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Post 14 Jul 2011, 6:08 am

Doctor Fate wrote:
geojanes wrote:I'm confused. Do you think he's wrong?


I know he's wrong. He "can't guarantee" those checks will go out?

Really? Who decides what gets paid first?

Answer: Treasury Secretary, who works for???


What a strange concept. The debtor in default deciding who gets to get paid first. Bankruptcy lawyers all over the country are trying to get their heads around this. Because in all other organizations in default the CFO (or Treasury Secretary) wouldn't decide anything. It would be a bankruptcy court.

I think he's telling the truth. He doesn't know what would happen. I don't think anyone does, other than the chaos and panic that would ensue.
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 7:49 am

geojanes wrote:What a strange concept. The debtor in default deciding who gets to get paid first.


No, here's the strange concept: if we don't agree to borrow more money by Aug. 2 that automatically means bankruptcy? I am confident you cannot demonstrate that. Are you suggesting the President will declare bankruptcy? Boy, that would be a political loser!

There will still be income. There won't be enough to cover EVERY aspect of government, so the executive branch will have to decide what to pay. If he only pays the interest, Social Security, and our troops, we'd still have money left. So, then he would have to pick who got paid.

That's why the SSI checks not going out is pure fearmongering.

Now, is that an ideal situation? No. Could it lead to some functions of government that actually matter not being funded? Yes. However, it's a long gap between not being able to borrow more money and having no money at all.

Bankruptcy lawyers all over the country are trying to get their heads around this. Because in all other organizations in default the CFO (or Treasury Secretary) wouldn't decide anything. It would be a bankruptcy court.


Again, prove (don't just assert) that a failure by Aug. 2 to borrow more means we're bankrupt. Then, and only then, will I concede.

Why? Because you're making it up--just like the "Great Man."
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 9:03 am

Uh, OK. Let me turn this around. What do you think defaulting on your debt means? Does it just mean, juggling who gets paid this month?
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 9:13 am

geojanes wrote:Uh, OK. Let me turn this around. What do you think defaulting on your debt means? Does it just mean, juggling who gets paid this month?


Not a problem. To "default" means not to meet your obligation. So, when the US misses a mandatory payment of some sort or other, we would be in "default."

So, now that you've answered a question by asking a question--and I've answered it--why don't you answer mine: Why does failing to raise the debt ceiling by Aug. 2 mean we necessarily will default? What payment will be missed?

Please, don't demagogue it. I am not saying we should not lift the ceiling. I do believe that doing what Obama wants (lifting it without meaningful cuts, then embarking on stimulus), will lead to disaster. That's not the same as saying we should default.
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 10:07 am

Which payments are not 'mandatory', then?

Salaries are mandatory. Contracted benefits are mandatory. Utility bills are mandatory. Maturing Bonds are mandatory.

Basically, all debts are mandatory to pay back if you don't want to default. Once you fail to pay back one creditor, you have defaulted, by definition.

Now...

Doctor Fate wrote:Please, tell me what the $2T in cuts are. You seem to be the only one who knows.
My my source isn't one of the politicians who might have an interest in attacking the opposition...

Guardian 2 days ago:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ju ... -agreement

John Boehner, the top Republican in the House of Representatives, told reporters that "the debt limit is [Obama's] problem". At the weekend Boehner jettisoned the search for a big compromise deal, rejecting Obama's proposal for a package that would reduce the federal deficit by $4tn over 10 years. The rejection left the Republican party – the supposed party of small government – in the surreal position of proposing a smaller reduction in the deficit, which they now want to see cut by just $2tn.

At the heart of the Republican resistance is their refusal to contemplate tax increases, even those including removing tax loopholes on oil profits or private jets.


Things have changed since:

Sydney Morning Herald today:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/testy-obama ... 1hfxs.html

The President's latest $US2.4 trillion plan would include about $US700 billion of revenue raised by closing tax loopholes mostly benefiting wealthy Americans.
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 11:00 am

Doctor Fate wrote:
geojanes wrote:Uh, OK. Let me turn this around. What do you think defaulting on your debt means? Does it just mean, juggling who gets paid this month?


Not a problem. To "default" means not to meet your obligation. So, when the US misses a mandatory payment of some sort or other, we would be in "default."

So, now that you've answered a question by asking a question--and I've answered it--why don't you answer mine: Why does failing to raise the debt ceiling by Aug. 2 mean we necessarily will default? What payment will be missed?


Well, in normal circumstances, if you owe someone money and don't pay it, they'd file a suit asking a court for their their legally obligated payment, a list of creditors would be determined and the court would decide who gets paid and how much. So I don't think anyone can say what payment would be missed. Why would you think the executive branch gets to decide? Legally, I think the Supreme Court would probably be on firming footing, but of course, since they're creditors too, they'd probably recuse themselves.

I would be shocked if there wasn't some wiggle room in that August 2nd date, however. I can't believe that income & expenditures could be so precisely forecasted. Nevertheless, it is, and remains, completely retarded to be playing politics with something that could blow up the entire world economy.
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 11:03 am

danivon wrote:Which payments are not 'mandatory', then?

Salaries are mandatory.


Not if the workers are laid off.

Contracted benefits are mandatory. Utility bills are mandatory. Maturing Bonds are mandatory.


True, but there are many, many billions that are not.

Basically, all debts are mandatory to pay back if you don't want to default. Once you fail to pay back one creditor, you have defaulted, by definition.


Even so, what evidence is there that Aug. 2 is the magic "default date?" I know there are many "bills" that are not due until Aug. 15th. My point is that the whole "SSI checks may not go out" thing is rubbish.

Doctor Fate wrote:Please, tell me what the $2T in cuts are. You seem to be the only one who knows.
My my source isn't one of the politicians who might have an interest in attacking the opposition...

Guardian 2 days ago:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/ju ... -agreement


Whoo-boy, you've bought it here mate. First, I would note what the President has made public. See, a "leader" is one who announces a plan and then brings the disparate parties together to hammer out a deal. Obama, on the other hand, has negotiated like, in Boehner's word, "Jello."

the guardian wrote:John Boehner, the top Republican in the House of Representatives, told reporters that "the debt limit is [Obama's] problem". At the weekend Boehner jettisoned the search for a big compromise deal, rejecting Obama's proposal for a package that would reduce the federal deficit by $4tn over 10 years. The rejection left the Republican party – the supposed party of small government – in the surreal position of proposing a smaller reduction in the deficit, which they now want to see cut by just $2tn.

At the heart of the Republican resistance is their refusal to contemplate tax increases, even those including removing tax loopholes on oil profits or private jets.


Second, it is the President who has refused any short-term deal.

Third, the loopholes and private jets nonsense would be, total, a miniscule percentage of the problem. Break out a calculator and prove me wrong--in terms of overall deficit.

Fourth, the alleged (yet to be proven) proposals Obama has made are well down the road. In other words, most of them would not take effect until he's out of office--even if reelected. This is "I'll gladly eat a hamburger today and agree to pay for it in 8 years." Additionally, they included the usual "smoke and mirrors"--cuts in projected spending, which is not actual savings. If he were offering "real cuts," why not take those to the public? All but the fringe right (even past me) would be outraged. The answer is obvious: he's made no such offer.

From Politico:

Obama told Cantor that he would either have to agree to tax increases or give up on his demand that the debt hike be matched dollar-to-dollar to the cuts — that is, $2.5 trillion in deficit-reduction over 10 years in exchange for a $2.5 trillion hike in the debt ceiling.


Fifth, they want smaller cuts because the President took entitlements off the table, after saying he would negotiate them (hence the "Jello" crack).

Things have changed since:

Sydney Morning Herald today:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/testy-obama ... 1hfxs.html

The President's latest $US2.4 trillion plan would include about $US700 billion of revenue raised by closing tax loopholes mostly benefiting wealthy Americans.


The main point is the President has run into someone who won't just roll over and play dead. He wants to continue spending like there's no limit. He's broadly hinted that he wants another Stimulus after the budget is resolved.

Please don't forget the US Senate, Democratically controlled, has not passed a budget in over 800 days. The Democrats went on an unbudgeted spending spree and are now asking the Republicans to go along for the ride. So far, they have resisted.
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 11:11 am

geojanes wrote:Well, in normal circumstances, if you owe someone money and don't pay it, they'd file a suit asking a court for their their legally obligated payment, a list of creditors would be determined and the court would decide who gets paid and how much.


Right, but this presumes there is nothing coming do that is optional. You don't know that.

For example, suppose we're $10B short and we have a $10B green energy subsidy due. If we don't give money to some company that's going to spend half of it in China anyway, are we in "default?"

I don't know. Here's what I do know--there is no chance, zero, that even if the GOP doesn't give Obama a nickel, the SSI checks fail to go out.

I'll bet all the dollars in the Social Security Trust Fund on it.

So I don't think anyone can say what payment would be missed. Why would you think the executive branch gets to decide? Legally, I think the Supreme Court would probably be on firming footing, but of course, since they're creditors too, they'd probably recuse themselves.


National Parks can't be closed? Corn subsidies can't be stopped?

Look, if we HAD to get by for a few weeks, I think ol' Turbo Tim Geithner and the President could make it happen.

I would be shocked if there wasn't some wiggle room in that August 2nd date, however. I can't believe that income & expenditures could be so precisely forecasted. Nevertheless, it is, and remains, completely retarded to be playing politics with something that could blow up the entire world economy.


Okay, so why is the President playing politics? He knows what needs to be done to get a deal, still he insists on not doing it. Would it wound him to make actual spending cuts?

Apparently.
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 12:18 pm

I kind of agree with Steve on this one. Everybody seems intent on trying to blame Republicans for not raising the debt ceiling. Why. They have given Obama exactly what he wanted in the past. A short term increase on the agreement that further negotiations would include real cuts being made. Now Obama and the Democrats seem to backing out of the deal. They refuse to agree to any cuts.

The Republicans have negotiated in good faith only to be screwed by Obama and the Democrats.
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 2:01 pm

I am NOT claiming Rove is unbiased. However, he seems to have a handle on the numbers. Some of them, frankly, show Obama's intransigence:

President Barack Obama and Congress face a mess if the federal government hits the debt ceiling Aug. 2. The Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank, projects that the government will receive $172 billion in revenues between Aug. 3 and Aug. 31, but it is on the hook to spend $306 billion, leaving a shortfall of $134 billion.

On Tuesday, Mr. Obama told Scott Pelley of CBS News that "there may simply not be the money in the coffers" to issue Social Security, veterans and disability checks after Aug. 3.

Not so. The $172 billion in revenues collected over the rest of the month can pay the $29 billion interest charges on the national debt, Social Security benefits ($49 billion), Medicaid and Medicare ($50 billion), active duty military pay ($2.9 billion), Department of Defense vendors ($31.7 billion), IRS refunds ($3.9 billion), and about a quarter of the $12.8 billion in unemployment checks due that month.

There will, however, be no cash for highway construction, no checks for federal workers or retirees, no agriculture payments, no open national parks. Interest rates are also likely to rise if U.S. debt is downgraded, adding massively to the deficit and further damaging the economy. This would be a disaster with no political winners.

The president wants a $2.4 trillion debt-ceiling increase to get him past next year's election—and the deal he's proposing is based on promised future cuts paired with substantial tax increases on households earning more than $250,000 a year.

House Speaker John Boehner proposed matching a debt-ceiling hike with substantial spending cuts. The Congressional Budget Office estimates federal spending at $46.1 trillion over the next 10 years, a dramatic escalation from projections before Mr. Obama took office. Mr. Boehner's modest proposal was to trim that back 5.2% over the decade, but the president balked.

Yet the $4 trillion in deficit reduction that Mr. Obama talks about is shy on details. No one who's attended his frequent negotiating sessions knows what his proposal really is.

The president has made a bipartisan agreement even more difficult by declaring certain spending off-limits to cuts. Mr. Obama's "untouchable" list includes his $1 trillion health-care reform, $128 billion in unspent stimulus funds, education and training outlays, his $53 billion high-speed rail proposal, spending on "green" jobs and student loans, and virtually any structural changes to entitlements except further squeezing payments to doctors, hospitals and health-care professionals.


Really? We're in the crisis of the century and we can't put unspent Stimulus money on the table? High-speed rail?

Really?

He will veto any short-term deal? "Don't call (his) bluff."

Really?

The man is as unserious as can be.
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Post 14 Jul 2011, 4:11 pm

But taxes are also off the table. I find it disingenuous to dismiss some ideas as too small. Many such proposals together would make a difference. If the idea imported from our government of 'we are all in this together' were adopted,tit would have resonance.
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Post 15 Jul 2011, 7:16 am

danivon wrote:But taxes are also off the table. I find it disingenuous to dismiss some ideas as too small. Many such proposals together would make a difference. If the idea imported from our government of 'we are all in this together' were adopted,tit would have resonance.


I know in another forum you suggested Reagan would be scorned by today's Tea Party because he was a moderate (or words to the effect that he was a middle of the road candidate). Did Reagan fail to put his plans on paper--to be specific. Was he nebulous when he an O'Neil negotiated a Social Security deal?

I recorded an interview with Boehner last night on Greta's show. Boehner said the President has made no concrete proposal.about what specific cuts he was willing to make.

Now, suppose Boehner's lying. He's said the same thing on multiple occasions. What would a genuine leader do?

Well, he could contact Boehner privately and remind him of his precise cuts and all the times he proposed them. Or, he could go public with them.

Or, he could let the Speaker of the House continue to "defame" him.

So, please, isn't it obvious? Can we have a moment for Ockham's Razor? Ah, I found the interview. 13 minutes and worth watching. Is Boehner crazy? Is he immature? Is he credible?

Boehner went on to say that the President "isn't serious" about cutting the budget.

Again, apply common sense. If the President was willing to make cuts, we would not be where we are today.
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Post 15 Jul 2011, 3:24 pm

Whole issue is rather silly; if a rating agency downgrade causes borrowing costs in the public markets to rise, Congress can simply require the Fed to "deploy its balance sheet" to buy treasury debt. That essentially amounts to printing money to pay the government's bills (and has accounted for a majority of treasury borrowing over the past year). One wonders why the treasury bothers with its bond auctions at all. No borrowing=no worries about debt service and no pesky debt limit.

Of course, the result is dilution and devaluation of the currency, but that seems to be what the Fed is aiming at anyway (under the fancy name "quantitative easing"), so why worry?
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Post 15 Jul 2011, 4:30 pm

Nice try, Republicans. If you want massive cuts in spending then you need to do it legislatively. You are not going to blackmail Obama into getting what you never would have gotten otherwise. The party that will be blamed for the government default will be the party that did not vote for extending the debt ceiling. Cry all you want--this is going to end badly for you. Have you forgotten the government shut-down of 1995 and who was blamed for that?

First, you propose changing medi-care to a voucher program (yeah I know you say that would not apply to those over 55 and you know the voters over 55 tend to vote Republican, but they like Medi-care and they don't want it changed, not just for themselves but for their children and grandchildren--brilliant political move, that) . Then you want to force the government into default...You must really want Obama to win in 2012.
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Post 15 Jul 2011, 5:14 pm

Machiavelli wrote:Of course, the result is dilution and devaluation of the currency, but that seems to be what the Fed is aiming at anyway (under the fancy name "quantitative easing"), so why worry?


That's right. What's a little hyperinflation between friends?