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Statesman
 
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Post 10 Apr 2017, 1:27 pm

freeman3
Germany was not nearly as ready to go to war in 1938 as it was in 1939.

Neither Great Britain nor France were really ready either. France was committed to a defensive strategy (The Maginot Line) and would have had trouble attacking Germany. Britain had their navy... but that wouldn't have helped the Czechs materially.
Nor Russia, who had a pact with Czechoslovakia and would have been compelled to come to their defence.
If Germany did invade Czechoslovakia, so would have Hungary and Austria... And although the Czechs had a decent army, they had almost no air force. Which made all the difference in their eventual invasion of the low countries and France...
In effect the war would have started a year early.... Perhaps if the Russians had engaged earlier it might have ended earlier.
Hackers point is that he thinks that there would have been a coup by German generals if Hitler did invade Czechoslovakia.
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Post 10 Apr 2017, 1:42 pm

bbauska
RickyP said the comments by Susan Rice could be true. Apparently the Washington Post would disagree with him. Susan Rice was given 4 Pinocchios for her Syrian comments.

Fair enough. This January she was BS ing...

The rest of what I said was
And 4 years later they have made more... Or, at the time of the deal, the Russians, who were the players responsible for removing the weapons played everyone.
Both possible.
The deal and the execution of the deal depended upon the Russians.

Faced with attempting the deal, or going to war with Syria, and their partners (Iran and Russia) what would you have done? Wasn't the deal worth a try? There were no chemical weapons attacks in Syria for 3 years after the deal. (Barrel bombs and other monstrous acts yes....)


Faced with no support fro military intervention in Congress, and a military estimate that the best a bombing campaign could have achieved was 2/3 destruction of Syria's chemical arsenal .... Obama tried something else.
In the end it didn't work.
But then kids killed by barrel bombs, or artillery or machine guns are just as dead as by chemical weapons. And there's been no solution to any of those weapons either.

And this latest bombing has accomplished nothing but got Rex off Putin's calendar.
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Post 10 Apr 2017, 3:28 pm

Are you saying that the use of WMD means the same to you as a bombing? Wow. I would think that a WMD usage would be a step up of hostility.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki only caused 129,000 casualties. Hardly a drop compared to 2 million Japanese casualties. I guess you don't think the use of Atomic weapons are that big of a deal. Perhaps the usage of Mustard gasses in World War 1 doesn't bother you that much compared to the total loss of life.

I find a major problem with your thinking in this situation. A WMD usage is an increase in the lethality of weaponry. You complain about the increased lethality of firearms, but seem laissez-faire about a WMD. After all, what does it matter if another kid is gunned down in Chicago? Kids are dying from accidents in vehicles at a much higher rate.

Does anyone else see the dichotomy in RickyP's reasoning?
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Post 10 Apr 2017, 3:31 pm

rickyp wrote:Yes. Was he wrong to try and gain support for a foreign war?
He was also following the constitution in doing so...


Sure, just like he did in Libya.

Obama had a tenuous relationship with the Constitution. http://thefederalist.com/2017/01/19/10- ... residency/

My favorite was when he justified creating new immigration law because Congress "would not act." This in spite of multiple times he said he didn't have the Constitutional authority to do so.

Please, don't try to rewrite history by saying he gave a fig about the Constitution. He didn't want the political blowback.

Fate
A POTUS can take short-term action in defense of American interests. So, I disagree with Rand Paul here.

What American interest is served in this strike?
How different is the situation on the ground today than in 2013 when Congress and Trump were opposed?


1. Trump wasn't President, so he didn't have the intel he has now.
2. Obama didn't ask for a one-time strike.
3. The situation in Syria is far more complex--because of Obama's fecklessness in 2013.
4. US troops are on the ground, so we have an interest in eliminating the use of chemical weapons.

Fate
Was that the deal? Was Syria allowed to keep some? Did Kerry/Rice/Obama tell us ALL of the chemical weapons were gone? What was the verification regime?

The deal wasn't kept, by the Syrians or the Russians. Ultimately it failed but it kept chemical weapons out of play for almost three years. And it did deeply degrade Assads chemical stockpile...


Thank you for admitting Obama was a failure.

It hasn't worked ultimately. But it was a worthwhile attempt.
How is one missile strike stacking up against this attempt?


We don't know yet. Ask me in 4 years--that's how long it took for you to admit Obama failed.

Fate
That's not what the Obama team promised.

Promised? Hoped for, more like.


Bull. Kerry and Rice spoke with certainty.

Again, a worthwhile attempt that has saved lives perhaps. And certainly served to keep the US from being sucked into the Syrian quagmire for 4 years. You in favor of sending in 100,000 troops?


Hundreds of thousands have died as the result of Obama's spinelessness.

Fate
If the US wanted to wipe out those air strips, we would have wiped them out. As for the long-term effect, it's hard to tell after two days.

Destroying all the air strips was Hillary's plan... You support her foreign policy?
And its not hard to tell after two days. The Syrians are already flying bombers out of the same air field to bomb the same town that they attacked with chemical weapons.


Let me know when Assad uses chemical weapons again. My guess is he won't survive a week afterward.

Fate
So what? If he prays before Putin's statue every morning, that does not prove collusion.

Putin is guilty of many of the same war crimes that Assad is committing. (See Czechnya).
He murders journalists.
And yet Trump admires him....


"Admires" is present tense. Please provide some evidence.

Oh, you have none? How rare.

What does that prove? You've elected an idiot.


Yes, but at least he's not a crook. And, he did appoint a conservative to the Supreme Court.

And on an apparent whim he's spent at least $60 million to dust up a Syrian airfield because he got emotional. Something he apparently managed to avoid in 2013. (Maybe Fox news didn't show pictures of the gas victims in 2013?)


Once again, you descend to the depths of scum. Well, it is your natural habitat.

1. It was closer to $100M. Maybe your lefty sources don't give you "replacement costs."
2. We saw the gas victims in 2013--they were all over the media. The problem was we had a jellyfish as POTUS. That's why you loved him--invertebrates tend to befriend one another.

Fate
Based on what information?

Who knows what Mr. Comey is finding. I suspect financial records and dealings will come to bear. Intercepted communications too.


Oh, you "suspect." Well, that's as valuable as . . . the used tinfoil on your head.

And eventually someone will decide to cooperate with his investigators rather than take the fall for lying to the FBI. (A crime in and of itself.) And then who knows how many of Trumps team are indicted? I have 8, in the office pool.
Why do you think Trump is wagging the dog right now?


More tinhattery.

Fate
Some of it is "self-inspection." I'm sure the Iranians will be ruthless on themselves

Bull.
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/f ... ess-by-any


:laugh:

One word: Syria.

Fate
You are not providing context. What did Obama ask for? How long did it take him to ask for it? Obama is the man who took months to announce a slight change in policy in Afghanistan. He was a ditherer of the first order.

The context is that Congress didn't support action in Syria. Meaning he couldn't back up his "red line" in any meaningful way. His mistake was expecting Congress to care about the fate of hundreds of Syrians being gassed in 2013.


Lazy.

No one trusted Obama because they knew what a spineless wimp he was.

Let’s look at the timeline:

August 20, 2012. “We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.”

August 21, 2013. Major chemical attack on Ghouta, Syria. Approximately 3,600 people killed or injured.

August 22, 2013. Crickets.

August 31, 2013. Obama says he will ask Congress to authorize him to do nothing in Syria. He says inaction “risks making a mockery of the global prohibition on the use of chemicals weapons” and that it put U.S. regional allies that share a border with Syria in danger.” Pay attention to this:

Yet, while I believe I have the authority to carry out this military action without specific congressional authorization, I know that the country will be stronger if we take this course, and our actions will be even more effective.

September 3, 2013. Senate Foreign Affairs Committee holds a hearing. Committee passes resolution by 10-7. Please note that the Senate was Democrat controlled.

Democrats:
Bob Menendez, New Jersey Chairman – yes
Tom Udall, New Mexico – no
Chris Murphy, Connecticut – no
Ed Markey, Massachusetts – present
Barbara Boxer, California – yes
Ben Cardin, Maryland – yes
Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire – yes
Chris Coons, Delaware – yes
Dick Durbin, Illinois – yes
Tim Kaine, Virginia – yes

Republicans:
Bob Corker, Tennessee Ranking Member – yes
John McCain, Arizona – yes
Rand Paul, Kentucky – no
Jim Risch, Idaho – no
Marco Rubio, Florida – no
John Barrasso, Wyoming – no
Ron Johnson, Wisconsin – no
Jeff Flake, Arizona – yes

September 4, 2013. “I didn’t set a red line. The world set a red line when governments representing 98 percent of the world’s population said the use of chemical weapons are abhorrent and passed a treaty forbidding their use even when countries are engaged in war.”

September 6, 2013. Harry Reid files the resolution. Whip counts indicate senators were lukewarm-to-negative about the resolution.

House schedules testimony from John Kerry. Initial whip counts show the resolution is not a huge favorite with anyone. Even among Democrats who had decided on how to vote the resolution would fail by a 2:1 margin.

September 10, 2013. Syria agrees to give up its chemical weapons. Obama does a victory dance. No further action is taken on the resolution.

Let’s review the bidding: Obama waited ten days to decide to punt the decision to the Congress. When he did punt, he said he didn’t need to ask them but he was going to be a nice fella and do it anyway to make the little people feel involved. It was almost as if Obama consciously tried to poison the well with the House. Afterward, how did he react?

Early in the Syrian civil war, Obama publicly drew a red line concerning Assad’s behavior, but later decided to forgo military strikes, even after being presented with near-definitive proof that Assad had crossed the red line in grotesque fashion. Obama was widely criticized at home and abroad—particularly by the leaders of many U.S.-allied nations—for behavior interpreted as feckless and weak, but he later told me, in one of the interviews I conducted with him for a 2016 article on his worldview, that he was “very proud of this moment.”

“The perception was that my credibility was at stake, that America’s credibility was at stake,” Obama explained. “And so for me to press the pause button at that moment, I knew, would cost me politically. And the fact that I was able to pull back from the immediate pressures and think through in my own mind what was in America’s interest, not only with respect to Syria but also with respect to our democracy, was as tough a decision as I’ve made—and I believe ultimately it was the right decision to make.”

The “immediate pressures” he successfully “pull[ed] back from” was the pressure to attack Syria. He never intended to strike Syria and cynically used the US Congress to give him cover for his decision.


Fate
How many have died between then and now?

Plenty. Would you have landed 100,000 troops in Syria to intervene?


We didn't have to. Obama did everything wrong. He (through his press secretary) virtually invited Russia in. He refused to try and arm the rebels. He refused to take any kind of action vs. ISIL except lob missiles.

There were options other than 100,000 troops. That's just lazy liberal blather.

Congress didn't approve of any action..... so his hands were tied weren't they?
By Congress. (Mostly republicans)


Wrong, as usual. The Senate was controlled by Democrats. (See above) Obama didn't want to do anything, but didn't want to give that impression. So, he tried to give blame to Congress.

Fate
Who all but invited the Russians in?

Congress?


Sorry, but are you a liar or just stupid?

The White House said Thursday that Russia had “further isolated itself” by carrying out airstrikes in Syria and was putting itself in jeopardy.

“The fact is that carrying out indiscriminate military operations against the Syrian opposition is dangerous for Russia,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters.

He said Russian interference would prolong the sectarian conflict inside Syria. “It also risks Russia being drawn even more deeply into that conflict,” he said, pointing out that Russia already had acknowledged there could be no military solution in Syria.

Earnest also said that what he called Russia’s “indiscriminate” strikes would drive moderate elements of the Syrian opposition toward extremism, and ultimately exacerbate extremism inside Russia.

Russia's actions in Syria have not led to a "broad re-evaluation" of the U.S. strategy there, Earnest said.


Over and over again, the White House did nothing but mumble.

When the civil war broke out, how many Russian planes were in Syria?

Zero.

In August 2015, Russia began to send Russian-operated warplanes, T-90 tanks and artillery, as well as combat troops to an airbase near the port city of Latakia in Syria.[128][129]

On 26 August 2015, a treaty was signed between Russia and Syria that stipulated terms and conditions of use by Russia of Syria's Hmeimim airport, free of charge and with no time limit.[130] The treaty, ratified by Russia′s parliament in October 2016, grants Russia′s personnel and their family members jurisdictional immunity and other privileges as envisaged by Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.[131]


Fate
Who cut a nuclear deal with Iran while allowing Iran to continue to support Assad with troops?

Germany, Britain, France, the EU, China, Russia and the US cut the deal.
Would you rather Iran had nuclear weapons now?


Do you ever stop being idiotic? Really? Ever?

I really hope you find a good doctor who can help you.
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Post 10 Apr 2017, 7:35 pm

My apologies for responding to the Hitler/Munich/attempted coup thing. And by the way, the ringleader was actually Ludwig Beck, who would later participate in the one in 1944 (he would have been made President if it worked).

But I digress.

I'm sorry but if Obama had stopped Assad in 2013, there are 70+ Syrians who would still be alive today and hundreds of others who wouldn't be crippled. That's what happens when you think talking saves lives.
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 9:21 am

hacker
I'm sorry but if Obama had stopped Assad in 2013, there are 70+ Syrians who would still be alive today and hundreds of others who wouldn't be crippled. That's what happens when you think talking saves lives.


So you supported the Libyan intervention? Which was organized and conducted because of crimes against humanity?

On 19 March 2011, a multi-state NATO-led coalition began a military intervention in Libya, ostensibly to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973. The United Nations Intent and Voting was to have "an immediate ceasefire in Libya, including an end to the current attacks against civilians, which it said might constitute crimes against humanity" ... "imposing a ban on all flights in the country's airspace – a no-fly zone – and tightened sanctions on the Qadhafi regime and its supporters." The resolution was taken in response to events during the Libyan Civil War,[19] and military operations began, with American and British naval forces firing over 110 Tomahawk cruise missiles,[20] the French Air Force, British Royal Air Force, and Royal Canadian Air Force[21] undertaking sorties across Libya and a naval blockade by Coalition forces.[2


The reactions to anything done internationally by Obama had little to do with conditions on the ground.... only the domestic need for republicans (conservatives) to take an opposing position to what Obama wanted to do. Often changing their positions when Obama did. (see newt)

So they opposed his unilateral actions in Libya. (Although they were conducted through NATO and with broad allied support and participation). Even though Ghadaffi was conducting a genocide in Libya, and allies begged the US to lead, he was criticized broadly for not going to Congress....
Then they failed to get on board by supporting him on Syria... And yet criticized him for not acting when he failed to get support for such...

Its the usual pretzel of hypocricy. And it continues with Trump...


bbauska
Are you saying that the use of WMD means the same to you as a bombing? Wow. I would think that a WMD usage would be a step up of hostility.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S ... mb_attacks

Attacks on civilian non-combatants with weapons like barrel bombs are war crimes. Apaprently the carnage that the use of this weapon against almost exclusively civilians .... isn't worthy of a response?
But chemical weapons is... Well, eventually? After Trump sees some pictures on Fox...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Use_of_ch ... _Civil_War

More have died from the bombings. And as far as I'm concerned a war crime is a war crime. I see no difference between the act of killing children with barrel bombs or sarin.
How do you parse the difference?
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 9:32 am

A sobering article on the potential costs of the Trump Administratiin not having a clear foreign policy.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.bbc.co.u ... p/39568261
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 9:35 am

By the way, isn't it clear that Tillerson needs to be fired...post haste? I would take Lindsay Graham in a microsecond over this guy, who is obviously in way over his head.
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 9:36 am

The reactions to anything done internationally by Obama had little to do with conditions on the ground.... only the domestic need for republicans (conservatives) to take an opposing position to what Obama wanted to do. Often changing their positions when Obama did. (see newt)


Welcome to politics 101, buddy. (btw: was Newt still in Congress at this time? He certainly wasn't speaker anymore.)

Its the usual pretzel of hypocricy. And it continues with Trump...


If you're looking for a lack of hypocrisy in any country's international relations, you're going to be looking for a damn long time. Not making a value judgment, it's just the way of the world, kiddo.

More have died from the bombings. And as far as I'm concerned a war crime is a war crime. I see no difference between the act of killing children with barrel bombs or sarin.
How do you parse the difference?


Not sure where you're getting that.

So you supported the Libyan intervention?


Hell yes I did.

Which was organized and conducted because of crimes against humanity?


Damned if I know. I don't get to sit in on cabinet meetings.
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 9:39 am

freeman:

A sobering article on the potential costs of the Trump Administratiin not having a clear foreign policy.


The clueless, inconsistent, incoherency of American foreign policy worries me as much as it seems to worry you. Welcome to Washington. (Or rather, the dept of State.) It has been said that during the Cold War the two parties had a "consensus" on foreign policy. With the cold war over there is no longer that consensus. In fact, I don't think America's really had a "clear" foreign policy since the Monroe Doctrine (let alone a consistent one).
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 9:57 am

I am fine calling war crimes as they are... war crimes.

I was pointing out your lack of concern over Sarin. Yes, Barrel bombs are bad. They are flying IEDs for goodness sakes! I put gassing your own people above that. You apparently don't. What if Assad drops a nuke on his people (yes, I know he doesn't have nukes, but we thought he didn't have WMDs either, AKA Susan Rice)? Do nuke drops not make more of an impact in your reasoning that a barrel bomb?

There are war crimes such as a guard at Auschwitz, and then there were war crimes such as Joseph Mengele. One is worse. Can you not parse that?
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 2:57 pm

bbauska
I was pointing out your lack of concern over Sarin. Yes, Barrel bombs are bad. They are flying IEDs for goodness sakes! I put gassing your own people above that. You apparently don't.

No my scale of atrocities hits ten with purposefully barrel bombing civilians. I don't see any point in saying anything is really worse than that. Its all rock bottom.

After Libya organized the Munich disco bombing in 86 Reagan responded by trying to kill Ghadaffi.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_Unit ... g_of_Libya

Not much I agree with Reagan on, but going after the specific leader who is responsible for crimes against humanity makes sense. Make them responsible for their actions personally. And make them pay with their lives if you can. (There are countless attempts to kill ISIL leaders. I think the #2 has been killed multiple times... To the point where the #3 is probably turning down promotion)

Assad acts with impunity because he believes that, after the debacle that was the Iraq invasion and occupation, no nation is willing to pay the price of intervening in Syria. And he has his Russian and Iranian backers...
Going after Assad rather than nearly empty airfields, evacuated after the Russians were warned, would make sense.
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 3:00 pm

hacker
Welcome to politics 101, buddy. (btw: was Newt still in Congress at this time? He certainly wasn't speaker anymore.)

he was running for President.
And if you want to understand inconsistency in foreign policy, here's the current reason.
Blind partisanship.

Gingrich knows that consistency no longer matters: The only explanation for Gingrich's "obvious and public U-turn," says Kevin Drum at Mother Jones, is that he just doesn't think such inconsistencies matter. And he may be right. "The media doesn't really care" anymore, and the GOP base "doesn't read ThinkProgress," so Gingrich has learned that he might as well be "really brazen about your flip-flops." That must be "pretty damn liberating."
"The new media rules"

Sure, Gingrich is consistent — about opposing Obama: Gingrich is simply letting us know that "he thinks whatever Obama isn't doing is the right thing to do," says Brian Doherty at Reason. He's certainly not the first politician to flip-flop like this — Joe Biden threatened to impeach George W. Bush for waging war without Congress' green light, which Obama essentially just did. But it does make Gingrich "an absolutely 100 percent shoo-in to be one of the guys dropping out of the GOP presidential race in 2012 early."

http://theweek.com/articles/486173/newt ... t-thinking
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Post 11 Apr 2017, 3:24 pm

Thank you RickyP. That was very enlightening about what is important to you.

What should anyone do to the leader of Syria for dropping barrel bombs? Perhaps a letter of condemnation? Sent to bed with no dessert? Dis-invited to the UN dictators ball?

What?
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Post 13 Apr 2017, 1:14 pm

Blind partisanship.


Agree with you there that blind partisanship is an ever-increasing problem. However, I don't agree it's the reason for America's broken foreign policy. I think the last time we had a consistent foreign policy was the Monroe Doctrine.