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Post 22 Jun 2016, 1:06 pm

Polls say this is way too tight to call and it's REALLY interesting!
My guess is they stay.

Using my experience with American politics and polls as my really ill-informed guide,
I think the really vocal parties tend to be those who want change meanwhile the status-quo tend to be quiet and will vote to stay, enough to make that poll calling it too close to be less close than expected (it happened pretty much exactly this way in the recent Scotland leaving the UK vote)

Why no talk of this yet? C'mon Britt buddies, tell us your thoughts!
(the one English guy I work with says he would be voting to leave, but he's been here many years and is a bit out of touch with how things really are "back home")
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Post 22 Jun 2016, 1:49 pm

I'm voting Leave. I guess the reason we haven't had a thread on it is because there's only two Brits here and we both know each others position quite well enough not to bother.

The polls look tight, but I've always thought that it'll be a Remain vote in the end, and I still do. Brits tend to be quite conservative where these constitutional issues are concerned, and Leave is certainly the gamble option. I'm guessing it'll be about 53/47 in favour of Remain.

For me it's a simple question of democratic accountability. In essence, the trade-off with EU membership is that you sacrifice democracy for the sake of potential economic advantage. The way I see things is that I'd be happy to take the economic risk for the chance at regaining control of our own destiny, but I suspect a majority of my countrymen will disagree. We'll see on Friday morning.
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 4:25 am

A funny facebook post from the other day. "A new drinking game, turn on NPR and drink every time you hear Brexit." It really has been getting a lot of play in all media outlets, mostly saying that the economy of the western world will go into the toilet if Britain leaves.

Sassenach wrote:For me it's a simple question of democratic accountability. In essence, the trade-off with EU membership is that you sacrifice democracy for the sake of potential economic advantage. The way I see things is that I'd be happy to take the economic risk for the chance at regaining control of our own destiny


I like the way you described it Sass. No doubt I'd be with you had I a say.
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 6:05 am

I was kidding around with the Englishman here.
This would never EVER happen but follow
*the UK leaves the EU
*things go awry
*next thing you know they join the United States!

Of course it would not happen but it was fun to at least talk about. We have similar culture, the same language, we listen to the same music, watch the same TV shows, it goes on and on and while it would not happen, the more you think about it, it COULD make at least SOME sense.
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 8:17 am

GMTom wrote:I was kidding around with the Englishman here.
This would never EVER happen but follow
*the UK leaves the EU
*things go awry
*next thing you know they join the United States!

Of course it would not happen but it was fun to at least talk about. We have similar culture, the same language, we listen to the same music, watch the same TV shows, it goes on and on and while it would not happen, the more you think about it, it COULD make at least SOME sense.


I think more like expand the North American Free Trade Agreement to include the newly available UK.
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 8:33 am

now THAT could actually be done with ease and quite possibly could in the near future. What we were "discussing" was the two nations actually uniting as one. Again, this is never going to happen, never would, it was just fun talk (heck,add Canada to the talk if you like).

You could also alter to a "merger" vs the UK joining the states, I only put it that way because of the situation developing as it was (the UK leaving the EU and looking to join another group).

Think about it
The biggest issues could be worked out
National healthcare is already headed that way, in say a decade we could have similar systems?
Laws are very very similar, The US gives each state a lot of individual power that would allow the UK to keep many of her differences. Maybe we could even split so that 4 (or more) new States would be added (England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, maybe Bermuda, combine the US and British Virgin Islands into one and call them a new state as well? etc etc)

Maybe it's just me but I see how it could work.
Not that it WILL, just that it COULD
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 8:35 am

I voted to Remain.

For me the economy is quite key, and the savings in government funding can easily be wiped out if there is a slight impact on GDP.

In terms of democracy, the EU is far from perfect, but so is the UK. Indeed any system. What matters is how we deal with the defects. The UK could have a stronger voice in the EU - and indeed could work with other "non-core" members to protect from the Franco-German push for integration.

But we have spent the last 20 years or so whining, and arguing for special favours. And recently, electing a bunch of MEPs who explicitly undermine their own position.

The big problem for me is that there is no leave "plan" but a disparate set of wishes. But we will have to negotiate our new relationship with the EU, and they will have a set of red lines.
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 10:56 am

danivon wrote:For me the economy is quite key, and the savings in government funding can easily be wiped out if there is a slight impact on GDP.


Short-term pain is only worth it if that pain can be survived. Fair enough.

danivon wrote:The big problem for me is that there is no leave "plan" but a disparate set of wishes. But we will have to negotiate our new relationship with the EU, and they will have a set of red lines.


Well, it's not like there could be a fully scoped out plan, but the world is a big place. If successful, I hope the UK looks toward the New World. Would put it in a great negotiating position with the EU, and besides, it has never been a good fit, has it?
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 12:08 pm

geojanes wrote:
danivon wrote:For me the economy is quite key, and the savings in government funding can easily be wiped out if there is a slight impact on GDP.


Short-term pain is only worth it if that pain can be survived. Fair enough.
More than that. We need also to be better off after the pain. If mere survival is the goal, then I am even more worried.

danivon wrote:The big problem for me is that there is no leave "plan" but a disparate set of wishes. But we will have to negotiate our new relationship with the EU, and they will have a set of red lines.


Well, it's not like there could be a fully scoped out plan, but the world is a big place. If successful, I hope the UK looks toward the New World. Would put it in a great negotiating position with the EU, and besides, it has never been a good fit, has it?
The fit is better than many present it. We trade a lot with the EU. A lot of people value the ability to freely move in both directions (there are millions of Brits in the rest of the EU).

So if we wait until we have some influence from greater links with the New World, it could be a while before we can bring that to play. Besides, Spain and France have some strong links in the New World that they are already using. Some of the countries elsewhere we are talking about forging greater links with, such as China and India, have already said they prefer to deal with the EU and with the UK in it.

The world is indeed big. A country of 65M people and and GDP of c.$2.8Tn has some clout. But less than a bloc of 450M people and GDP of c.$16Tn. Take us out and the EU is still about 4-5 times greater as an economic market.

Now, an option is to be like Norway or Switzerland. They are smaller, but also much more fiscally secure than we are. They also are part of the European Single Market and have had to sign up to pay contributions and accept free movement of people. But they don't get any votes on the rules that they have to apply.

Being outside the Single Market would present a greater risk - would we end up with tariffs slowing down trade or increasing prices? Would international companies seen to locate elsewhere where they would get access to the Single Market (Ireland would look very attractive!)?
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 12:30 pm

I have a feeling if the UK left, those possible tariffs would be a certainty after the EU felt snubbed!
But the bottom line is people KNOW what staying entails, leaving is a mystery to all and that mystery worries many.

Even if things might be better by leaving, it would be minor at best and happen only after a bit of turmoil while there is a real possibility that turmoil remains a long time ...so why leave?

I hear stories here of Texas leaving the Union, I hear stories of Upstate New York and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan forming new States. Quebec leaving Canada (and i even heard long ago that if they did, Nova Scotia would join the USA ...again, very long ago I heard that big "if") Those are fun for those people to think about but when push comes to shove, they always remain the same and status-quo rules the day!
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 2:42 pm

danivon wrote:Now, an option is to be like Norway or Switzerland. They are smaller, but also much more fiscally secure than we are. They also are part of the European Single Market and have had to sign up to pay contributions and accept free movement of people. But they don't get any votes on the rules that they have to apply.


Wow that sucks. I didn't realize the consequence of the European Single Market. Thanks for taking the time to explain it to me.

I guess we'll all know soon enough!
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 3:37 pm

It's largely irrelevant now, since Remain is going to win, but for the record we wouldn't ever sign up to the Norway option. If we vote to leave then for the most part that means we've voted against free movement. If the government then tries to take us into a deal which involves no change to immigration it would be wholly illegitimate.
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 7:50 pm

GMTom wrote:I hear stories here of Texas leaving the Union, I hear stories of Upstate New York and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan forming new States. Quebec leaving Canada (and i even heard long ago that if they did, Nova Scotia would join the USA ...again, very long ago I heard that big "if") !


I think you're influenced by coolness of making a new map.
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Post 23 Jun 2016, 8:26 pm

Sassenach wrote:It's largely irrelevant now, since Remain is going to win, but for the record we wouldn't ever sign up to the Norway option. If we vote to leave then for the most part that means we've voted against free movement. If the government then tries to take us into a deal which involves no change to immigration it would be wholly illegitimate.

Looks like Leave may just shade it.

Pound plummets.
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Post 24 Jun 2016, 1:25 am

Leave wins. Cameron out by October. Wow.

It was a bit jarring to hear the Bank of England governor as he does not have a British accent. He's Canadian...I don't know that much about why this happened but it does seem related to some degree to economic discontent from those who don't reside in London or in Scotland, which are doing ok economically. The Gini coefficient is reported here to be around .4 for the UK, a large increase in historical terms. https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... lds-assets

Scotland reports their Gini coefficient is .3. http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/06/7453/6

It seems to me that Western governments need to figure about to make sure all boats are rising or, well, those who are not benefiting will reject the current system. The danger is that such people will turn to right-wing parties. It is dangerous to social and political stability to allow such income stratification. I mean, why vote for the current system when it isn't working for you?

What a historic miscalculation by Cameron. Of course, people will lecture the Brits for being so dumb. You can't fault people for saying leave when their prospects aren't good.