freeman3
It's not magical thinking. It's figuring out what a reasonable, rational person would do when he sees that there are attacks against his missile sites but none against him personally. Magical thinking is a is trying to read his mind and assume that he would view any attack on his missiles as part of regime change when there is no actual evidence to support that assertion
First, you've claimed that the missiles could be taken out, without providing any evidence to counter the evidence I produced that indicates its highly unlikely that 100% of capabilities could be eradicated in a first strike.
Second its magical to think that the risk of him interpreting a strike as anything but an attempt at regime change (namely him) is low. He kills all his potential opponents in NK. Uncles and brothers...
Do you not see the contradiction in you assuming he'll view a "limited" strike rationally but that he's potentially irrational enough to use Nukes as a first strike weapon ....You're as tied up in logic knots as fate usually gets..
freeman3
If we hold the line on not allowing ICMS he'll stop...for now.
He already has ICBMs... And the latest is that they have miniature war heads too.
https://www.wired.com/story/north-korea-miniature-nuke/freeman3
Look. He is not suicidal
So why would he launch a missile attack on the US then? If he is as rationale as you think he'll know that means his destruction.
The only point in having ICBM nukes is to retaliate if the US strikes first. They are a deterrent, not a weapon of first use.Eespecially not by a nation that could not wipe out its opponent ...and would know retribution would be complete destruction.
freeman3
It is significant that you have been unable to answer DF's question about how do we stop NK from selling their knowledge regarding ICBMs to the highest bidder if we allow them to master the technology.
I think its the nuclear capability that is a problem. Terrorist organizations might want that...
Though again, they have a source already. However I assume this is a case for the intelligence departments of all the nations in the world working against ISIS and Al Queda et al...
Who else wants ICBMs? Where would they put them? North Korea is a mountainous country with about a third of the country providing sites where they can hide military installation... Particularly underground...
And they have a massive military budget compared to their size, and an autocrat who's priority is the military...
Who are the likely customers?
Somalia? Boko Haram? ICBMs? Please be realistic.
Iran has already walked away from nuclear development.
Syria? They have Russia to protect them and nurture any weapons development ...