Yes, but by definition, 50% of the two major parties, and 100% of all other parties fail in that regard.

Isn't the objective of the primary system to nominate a candidate that can win election in the general?

rickyp wrote:danivon

Yes, but by definition, 50% of the two major parties, and 100% of all other parties fail in that regard.

Leaving aside the advantages built in for the established duopoly, and the systemic hurdles thrown in the path of third parties...
Losing constantly or badly is going to cause reflection and usually generates change.
The GOP in their last failure with Romney, spent a great deal of time trying to figure out why. (Unfortunately they've ignored all of the recommendations their "Growth and Opportunity Project" produced).
If Trump is as big as disaster as many predict, that would three losses in a row and the third "YUGE"...
The team GOP would be on a long losing streak...
There could be a lot of other culprits to blame and lots of dross to sort through... But they couldn't go far wrong by making serious changes to their primary system.

Doctor Fate wrote:Open primaries are a terrible idea. It permits people of no particular ideology to pick a candidate like Trump.

danivon wrote:But still, I think the Democrats have a bigger credibility issue with their primaries.

Doctor Fate wrote:

danivon wrote:But still, I think the Democrats have a bigger credibility issue with their primaries.

True, the super-delegate situation is ridiculous.

That said, I think we will see a lot of changes to the GOP process. Thanks to the idiot, um, I mean Trump.

danivon wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:

danivon wrote:But still, I think the Democrats have a bigger credibility issue with their primaries.

True, the super-delegate situation is ridiculous.

That said, I think we will see a lot of changes to the GOP process. Thanks to the idiot, um, I mean Trump.

And when that happens, another set of unintended consequences c ok uld fall out.

The Republicans have a problem that goes beyond Trump and Primary difficulties. Those are symptoms.

Cruz has all the right positions

The most favorable reading of Cruz’s proposals for immigration reform, military spending, tax reform and other changes in the way Washington operates would result in an addition of $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. At the other end of the spectrum, the most skeptical reading of his plans would result in the addition of $21 trillion to the debt.

The first problem with Cruz's tax plan is that it will exacerbate inequality. Billionaires are expected to benefit the most from Cruz's tax policies. Again, the Tax Foundation's analysis shows that the top one percent will see a 29.6% increase in their after tax gross income, if the plan is implemented. Millionaires will also not be too badly off either with a 17.4% increase in after tax income. In contrast, income for the bottom decile (or, 10 percent) will rise by a measly 4.3%. Similarly, the middle class will see an average of 2.7% rise in income.

Clinton leads Trump by 26 points among women in CNN's poll — more than double the margin President Obama won the group by in 2012.
In a February Washington Post/Univision poll, the last major survey of Hispanic voters, Clinton led by 73%-16% — more than 10 points better than Obama’s already-dominant performance with Latino voters over Mitt Romney in 2012.
Those numbers hold up in key swing states, according to a smattering of recent polling. Clinton led Trump by 13 points in a recent Florida poll, and by 19 points in swing-state New Hampshire.
Clinton had a 42%-35% edge over Trump in a recent survey of Republican-leaning Arizona. She was up by 15 points in Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania. Clinton held by a narrower 3-point margin in Ohio and tied Trump in Republican-leaning North Carolina, according to recent surveys

rickyp wrote:Fate

Cruz has all the right positions

Yes his notion of returning to the Gold Standard is a peach.
His economic plan is so solid.

On the other hand, Trump has no real policies. He's depending on the percentage of people who beleive in magic.

But you can't fool all the people....

Clinton leads Trump by 26 points among women in CNN's poll — more than double the margin President Obama won the group by in 2012.
In a February Washington Post/Univision poll, the last major survey of Hispanic voters, Clinton led by 73%-16% — more than 10 points better than Obama’s already-dominant performance with Latino voters over Mitt Romney in 2012.
Those numbers hold up in key swing states, according to a smattering of recent polling. Clinton led Trump by 13 points in a recent Florida poll, and by 19 points in swing-state New Hampshire.
Clinton had a 42%-35% edge over Trump in a recent survey of Republican-leaning Arizona. She was up by 15 points in Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania. Clinton held by a narrower 3-point margin in Ohio and tied Trump in Republican-leaning North Carolina, according to recent surveys

.
And she's unpopular.

Buckle up for the next six months: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are effectively tied in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday.
With voters split along lines of gender, race and age, the presumptive Republican nominee and the likely Democratic nominee appear poised for tight battles in those states, though Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders performs better against Trump than Clinton does and is also seen more favorably by voters in all three states. No presidential candidate has won an election since 1960 without winning at least two of the three states.
Story Continued Below
In Florida, Clinton leads Trump, 43 percent to 42 percent, while Sanders earned 44 percent to Trump's 42 percent. While Clinton holds a 13-point advantage among Florida women — 48 percent to 35 percent — Trump’s lead among men is equally large, at 49 percent to 36 percent. Independent Florida voters are split, 39 percent to 39 percent, while along racial lines, white voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate 52 percent to 33 percent. Among nonwhite voters, 63 percent to 20 percent said they would vote for the Democrat. Clinton’s favorability in Florida is a net negative 20 points (37 percent to 57 percent), though Trump earned the same numbers. For Sanders, 43 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him, 41 percent unfavorable and 14 percent said they did not know enough to have an opinion.
In Ohio, registered voters preferred Trump to Clinton, 43 percent to 39 percent, while Sanders edged Trump 43 percent to 41 percent. Trump leads among men in Ohio, 51 percent to 36 percent, while women prefer Clinton in the state 43 percent to 36 percent. While 49 percent to 32 percent of white voters go for the Republican candidate, a whopping 76 percent to 14 percent of nonwhite voters said they will go for the Democratic candidate. Among voters ages 18 to 34, Clinton leads 43 percent to 39 percent, while voters older than 65 preferred Trump 46 percent to 40 percent. Among independents, 40 percent said they would back Trump and 37 percent would go for Clinton.
In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads 43 percent to 42 percent, mirroring the gender and racial gaps in the other swing states. Among women, Clinton leads 51 percent to 32 percent, while Trump leads with men 54 percent to 33 percent. Clinton holds a 7-point lead among voters ages 18 to 34 (49 percent to 42 percent), while Trump commands the same level of support among voters 65 and older. White voters said they would support the Republican candidate 48 percent to 37 percent, while nonwhite voters said they would support the Democrat, 74 percent to 14 percent.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/t ... z48MMF4m5i
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I'd suggest it's too early, but if you want to go by polls, it's looking pretty even.

2012. CNN’s exit polls found that “93 percent of African-Americans, 71 percent of Hispanics and 73 percent of Asians supported Obama over Romney.

Most strikingly, the report confirms earlier analyses that a higher percentage of black voters hit the polls than whites for the first time in an American presidential election. Defying various attempts by the GOP to suppress their voice, 66.2 percent of eligible black voters turned out last November, compared with 64.1 percent of whites. In addition, Hispanics and Asians also turned out at a higher rate in 2012, with about 1.4 million and 555,000 more voters, respectively.

The truth is — with some notable exceptions — winning the national popular vote typically means winning the presidency; the Electoral College matters only in very close elections, and most of the time not even then.

Will Trump be met with enthusiastic support? About 10% of republicans have indcated they refuse to vote for him.

I did a quick check