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Post 18 Jun 2019, 10:25 am

Will Canada move to the right and elect the Conservative party? I look to the Canadian friend to enlighten us as to what their predictions are concerning the Canadian election outcome.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Summer-Pre-Campaign-Looms-Liberals-Trail-Conservatives
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Post 18 Jun 2019, 12:09 pm

https://www.ourcommons.ca/Parliamentari ... ystandings

The polls are too early. Canadians tend to form voting intentions over a few issues... and sometimes provincial politics affect federal politics.
Right now, in Ontario, the recently elected Conservative party has managed to move from 40% popular vote in the election less than a year ago to 20% in the most recent polls. Half the voting intention of the Liberals who don't even have a leader... Why? About a dozen really stupid policy decisions that affect too many people. (Cutting back on health care and education spending whilst apparently being willing to risk an almost billion dollar penalty to tear up a contract with brewers over retailing beer in the stores. ) To illustrate he was the only person introduced at the Raptors celebration yesterday who was roundly booed. He was so afraid of the crowd reaction he refused the opportunity to speak.)
In the past Liberal incumbent PMs have been really glad to campaign as if the unpopular conservatives in Provincial legislatures were their real opponents. And right now, 4 conservative premieres are going to the mat with Trudeau over the Federal carbon tax. A tax which is generally supported. And the issue of climate change is enormous in Canada. Usually #1 or #2 in importance in recent polling.
Scheer, of the Tories, hasn't even introduced a climate policy... Plus he's seen as a cypher for the Tory premiers.
There is one negative issue for Trudeau affecting this and its the construction of a pipeline for Alberta bitumen to the Pacific coast for export in tankers... The BC populace is generally against this, as are BC indigenous. And the pipeline has to go through their land.
A expanded pipeline to Eastern Canada is opposed by the Province of Quebec.
This Wednesday Trudeau will attempt to thread the needle over all concerns... and probably announce a go ahead for the pipeline. Whether he has actually settled with the First nations, or keep British Columbians happy we'll see.
Right now, I expect the Liberals to lose a few seats in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Some to the NDP and Greens in BC, the rest to the Tories.
I expect Liberals will actually end up gaining in Ontario, as Sheer combined with Doug Ford are crippling Tory hopes there. He'll also gain in Quebec, and maybe lose a seat or two in the Maritimes.
The problem for the Tories are that their policies and leaders are popular where the population isn't.
But, elections in Canada really aren't an on going event like in the US. Most of the country won't pay attention till the writs drop. By that time, if the issues continue to be health care, climate, the economy and who's best to deal with Trump....Trudeau will get to the magic 40 to 42% that usually spells a large majority.
The wild card, is whether or not some other party than the conservatives can grow support. There is some indication that a lot of people might desert the Liberals for the Greens ... surprisingly not the NDP. It seems that their leader just can't generate any interest or excitement plus the Liberals have left little room on the left for NDP policies that might catch fire.
Right now, Trudeaus' in okay shape, considering the chief opposition party's brand is tied to an incredibly unpopular premier with incredibly unpopular policies in Ontario - and an Albertan premiere who is despised in most of the rest of the country . Its so bad, that in Ontario the legislature has been porouged till after the Federal election to try and avoid any more controversy.
Funny how these things work.
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Post 18 Jun 2019, 12:49 pm

Interesting! Thanks for the insights.
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Post 19 Jun 2019, 11:23 am

Here's what I mean by rapidly plunging popularity...

Pollster John Corbett, the first to track Ford’s plunge in a survey for the Star on May 6, was not surprised by the negative reception at one of the largest public gatherings in Canadian history with some people saying there may have been as many as 2 million people along the parade route.

“He’s really, really unpopular,” Corbett said Tuesday, noting his own polling shows Ford’s personal approval rating has dropped 11 percentage points in the past month and now sits at -53 per cent.

Only 18 per cent approve of his performance with 71 per cent disapproving and 11 per cent unsure.
It’s not an arithmetical progression the way his popularity has been plummeting — it’s much more an exponential decline in popularity,” said the president of Corbett Communications.
“Eleven points in a month. You can’t get much below 15 per cent popularity, you just can’t,” he said, pointing to Ford’s 18 per cent approval.


https://www.thestar.com/politics/provin ... emier.html
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Post 13 Dec 2019, 11:25 am

Is there an update after the election? It looked like the Conservatives won the popular vote, but Trudeau remained Prime Minister.