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Post 14 Feb 2018, 10:50 am

Doctor Fate wrote:Is annual borrowing of 20-25% of our budget acceptable?

How much interest will we pay if treasury bonds hit 5%?


There you go. Those are the right questions. Not if a national debt should exist at all. Discuss.
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Post 14 Feb 2018, 12:02 pm

geojanes wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:Is annual borrowing of 20-25% of our budget acceptable?

How much interest will we pay if treasury bonds hit 5%?


There you go. Those are the right questions. Not if a national debt should exist at all. Discuss.


Personally, I'm scared ****. When we hit the next recession, and our deficits are still sky-hi, what tools will we have at our disposal?

Using % of GDP is the right metric. In the 40's we exceeded 100% of GDP but it was worth it to defeat fascism, end the depression, and rebuild Europe.

The amazing thing is that the US Treasury is still leant the money at very low interest rates.

The other amazing thing is that this is what Americans want, by and large. Stimulus to increase defense spending AND social spending is very popular. The vast majority do not want to touch social security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Our government is responsive, but not responsible.

But now we will exceed 100% of GDP largely to take care of every single health need (and many non-needs -- ask anyone who has experienced the medical costs for little purpose for a loved one in their final month) of every American who cannot obtain private insurance, including those of us who are over 65, no matter what our circumstances. This is not the same dire emergency as winning WWII.
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Post 14 Feb 2018, 12:48 pm

Ray Jay wrote:Using % of GDP is the right metric. In the 40's we exceeded 100% of GDP but it was worth it to defeat fascism, end the depression, and rebuild Europe.

The amazing thing is that the US Treasury is still leant the money at very low interest rates.


Because it's the safest investment.

For now.
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Post 14 Feb 2018, 4:16 pm

Ray Jay wrote:
geojanes wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:Is annual borrowing of 20-25% of our budget acceptable?

How much interest will we pay if treasury bonds hit 5%?


There you go. Those are the right questions. Not if a national debt should exist at all. Discuss.


Personally, I'm scared ****. When we hit the next recession, and our deficits are still sky-hi, what tools will we have at our disposal?


I agree. As I posted here before, the labor force is only projected to grow at a rate of 0.5% a year over the next decade or so, but what I didn't say is that virtually all of that growth is due to do the projected doubling of the labor force participation rate of those over 75 years of age from ~11% to ~25%.

I don't know about you all, but as I've gotten older, I can't work as hard. I've gotten smarter at working, so I'm more productive, but I can't imagine 1) working when I'm 75, and 2) if I did, being any where near as productive as I am today. At 75 a nap would sound good.

Cut immigration, rely upon senior citizens working longer and harder, and that's how you're going to get 3% growth every year? It's truly magical thinking.
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Post 14 Feb 2018, 6:05 pm

geojanes wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:
geojanes wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:Is annual borrowing of 20-25% of our budget acceptable?

How much interest will we pay if treasury bonds hit 5%?


There you go. Those are the right questions. Not if a national debt should exist at all. Discuss.


Personally, I'm scared ****. When we hit the next recession, and our deficits are still sky-hi, what tools will we have at our disposal?


I agree. As I posted here before, the labor force is only projected to grow at a rate of 0.5% a year over the next decade or so, but what I didn't say is that virtually all of that growth is due to do the projected doubling of the labor force participation rate of those over 75 years of age from ~11% to ~25%.

I don't know about you all, but as I've gotten older, I can't work as hard. I've gotten smarter at working, so I'm more productive, but I can't imagine 1) working when I'm 75, and 2) if I did, being any where near as productive as I am today. At 75 a nap would sound good.

Cut immigration, rely upon senior citizens working longer and harder, and that's how you're going to get 3% growth every year? It's truly magical thinking.


Right now the US takes in about 1 million people per year. About 1/2 is humanitarian, and about 1/2 is economic calculus. I bet there are 10 million hard working, college educated (or better), English speaking skilled 20 and 30 somethings willing to come into the US, even with our warts and all. They will be productive for years and share in our national debt. They would increase our economy, complement our existing strengths, and diversify our culture in a possible way. They and their kids and their grandkids will fit in. At the same time they will see the world through immigrant eyes and enhance our vitality. Most people buying houses in my town are first generation Asian immigrants, and it's all to the good,

We have a lot of open space here in the US. How many more people can we fit in next year and the year after that? We'd blow past 3% annual growth rates in no time.