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Post 02 Mar 2018, 5:19 am

Markets fall as Trump says trade wars are 'good and easy to win' (Guardian Business)

On aluminium tariffs, this seems a particularly bad idea. If the US steps up production of "new" aluminium (as opposed to the recycling of used Al), then it means more imports of Bauxite, or the very expensive re-opening of all the closed bauxite mining areas that were shut down between the 50s and the 80s.

Trade Wars are not easy to win, and they are not usually good for the economy, to see tariffs rising, affecting supply chains (which in a global industry are becoming ever more complex).

I am sure the markets will recover after the shock, and perhaps saner minds will prevail over Trump's rhetoric.

What with him flip-flopping all over the place after the MSD shootings (annoying both the NRA and the anti-gun lobby), and now this, are the wheels coming off?
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 7:41 am

danivon
I am sure the markets will recover after the shock, and perhaps saner minds will prevail over Trump's rhetoric


It's likely that as he is pounded by those adversely affected, and its the majority of industries, he'll eventually say "Who knew how complicated steel and aluminum production could be?"

His duties will drive up procurement costs for the American military and confuse highly integrated supply chains in the automobile industry that often have production shipping across the Canadian border and back dozens of times. Steel and Aluminum production in Canada was originally designated as part of the strategic industries for the US. So its not even clear if there isn't already protection for those imports...
If the repercussions affect US agricultural exports, as they are likely to, then farmers in areas that voted heavily for Trump will bear the brunt of the negative affects. (Its already happened to US agricultural exporters to Japan. Signatory countries to the TPP are picking up most of the US exports in these areas, as importers align themselves to ensure supply lines and duty certainties.)
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 7:47 am

sometimes I just agree with both Danivon and Rickyp ...
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 9:47 am

Ray Jay wrote:sometimes I just agree with both Danivon and Rickyp ...

You know it makes sense.

I may be a socialist, but I try to make sure I know how capitalism and markets work. Protectionism, especially initiated unilaterally, is a fools errand,
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 12:10 pm

To me...I am just thinking about a Mueller report recommending impeachment and corporate America thinking about trade wars and telling Republicans to get Trump out of there.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 1:18 pm

freeman3 wrote:To me...I am just thinking about a Mueller report recommending impeachment and corporate America thinking about trade wars and telling Republicans to get Trump out of there.


Frankly, I'm hoping for impeachment after substantial evidence so that it doesn't split the country and we have a more normal guy running the country.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 1:26 pm

Agreed. It needs to be a compelling case. Like the case against Nixon.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 1:31 pm

freeman3 wrote:Agreed. It needs to be a compelling case. Like the case against Nixon.


It wouldn't be a bad thing if Trump delivered some progress on gun policy and provided a little more brinksmanship vis-à-vis North Korea first. Pence wouldn't be able to deliver either of those.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 1:43 pm

freeman3 wrote:To me...I am just thinking about a Mueller report recommending impeachment and corporate America thinking about trade wars and telling Republicans to get Trump out of there.


Then again, you have impeachment for breakfast, lunch, and dinner, with impeachment pie for dessert.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 1:45 pm

Ray Jay wrote:
freeman3 wrote:Agreed. It needs to be a compelling case. Like the case against Nixon.


It wouldn't be a bad thing if Trump delivered some progress on gun policy and provided a little more brinksmanship vis-à-vis North Korea first. Pence wouldn't be able to deliver either of those.


I think we are headed for a political realignment, something like during and after the Civil War--four major political factions. The two-party system isn't cutting it right now.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 1:55 pm

danivon wrote:Markets fall as Trump says trade wars are 'good and easy to win' (Guardian Business)

On aluminium tariffs, this seems a particularly bad idea. If the US steps up production of "new" aluminium (as opposed to the recycling of used Al), then it means more imports of Bauxite, or the very expensive re-opening of all the closed bauxite mining areas that were shut down between the 50s and the 80s.

Trade Wars are not easy to win, and they are not usually good for the economy, to see tariffs rising, affecting supply chains (which in a global industry are becoming ever more complex).

I am sure the markets will recover after the shock, and perhaps saner minds will prevail over Trump's rhetoric.

What with him flip-flopping all over the place after the MSD shootings (annoying both the NRA and the anti-gun lobby), and now this, are the wheels coming off?


1. The wheels were never on. This is not a man with a philosophy.

2. He won't go so far as feared. And, it seems China is preparing to take its lumps on this one. I suspect he'll back off with regard to our allies.

3. This is the kind of thing that appeals to working-class Democrats. That's the group he has to appeal to. That's how he wins Ohio, Wisconsin, etc.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 2:30 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:
danivon wrote:Markets fall as Trump says trade wars are 'good and easy to win' (Guardian Business)

On aluminium tariffs, this seems a particularly bad idea. If the US steps up production of "new" aluminium (as opposed to the recycling of used Al), then it means more imports of Bauxite, or the very expensive re-opening of all the closed bauxite mining areas that were shut down between the 50s and the 80s.

Trade Wars are not easy to win, and they are not usually good for the economy, to see tariffs rising, affecting supply chains (which in a global industry are becoming ever more complex).

I am sure the markets will recover after the shock, and perhaps saner minds will prevail over Trump's rhetoric.

What with him flip-flopping all over the place after the MSD shootings (annoying both the NRA and the anti-gun lobby), and now this, are the wheels coming off?


1. The wheels were never on. This is not a man with a philosophy.

2. He won't go so far as feared. And, it seems China is preparing to take its lumps on this one. I suspect he'll back off with regard to our allies.

3. This is the kind of thing that appeals to working-class Democrats. That's the group he has to appeal to. That's how he wins Ohio, Wisconsin, etc.


There's a special election a week from Tuesday for a open House seat near Pittsburgh. That combined with Rob Porter's (an accused wife beater and a confirmed free-trader) leaving appear to be the reason for the sudden trade war. Throw in losing the common sense filled Hope Hicks, and the deterioration of the influential Jared Kushner and his stunning wife, you end up with even more unraveling than usual.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 2:32 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:
freeman3 wrote:Agreed. It needs to be a compelling case. Like the case against Nixon.


It wouldn't be a bad thing if Trump delivered some progress on gun policy and provided a little more brinksmanship vis-à-vis North Korea first. Pence wouldn't be able to deliver either of those.


I think we are headed for a political realignment, something like during and after the Civil War--four major political factions. The two-party system isn't cutting it right now.


I'm sure not one of the four will fully align with my own thinking.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 2:55 pm

Ray Jay wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:
freeman3 wrote:Agreed. It needs to be a compelling case. Like the case against Nixon.


It wouldn't be a bad thing if Trump delivered some progress on gun policy and provided a little more brinksmanship vis-à-vis North Korea first. Pence wouldn't be able to deliver either of those.


I think we are headed for a political realignment, something like during and after the Civil War--four major political factions. The two-party system isn't cutting it right now.


I'm sure not one of the four will fully align with my own thinking.


Maybe not, but it can't get much worse.
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Post 02 Mar 2018, 3:28 pm

Fate:
Maybe not, but it can't get much worse.


No; we currently live in paradise compared to what can happen ...