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 21 Jul 2019, 12:33 pm

From their point of view.
They were abiding by the terms of the P5 +1 deal. All parties except US agreed.
US still left the deal and unilaterally began to enforce sanctions against Iran against the wishes of all allies except Israel. The sanctions are biting hard.
Britain, France and Germany have set up a vehicle for barter trade with Iran that will be able to handle small amounts. However, they say there is little they can do to ensure the vital oil sales Iran seeks.

They can either buckle under to US - although its unclear what the US actually wants. If its regime change - that's off the table. If its anything else that hasn't been stipulated.

Irans' only way to pressure the west ex US is to make them feel the pain that Iran is feeling. If they disrupt the economy enough, perhaps more steps will be made to find a way around US sanctions. (Around the banking mechanisms that go through New York) .
Since Germany and France would like this American control to be lowered too, and many would like to see the US currency lose its status as the key trade currency - there may be some chance of this, but probably not fast enough for Iran. I suspect everyone concerned is trying to run the clock on Trump and hope the US election ends the insanity.