GMTom wrote:shocking for sure but no sham. Not only did Trump win, but he won the popular vote as well (less than 50% but more than Clinton) and the US just got it's version of Brexit. People wanted change and this was their opportunity for just that.
It also put polling on it's ear, RickyP must be having a mind implosion about now but it really didn't shock me that the polls were so off. I have said before the US is more Conservative than Liberals wish to think and the silent majority is in fact Conservative. These silent folks also tend to avoid taking part in polls. Throw in those who simply lied because they could not admit they actually voted for Trump and there you have it, a shocker that really wasn't if you knew the true feelings of Americans.
Well, seems that Clinton actually got a little more than Trump. No popular mandate for either of them, and no compromise possible.
The polls were not massively far out, there are several things to bear in mind:
1) The margin for error for most polls is at least 3%. Meaning a poll putting Clinton up by 48 to 45 could be within reach of a Trump lead of 48 to 45 (or a Clinton lead of 51 to 42).
2) The polls were moving away from Clinton for the week or so before the election. When the FBI announcement happened, it coincides with a slide in Hillary's support, which was seen over the next week in national polling. Several polls showed a Trump lead.
3) The state polls - at least in the places that swung it for Trump - were also worse for Clinton and while the narrowing at a national level seemed to slow, it was not reflected consistently in those states. Now some states are hard to accurately poll (Michegan is one, as voters are not party registered like in most states), and polling tends to be more sporadic - and with some smaller and less well known pollsters involved.
I agree that America, like the UK, is more conservative than many on the left hope. But it is not a massive difference, and things change over time. Also, Trump was not only backed by conservative voters. Some of those who consider themselves to be conservative voted for McMullen or Johnson. And there were a number of people who would have voted Sanders who went for Trump.
Just as it would be a mistake for the Democrats to assume that the country is more liberal than it is, it would be for Trump and the Republicans an error to assume this result reflects a mass unwavering support for conservative policies.
The reality seems to me to be more mixed, and exacerbated by the feeling I get that neither party really reflects those who vote for them all that well.