The Trump supporters "don't care" about Donald's foibles, they see them, they just don't care! Hillary supporters simply can't see any wrong.

it's strange, very strange!

What do you think the average Trump supporter thinks about his options? Trump is not bought and says some things he likes in immigration, on trade policy, on getting American jobs back. All the other options are certain to not try and help the white, high-school graduate with a cloudy economic future; at least there is a chance that Trump might do something in their mind. So given those perceived options, I don't think their tuning out all the negatives with regard to Trump is irrational.

I just don't know how Trump could ever appeal to women, Hispanic and black voters. I don't trust these early polls and I have doubts that Hillary can win given her negative perception among many voters. But I suspect Hillary will ultimately clobber Trump among those three demographic groups and narrowly win.

freeman3 wrote:What do you think the average Trump supporter thinks about his options? Trump is not bought and says some things he likes in immigration, on trade policy, on getting American jobs back. All the other options are certain to not try and help the white, high-school graduate with a cloudy economic future; at least there is a chance that Trump might do something in their mind. So given those perceived options, I don't think their tuning out all the negatives with regard to Trump is irrational.

I just don't know how Trump could ever appeal to women, Hispanic and black voters. I don't trust these early polls and I have doubts that Hillary can win given her negative perception among many voters. But I suspect Hillary will ultimately clobber Trump among those three demographic groups and narrowly win.

I actually think he could do well with "the blacks" (as he calls every group). Why? Because there's a certain level of brazenness that they expect in their leaders. I think some African-Americans will be drawn to his kind of rapper/playboy/high roller persona.

I don't think Trump will do well with women either, but his opponent is Hillary. I think there are many women who don't find her likable or "real."

Trump is toast with Hispanics. Dead meat.

His audience is middle class and working class whites. He seems to be doing well with them--for reasons I cannot explain--it could be that he's the nearest thing to a Kardashian ever to run.

As for anyone who doubts where Trump really is on the liberal/conservative line, this gives good insights: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/4 ... y-theorist

I'd put him center-left. He will run left of Hillary on trade and military intervention.

I can't stand the guy. I'll be 3rd Party for sure--or I'll write in a friend. I will be appalled if he's elected.

However, I'll be angry if Hillary is elected.

The one upside of Trump winning, the ONLY upside: watching Hillary denied. She's a very bad person--fundamentally dishonest.

I disagree with Bernie about most things, but I'd rather he was President than Hillary--that's how bad of a person I think she is.

Tom, what you mentioned of liberals failing to see flaws in their candidates, etc....

This is what I call "party jingoism", e.g., instead of my country right or wrong it is my party right or wrong; and this is just as responsible as gerrymandering for the mess we're in. Too many Americans now care about their preferred brand name, like it's Coke or Pepsi, and not something a little more critical to society. I've heard people say they would "vote for the Ayatollah if he's running on the [whichever] ticket" all too often. It is starting to hurt my ears. And Dems and Reps alike do it.

His audience is middle class and working class whites. He seems to be doing well with them--for reasons I cannot explain--it could be that he's the nearest thing to a Kardashian ever to run.

Spoken like a true Cruz supporter, if I haven't missed my guess? He seems more right up your alley than Trump, to be sure.

Tom: about people not caring about Trump's foibles: it's the old "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" principle. He's not the GOP "establishment" that some Republicans have come to loath. For whatever his faults may be--and they are many--as a candidate, people are going to vote for him who are tired of the GOP establishment. That's why Cruz lost.

Cruz isn't establishment either, they hate him even more than they do Trump. He lost because he's a slightly terrifying weirdo who gives people the creeps.

I fully understand the partisan stuff, but what I find quite often is the Conservatives seem to at least notice the problems on their side of the fence while the liberals seem to see nothing but their side. That's a broad generalization and does not apply to every single person of course, but I do see that in many circles, not just here.

as far as Trump vs Clinton
I think Clinton will take most women's votes but not as many as some are predicting. I keep telling you guys, I have spoken to dozens of women and have found NONE that even like Hillary even a little bit, many will chose her over Trump simply because Trump is a jerk, but TRUST is not on Hillary's side, to a person, none of these women I spoke to trusts Clinton (and it's not like I live in some hillbilly back woods town, I'm pretty middle of the road with plenty of friends on every position of the spectrum)

Trump cooked his goose when it comes to the Hispanic vote, that may end up being the prorverbial nail in the coffin for him when all is said and done

(and Cruz, I agree about him Sass
I am religious, I go to church every week, I am a Christian, I want a leader who believes in God, but I do NOT want a "religious" president, Cruz seemed too much a bible thumper for me. That may or may not be right but that's how he rubbed off on me and he did scare me away.

tom

I fully understand the partisan stuff, but what I find quite often is the Conservatives seem to at least notice the problems on their side of the fence

hard not to.

I actually get the feeling that he's nowhere near so religious as he makes out to be. I may be wrong, but it comes across as an affectation designed to secure votes.

I agree with Sass on Cruz with regard to religion. I think Cruz is completely fake, will say or do anything to further his political career. Could even be an atheist laughing about the rubes that buy into his act. I always wondered whether GW's religion beliefs were sincere or just a local custom adopted by a Northern blue-blood to fit in with Texans (a smarter adaptation than his Dad eating pork rinds and throwing horseshoes). I just could never tell with GW...it seemed sincere (though his famous smirk might indicate otherwise), but if you think about a Connecticut blue--blood becoming an evangelical Christian it seems pretty unlikely. In any case, Cruz can't pull it off. I was rooting for Trump to beat him. Thankfully, Republican voters saw through him for the most part. He's a scary guy.

Poll shows Trump and Hillary about even...

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0Y21TN

JimHackerMP wrote:

His audience is middle class and working class whites. He seems to be doing well with them--for reasons I cannot explain--it could be that he's the nearest thing to a Kardashian ever to run.

Spoken like a true Cruz supporter, if I haven't missed my guess? He seems more right up your alley than Trump, to be sure.

Actually, I voted for Rubio.

I was more against Trump than I was for Cruz. Cruz is right on policy (for me) and wrong on tone. Rubio would have been the nominee, I think, if not for the debacle that is Trump.

Tom: about people not caring about Trump's foibles: it's the old "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" principle. He's not the GOP "establishment" that some Republicans have come to loath. For whatever his faults may be--and they are many--as a candidate, people are going to vote for him who are tired of the GOP establishment. That's why Cruz lost.

Meh, Cruz is not establishment at all. He called McConnell a liar on the Senate floor. If he was establishment, he would have had a lot more endorsements.

As for his religious beliefs, it is mostly atheists who were "afraid" of him. If you know anything about Cruz, he is a Constitutionalist--right down the line. His own belief system, and his life's work, center around protecting the Bill of Rights, which prohibits the State from establishing a religion. He would not do that.

He was a bad candidate because he's not: 1) attractive; 2) happy--even when he called himself "a happy warrior" he had a frown on his face; 3) glib--he's articulate to an extent (and very quick. Remember how he rattled off the first 5 or 6 questions and to whom they were asked at one debate?), but he has too many 'uh" type of pauses; 4) in tune with the electorate. They wanted a lynching; Cruz wanted to preach about conservatism.

Trump is the nominee because: 1) people believe he can't be bought (which I think is garbage); 2) people feel like they know him from his years on TV and so don't care when he makes a gaffe or ridiculous statement or takes an outrageous action; 3) he models their anger and fear; 4) he is short on policy, except things that appeal to the anger and fear of the electorate.

freeman3 wrote:Poll shows Trump and Hillary about even...

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0Y21TN

Isn't rickyp supposed to swoop in with an "amen" right now? After all, the polls are all that matter!

Who knows? Do the polls mean anything at all right now? Well, maybe more than they usually do because both candidates are so high-profile. Almost everyone knows who they are.

I could see this going Trump's way. However, I still would make Hillary a pretty heavy favorite. Trump has alienated so many people his only hope is to get Clinton voters to stay home. On the other hand, given the anti-establishment mood of the country (see Sanders, Bernie), maybe it won't be so hard to convince them to stay home. She's not exactly a movement politician.

The way the country is polarized right now I think you can count on a close election almost no matter who gets nominated; Democrats will vote for the Democratic nominee, Republucans will vote for the Republican nominee and independents will mostly vote for the party they lean towards. There are some swing voters but it's not clear who will get those.

Probably going to come down to turnout. Will young voters who like Sanders vote for Hillary? Will black voters come out to vote for Hillary to preserve Obama's legacy? Will women (particularly young women) come out to vote for Hillary? Will some Republican voters not vote or vote for a third party?

The only thing I would predict is that it will be a close election and that women will get more excited about Hillary becoming president when it gets closer to the election. They may not like Hillary very much right now (as Tom notes) but I think when it gets closer to the election the fact that she would become the first women president is something they will find to be very important.

freeman3 wrote:They may not like Hillary very much right now (as Tom notes) but I think when it gets closer to the election the fact that she would become the first women president is something they will find to be very important.

That might be true, but it's a pretty horrific way to choose for whom to vote.