I'm going to have to give up making political predictions. Every call I made so far this year has been wrong. Dare I say it, I'm also predicting Trump to lose....

why vote for the current system when it isn't working for you?

exactly why Trump may win and if things settle down after a rocky start in the UK (they most likely will) it can show people in the US that change may be a good thing?

Not that the Brexit was a good deal and not that Trump is a good leader but this is democracy in action, it's a wake up call to those who keep doing the same thing to the same effect and expecting nothing to change.

My sincere hopes to the UK that things DO settle down and I really do hope things work better than expected (hey, it could happen?). I do not wish you guys any trouble and I especially hope it doesn't spill over to the rest of the world (as it already is with stocks falling all over the globe)

GMTom wrote:My sincere hopes to the UK that things DO settle down and I really do hope things work better than expected (hey, it could happen?). I do not wish you guys any trouble and I especially hope it doesn't spill over to the rest of the world (as it already is with stocks falling all over the globe)

Billions wiped off the value of the UK economy at a stroke. Far more than we put into the EU. Hopefully we recover, but it could take a while, and we won't be thanked if the ripples affect other countries.

freeman3

It seems to me that Western governments need to figure about to make sure all boats are rising or, well, those who are not benefiting will reject the current system

.

The question is whether the EU was responsible for the rising inequality. And I think not.
And the question is whether what comes after the EU will address inequality. Since there's no real plan about what to do after the exit, I doubt it.
Its not like England can do business with the rest of Europe and abandon all the regulations that people complained about. You want to export to France you follow the product and labelling regulations...
This strikes me as a largely self destructive action made without regard to the future. When one considers that the voting patterns show the youth voting to remain and the old voting to leave ....

At least Jamie Vardy voted to remain.

danivon wrote:Billions wiped off the value of the UK economy at a stroke.

I am reminded of a quote:

“If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”

That sounds nastier than I mean it: Money is not everything. It's really important, but there are more important things.

Oh, this one is pretty good too:

“It does not take a majority to prevail ... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.”

They're both from Sam Adams.

I'm not sure how he will take advantage of the UK exit but something tells me Putin is going to make major gains for Russia as a result of the Brexit. He will find ways to capitalize on the insecurity for sure.

dag hammarsjkold wrote:I'm not sure how he will take advantage of the UK exit but something tells me Putin is going to make major gains for Russia as a result of the Brexit. He will find ways to capitalize on the insecurity for sure.

Use it to try and get sanctions overturned or bypassed, drive a wedge between Europe and the US...

I'm sure our EU partners Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are suitably impressed.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ?CMP=fb_gu

What's your take on the move to unseat Corbyn Dan ? I must admit this took me by surprise a bit, and I think it's a little ridiculous if I'm honest. Yes, he was lukewarm for Remain at best during the campaign, but what exactly did people expect ? This is a man who's been a lifelong Eurosceptic, who voted to leave in 1975, who enthusiastically backed the 1983 manifesto with its commitment to unilateral withdrawal and who has voted against every single European treaty since. Of course he was lukewarm, he was being asked to lead a campaign for a cause that he doesn't believe in. It's bonkers to try and pin the blame for Brexit on Corbyn, especially so since his position was a lot closer to the view of the typical Labour voter than was that of the people who are now trying to unseat him.

Sassenach wrote:What's your take on the move to unseat Corbyn Dan ? I must admit this took me by surprise a bit, and I think it's a little ridiculous if I'm honest. Yes, he was lukewarm for Remain at best during the campaign, but what exactly did people expect ? This is a man who's been a lifelong Eurosceptic, who voted to leave in 1975, who enthusiastically backed the 1983 manifesto with its commitment to unilateral withdrawal and who has voted against every single European treaty since. Of course he was lukewarm, he was being asked to lead a campaign for a cause that he doesn't believe in. It's bonkers to try and pin the blame for Brexit on Corbyn, especially so since his position was a lot closer to the view of the typical Labour voter than was that of the people who are now trying to unseat him.

I think it's either stupid or genius.

Stupid: It would drive a further wedge between the MPs and the membership, it would cause a distraction at the same time as the Tories are going to start tearing into each other about whose fault it was and who is going to be the StopBoris candidate. And the chances are that if Corbyn is on the ballot he'd win re-election

Genius: if he ends up stepping down, we get a chance to elect a new leader who the "supporters" actually notice is closer to them - Corbyn's problem is that he avers a media presence.

Of course, if the next PM calls a General Election, then there are all kinds of possibilities - Corbyn rides a wave of anti-government feeling and benefits from a split right wing vote and wins. Or Labour loses and he's pretty much forced to resign.

Sassenach wrote:I'm going to have to give up making political predictions. Every call I made so far this year has been wrong. Dare I say it, I'm also predicting Trump to lose....

Scary. Me too. I think Hillary, if she is the nominee and Trump is the nominee, wins.

So, I'm hoping this year of surprises provides one more: either a Hillary indictment or something that stops one of them from getting nominated. This is like watching a slow-motion train-wreck.

Back to Brexit: I heard (was in Chicago playing Dip) that the working-class voted (overall) in favor of leaving. I'm sure some of it may be racism, but isn't it possible that a good bit of it is simply trying to preserve their jobs (or at least that's their perception)?

Doctor Fate wrote:

Sassenach wrote:I'm going to have to give up making political predictions. Every call I made so far this year has been wrong. Dare I say it, I'm also predicting Trump to lose....

Scary. Me too. I think Hillary, if she is the nominee and Trump is the nominee, wins.

So, I'm hoping this year of surprises provides one more: either a Hillary indictment or something that stops one of them from getting nominated. This is like watching a slow-motion train-wreck.

Back to Brexit: I heard (was in Chicago playing Dip) that the working-class voted (overall) in favor of leaving. I'm sure some of it may be racism, but isn't it possible that a good bit of it is simply trying to preserve their jobs (or at least that's their perception)?

Possibly, although I think people in work were more likely to vote Remain than people out of work.

We are seeing a spike in racist incidents, hopefully that dies down, but it can't be denied as a factor.

I'm sure it is! But I assume things there are the same as here in that if you support any possible side liberals are against then it MUST be for nefarious reasons. I have no doubt some are indeed racist, just like some did not want Obama simply because he is black. But heaven forbid you are against Obama for any other reason, the Libs accuse you of being racist!

danivon wrote:We are seeing a spike in racist incidents, hopefully that dies down, but it can't be denied as a factor.

I wouldn't and I didn't.

I've heard some that want to make this all about xenophobia. While it was a factor, maybe even the deciding factor, that doesn't mean that most of the people who voted to leave are racists--and I'm sure you'd agree. The "deciding factor" in a vote like that can be a very small section of the electorate.

Doctor Fate wrote:

danivon wrote:We are seeing a spike in racist incidents, hopefully that dies down, but it can't be denied as a factor.

I wouldn't and I didn't.

And I never said you did. People in the UK are.

I've heard some that want to make this all about xenophobia. While it was a factor, maybe even the deciding factor, that doesn't mean that most of the people who voted to leave are racists--and I'm sure you'd agree. The "deciding factor" in a vote like that can be a very small section of the electorate.

It is hard to accuse "some" of "wanting to make it all about xenophobia" when you had immigration front and centre of the campaigns at times. Even Remain were giving us scare stories about terrorism. I have seen for myself how some people have behaved during the campaign and afterwards. It was a minority of the Leave vote, but not a tiny one.

The main reason cited is more about "control" and "democracy". I understand it, and it is not nefarious (stop being a whiny victim, Tom). I do think they are misguided, though.

We are about to get a new PM. One elected by only Tory Party members (from a list of 2 determined by 300 or so MPs). It seems that the Opposition Leader will either go, or face a leadership challenge, prompted by less than 250 MPs. We may get a General Election, but the FPTP system and current party state means a minority of the electorate could vote for a winning sectional party (in a sense we probably need a hung parliament and "national unity government" just for legitimacy during negotiations).

One thing I am seeing, from the Leave supporters I know. A total unwillingness to accept that the immediate result is bad for the UK, or that the main promises of "Leave" (lots of money for the NHS, reduced immigration, restrictions on free movement with the EU/EEA) have been walked back by the Leave side's leading politicians. Of course when Remain campaigners said beforehand they were dodgy promises and the uncertainty would have economic repercussions , the response was derision and accusations of "Project Fear".

Why is that a problem?

If we want control, and democracy, and to use a key word as I see it - autonomy - we as voters need to accept responsibility for the outcome of our votes. Spotting falsehoods and unkeepable promises is vital. Of course the Remain campaign spread a lot of rubbish, too. But I figure that's because increasingly it has been found to work. The 2015 election campaign and the 2014 Scottish Referendum showed that fear, demonising the opposition, bribery and lies can win.