AP report

"Façade of unity," says Shin Bet chief.

Reuters: different reactions in WB vs Gaza

Iranian ambassador to Syria: new Palestinian unity could be "a serious danger to the Zionist regime."

Just a few stories - add more. My opinion: the desire of the Palestinian people for such a reconciliation is strong. I imagine that both Hamas and Fatah are feeling that pressure. So both have reason to want at least the appearance of an agreement. There will be ceremonies and symbolic acts but no real change. Illustrating the differences between these groups: statementsregarding the death of bin Laden. PM of Fatah/PA: "I would definitely view [Osama bin Laden’s death] as a major, indeed mega landmark event, marking the end of the life of a person who clearly was involved in egregious acts of terror and destruction. It is certainly our hope that this will mark the beginning of the end of a very dark era." Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' Gaza chief: "We condemn the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior. We ask God to offer him mercy with the true believers and the martyrs."

My prediction: Egypt's relationship with Hamas is entering a stage of rapid evolution. Depending on what happens with the protests/uprising in Syria, and the results of elections in Egypt, I can see anything from a slight relaxing of Gaza-Egypt border security to Egypt becoming the absolute patrons of Hamas - the faction in power in Egypt using that patronage to provide evidence to the Egyptian people that while there won't be all-out war with Israel right away, the spirit of the Sadat-Begin deal will no longer be honored. I imagine this would be a popular thing inside Egypt and, if handled correctly, easy enough to do without jeopardizing relationships with Europe, Saudi Arabia, other trading partners, NGOs or the UN. But I'm only predicting something within the range I described - not the worst-case extreme.

Feel free to ignore my opinion and prediction and simply comment on developments or add links to news stories.

I think it's also in part a reaction to what's been happening across the Arab world. Hamas faced demonstrations themselves, and I think that there is a worry amongst both them and Fatah that they could lose the will of the people if they don't change their course.

Egypt no longer crushes anti-Israeli demonstrations. If you value liberty that's not a bad thing (it's not like the opinion behind it will go away), but it's not good if it means that in the short-medium term Egypt's new more democratic regime is more responsive to anti-Israeli sentiments.

On your other point, the ideological differences between Fatah and Hamas remain, as do the tactical ones. What disappoints me is that Israel has been more hostile than it needs to be to this development. A 'wait and see' approach is what is needed - let's see what this means in terms of the new PA government, whether we get elections (and how free and fair they are) and what positions are taken before writing it off. Mark Regev really should be more diplomatic, given his role. But the Israeli government does appear to be a bit like a rabbit in the headlights with all that's going on.

Anyway, this does present an opportunity for the Palestinians, they could become more united behind a less corrupt and less self-destructive leadership, work to build themselves up and forge relationships. Or they could end up with their leaders (again) leading them up the garden path into more self-destructive conflict. I think we both hope for the same outcome.

danivon wrote:Egypt no longer crushes anti-Israeli demonstrations. If you value liberty that's not a bad thing...
...whether we get elections (and how free and fair they are)....

Pondering this news earlier I figured that somewhere along the line we'd hear something about how the will of the people, when expressed without artificial constraints or filters, must be respected. Ricky's always on about me being a hypocrite because I like democracy but dislike Hamas - the democratically elected yada yada yada. I see hints of this same line of thinking in your comments. It concerns me. It concerns me because there ought to be an enormous caveat attached to that respect for free expression, and if intelligent folk like you and Ricky don't see the caveat chances are most people in places like Canada and the UK don't.

The Palestinians, and to only a slightly lesser extent the Egyptian people, have been fed so many lies for so long that they have lost the ability to make decisions that accurately reflect their self-interest. Three examples to consider 1) the Protocols of the Elders of Zion and it's basic theme that there's an international multi-generational Jewish conspiracy to rule the world, 2) the libel that Jews need the blood of gentiles to make the matzohs for Passover, and the underlying theme of Jews being vicious inhuman demons, and 3) denial (or even reversal) of the holocaust.

I just spent about a half hour looking for objective public opinion polling data to support or refute an assertion that a significant proportion of Arabs in places like Gaza and Egypt believe one or more of these three big lies. (There are hundreds of small ones.) No luck. At best, there's polling on general opinion regarding Jews and Israel. My one success: a poll of Israeli Arabs showing that a third of them believe the holocaust never happened. These are Arabs who are not fed propaganda in grade-school textbooks or other forms of officially-sponsored disinformation. My guess is that solid majorities in most of the Arab world believe one or more of these big lies, and that overwhelming majorities believe any number of the small ones.

To some extent, Arabs in most places can access a wide variety of media. Does this mean that we should ignore the issue of whether grossly false beliefs render public opinion less than worthy of respect? I don't believe so. In the most free nations on earth not one single person knows the absolute truth about everything that goes on in the world, and there's plenty of false beliefs floating around. Does this mean that we should ignore the issue of whether grossly false beliefs render public opinion in the Occupied Territories about current events less than worthy of respect? I don't believe so. Our level of respect should be adjusted based on the level of misinformation extant.

Do I "value liberty" as Danivon puts it? No. Not as he puts it. There can be peaceful demonstrations expressing support for utterly despicable things because the people doing the demonstrating have been fed outrageous lies for generations by everyone they consider authoritative. The fact that they can choose whether or not they want to participate in the demonstration is an aspect of "liberty" with significance that vanishes to nothing. Of what value is the liberty of the brainwashed? Liberty must walk hand-in-hand with other things before it deserves respect: responsibility, transparency, academic freedom, an absence of fear of discussing all aspects of current events in public, multiple political parties on an equal footing, and of course a vibrant press.

Yes, I'm glad that the powers that be in Egypt today are, for at least now, not cracking down on public demonstrations that don't necessarily comport with official policy. But let's not suggest that when the door to freedom, which has been open a crack, is pushed open another few millimeters, a fat man can fit through the opening.

Danivon: you didn't directly assert the things against which I've railed. I don't want to create a straw man here. But I have seen excessive respect for Arab election results (i.e. in Gaza) and I simply wish to offer a broadened perspective. That respect should come with a caveat, and the caveat also deserves respect.

--- If anyone can find hard data on Arab belief in big lies (regarding Israel or anything else) I'd be obliged.

--- Note: some lies are dangerous, some are not. A belief in UFOs is much less dangerous than a belief that childhood vaccinations cause autism.

The Palestinians and Israelis seem to understand each other less with every year. Right now the Palestinians are playing to the rest of the world (Arab, European, American), but not to the Israelis. How does Abbas think Israel should react when he accepts Hamas, which calls for Israel's destruction and applauds terrorism?

Meanwhile, the Israelis seem to be in a fearful funk. Instead of embracing Arab yearning for democracy and its possibilities, the Israelis are fearful about what can go wrong.

ray
Right now the Palestinians are playing to the rest of the world (Arab, European, American), but not to the Israelis.

On what do you base this assertion?
Here's a few more plausible reasons for which Hamas Fatah are reconciling: All have only to do with local considerations...
-- fatigue amongst Palestinians in Gaza. At some point people get tired of living in dangerous squalor and look for new directions.
- recent economic gains in the west bank compared to the stagnation in Gaza
- fear by the leaders of Hamsa that their inability to deliver any progess in Gaza, either against the Israelis OR economically will bring about their downfall as rapidly as Mubarek was brought down.
- the Egyptians are pushing for reconciliation.... (see below)

At the same time, the foreign minister confirmed in an interview with Al Jazeera what had been rumoured for weeks - that Egypt would within days open the Rafah border crossing to Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas, a development that will effectively end a five-year Israeli blockade that Mubarak helped enforce.
Under the new regime, Cairo has also embraced the drive by the Palestinian Authority (PA) to gain recognition of a unified Palestinian state by the UN General Assembly in September and has reportedly urged Washington to do the same.
The Obama administration, however, has indicated that it strongly opposes the effort, insisting that such a move will undermine the "peace process", which, in any event, was effectively suspended last September. With Western European powers reportedly leaning in favour of the initiative, it appears unlikely that Washington can stop it.

source: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featur ... 82776.html
Is it surprising that Egyptians might embrace a policy more supportive of Plaestinians than the Mubarek regime? If US aid is the only major influence the US has in Egypt, , and the new government has already factored in its loss, then perhaps they are moving towards supporting Palestine in overt fashion. For Palestinians the reconciliation of Gaza and the West Bank is a necessary step towards progress. Without it, they really can't move forward in a coherent fashion.
That Israel has so greatly denounced it, probably makes it even more popular.
But whats important here is that Fatah has proven its conciliatory and pragmatic govnerment has been more sucessful for its people than Hamas' embrace of constant violence. There is reason to hope that the reconciliation is actually a sign that Hamas will be moderated, not that Fatah will be poisoned. There is reason to beleive that the Arab awakening has revived a faith in non-violent means that Fatah has preached (the economic embargo on Israelis businesses for instance) are going to be given a greater opportunity to build on its initial success.
Optimistically this is proof that a freer Arab world will work through peaceful means.
Skeptically this may seem dangerous to israelis who don't see a possibility of peace without Arab capitulation. And who also have legitimate reason to worry about increasingly capable Arab governments if they can't be certain they are committed to peace.

Minister X wrote:Danivon: you didn't directly assert the things against which I've railed. I don't want to create a straw man here. But I have seen excessive respect for Arab election results (i.e. in Gaza) and I simply wish to offer a broadened perspective. That respect should come with a caveat, and the caveat also deserves respect.

You are damn skippy that I didn't assert them. My reading of election results in Gaza and across the West Back is actually that a majority of Palestinians do not back Hamas, and a lot of those who did were expressing a protest against Fatah corruption.

However, there are two competing things here. We want (I assumed) for more people to be free from top-down rule and tribal / military / one-party dictatorships and to be part of a participative democracy. And yes, I value democracy far more when it is informed and based on honesty.

As for Arabs and the 'big lie'? Well, I'm not sure that any people is free from major deceptions. We all have our folk-myths and tend not to accept truths that challenge them.