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Post 25 Mar 2016, 8:40 am

We have seen some pretty bad attacks in Europe over the past decade or so. But are we at greater danger than before?

If you measure by deaths from terrorism, then no. The 70s and 80s were far worse.

https://www.statista.com/chart/4093/peo ... ince-1970/

This shows deaths from terrorism from 1970 to last year in Western Europe. What it shows is that before the 1990s, the rates were much higher. After 2001, there are two trends - an underlying low rate of less than 25 deaths per year, punctuated by a low number of "spectaculars" - Madrid, London, Oslo/Utoya, Paris.

These also happened before that time - the events shown on the graph are the Munich Olympic hostage taking by Palestinians, the 1980 bombings in Bologna and Munich by neo-fascists, and Lockerbie which we think was Libya.

What is not brought out are the 1974 Birmingham pub bombings, which killed 19, the 1979 Warrenpoint ambush which killed 18 (and was the same day as Lord Mountbatten and three others were killed with a bomb), or the 1998 Omagh bombing which killed 29. All of those were carried out by the Provisional IRA or a derived group.

The high figures for United Kingdom are (aside from Lockerbie and 7/7/2005) mainly due to the "Troubles", which have killed over 3,000 people in Northern Ireland and mainland Britain, and carried out by both Republicans and Loyalists.

Neither are significant ETA attacks highlighted, such as the 1987 Hipercor bombing in Barcelona which killed 21. Between them and the far right reactionary groups, over 900 people were killed.

We have had it worse than we do now.
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 10:08 am

On another thread, the question was posed:

Doctor Fate wrote:"Furthermore, the number of terror attacks in Ireland over the past decade compared to the attacks in the rest of Europe by jihadists . . . which one is greater?"


A good question. Here is a link to the activity of the "Real IRA" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... my_actions

Going back to 10 years ago today, and excluding issuing of threats, actions by others, hoaxes, and "punishments" of drug dealers or sex offenders and retaliations for attacks by gangsters on them, I count:

2006 (post-March): 4 events
2007: 5 events
2008: 5 events
2009: 13 events
2010: 14 events
2011: 8 events
2012: 2 events
2013: 5 events
2014: 9 events
2015: 6 events
2016 (to date): 1 event

That's 72. Again, they also call in hoaxes to cause disruption, and have an ongoing war against Dublin gangsters, which if you included in would take it to over 100. Also, some of those "events" included multiple actual individual attacks ("a number of firebombs")

Oh, but the Real IRA are not the only Republican terrorist group operating in this period. There was also the Continuity IRA. Again excluding hoaxes, threats, "punishment" and internecine attacks... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronolog ... my_actions

2006 (post-March): 2 events
2007: 1 events
2008: 6 events
2009: 5 events
2010: 12 events
2011: 2 events
2012: 0 events
2013: 2 events
2014: 1 event
2015: 0 events
2016 (to date): 0 events

Total 31

But there's more. There is also Óglaigh na hÉireann, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%93gla ... r_group%29 who split from the RIRA and became active in 2009

2009: 3 events
2010: 6 events
2011: 2 events
2012: 8 events
2013: 11 events
2014: 0 events
2015: 1 event
2016 (to date): 0 events

Total 31

That's 134 Irish Republican terror attacks.

Of course, it's not just Republicans, there are also the Loyalists. A UDA member attacked Stormont in November 2006 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... tions#2006.

And there are the more violent Ulster Volunteer Force https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_ ... tions#2007

2011: events over three days
2012: 1 event and a major riot
2013: 11 events

the Orange Volunteers

2008: 3 events
2009: 3 events

So we are now well over 150 attacks in the last ten years.

How many terrorist attacks in Europe by Muslims in the same period?
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 10:10 am

Since you have looked at the numbers already, how many dead in the IRA attacks?
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 11:01 am

bbauska wrote:Since you have looked at the numbers already, how many dead in the IRA attacks?

That was not the question I was looking at, so I would have to look again, but I think it would be in the region of a few dozen. As the link on the first post shows, Western Europe sees fewer fatalities overall than before the turn of the century.

For the meantime, here is a page that looks at Terror attacks across the EU, and shows that by number of attacks, the perpetrators are more likely to be "separatists" (which would include the IRA and ETA) than any other source. Not jihadi, which would be a subset of the "religious"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism ... pean_Union
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 11:09 am

danivon wrote:So we are now well over 150 attacks in the last ten years.

How many terrorist attacks in Europe by Muslims in the same period?


Bull.

http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-terror ... 4-Nov2015/

According to the report, there were 30 attacks in Ireland, but no deaths were recorded in these attacks. The highest number of incidents was in the UK. However, none of these 102 attacks resulted in fatalities. The majority of these attacks occurred in Northern Ireland and involved the New IRA.

Northern Ireland has also influenced European statistics. The region had the lowest ratio of deaths per attack because of the 79 incidents in Northern Ireland which had no casualties last year.


So, how does that compare with deaths in Europe by Muslims?

Sorry, but arson or whatever is NOT the same as suicide attacks.
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 2:36 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:
danivon wrote:So we are now well over 150 attacks in the last ten years.

How many terrorist attacks in Europe by Muslims in the same period?


Bull.

http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-terror ... 4-Nov2015/

According to the report, there were 30 attacks in Ireland, but no deaths were recorded in these attacks. The highest number of incidents was in the UK. However, none of these 102 attacks resulted in fatalities. The majority of these attacks occurred in Northern Ireland and involved the New IRA.

Northern Ireland has also influenced European statistics. The region had the lowest ratio of deaths per attack because of the 79 incidents in Northern Ireland which had no casualties last year.


So, how does that compare with deaths in Europe by Muslims?

Sorry, but arson or whatever is NOT the same as suicide attacks.
You did not ask to compare deaths, but attacks. I quoted your exact words. You want to say you didn't mean what you said?

Also your linked article only considers one year. Not the whole decade that your question set as a parameter. But that shows - with a total of 132 attacks, that the successor groups to the IRA and their opposites in Loyalist groups are more active than my figures showed

And by Ireland, I took it to mean the island, made up of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland (part of the UK). Irish terrorists since the 1960s were always more active in Northern Ireland than south of the border, but operated in both (as well as forays into the UK).

No, arson is not the same as a suicide attack. But it is still terrorism. And it can kill. As well as arson (on homes) there has been bomb-placing, mortar fire, and gunshots.

Thankfully, we are not seeing the levels of death that we saw when the Troubles were at their height. Those years saw more deaths from terrorism in Western Europe than in the period of jihadi violence (post 9-11).

Anyway. How many attacks by jihadists in Europe in the last decade?
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 3:11 pm

danivon wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:
danivon wrote:So we are now well over 150 attacks in the last ten years.

How many terrorist attacks in Europe by Muslims in the same period?


Bull.

http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-terror ... 4-Nov2015/

According to the report, there were 30 attacks in Ireland, but no deaths were recorded in these attacks. The highest number of incidents was in the UK. However, none of these 102 attacks resulted in fatalities. The majority of these attacks occurred in Northern Ireland and involved the New IRA.

Northern Ireland has also influenced European statistics. The region had the lowest ratio of deaths per attack because of the 79 incidents in Northern Ireland which had no casualties last year.


So, how does that compare with deaths in Europe by Muslims?

Sorry, but arson or whatever is NOT the same as suicide attacks.
You did not ask to compare deaths, but attacks. I quoted your exact words. You want to say you didn't mean what you said?


"Attack" can be redefined--as you have done. "Deaths" can't be.

No, arson is not the same as a suicide attack. But it is still terrorism. And it can kill. As well as arson (on homes) there has been bomb-placing, mortar fire, and gunshots.


Sure, it can cause death, but it may not.

Yes, these are attacks. But, let me cut to the chase: if you had to be at a terror event, would you rather have it be a group that has not killed in years or one whose entire purpose is murder?

Yeah, that's what I thought.
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 3:49 pm

That is exactly why I asked that. One is hard data, and the other can be manipulated.
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 5:30 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:"Attack" can be redefined--as you have done. "Deaths" can't be.
I did not "redefine" anything. I looked at a wikipedia article and excluded hoaxes and threats as well as internecine and vigilante actions.

No, arson is not the same as a suicide attack. But it is still terrorism. And it can kill. As well as arson (on homes) there has been bomb-placing, mortar fire, and gunshots.


Sure, it can cause death, but it may not. [/quote]but it still can. Mind you, as most of the targets of the Irish terrorists are cops, perhaps you don't consider that to be terrorism either?

Yes, these are attacks. But, let me cut to the chase: if you had to be at a terror event, would you rather have it be a group that has not killed in years or one whose entire purpose is murder?

Yeah, that's what I thought.
I'd want to be at neither just as much, frankly.

As for "not killed in years", the Continuity IRA killed last month. I didn't count it because it was part of their war on drugs gangs. But what happened was that gunmen disguised as police burst into a weigh-in for a boxing match and opened fire.
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 5:31 pm

bbauska wrote:That is exactly why I asked that. One is hard data, and the other can be manipulated.
And yet, I was answering the original question. Take it up with the guy who asked it and suddenly doesn't like the answer.
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 5:32 pm

I was looking at the figures for Europe when attacks were high in the 70s and 80sS from Owen's link. Most of the casualties appear to be from IRA or Protestant groups in Northern Ireland or from Basque Separatists in Spain. Those groups had at least some plausible political goals they were fighting for. The attacks by jihadists appear to be basically nihilistic without any real rational political goal. I suppose you could argue that the attacks are designed to take pressure off of ISIS so that a Caliphate could be formed--I just can't see that as being rational. The link also wondered why Europeans were so scared as compared to 30-40 years ago when attacks were more common. I suspect one reason is that while the attacks may be few in number the intensity level is very high, with attacks that are carried out being extremely lethal. And as the evidence of some planning to go after a nuclear facility indicates, there does not seem to be any restraint on what the jihadists are willing to do.
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Post 25 Mar 2016, 5:39 pm

danivon wrote:
Yes, these are attacks. But, let me cut to the chase: if you had to be at a terror event, would you rather have it be a group that has not killed in years or one whose entire purpose is murder?

Yeah, that's what I thought.
I'd want to be at neither just as much, frankly.


Yes, I anticipated you would attempt subterfuge. I didn't give you a choice of NOT being at either. I asked which one and you ducked. Why?

Oh, because the truth is obvious.

You know the IRA is not the equal of Islamic terror, but to admit that would violate your precious tenets of multicultural garbage.
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Post 26 Mar 2016, 1:36 am

No, DF, because I don't think it makes a difference If I am killed by one or the other. Again, stop telling me what you think I think, you are not a mind-reader.
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Post 26 Mar 2016, 4:37 am

Freeman, I take the point, but as an organisation or movement transitions from "resistance" to "terrorism", brakes start to come off and they become more about the method than the goal. When the IRA exploded a bomb on the shopping street in Warrington and killed two small children, did they really think that would advance the cause of a united Ireland?

And the same cell that committed the 1993 Warrington bombing also were active at power stations. Not sure if any were nuclear.

Ultimately, once people allow their ideology and their "belonging" to a group or movement to justify terrorism, the ideology becomes less important than the terrorism.

I get that to many Americans the myth of the Irish struggle is romantic. And I would agree that the Catholic Irish minority in Northern Ireland were suppressed by the Protestant Loyalist majority. But we should never excuse terrorism. And murder is murder, regardless of the motive.
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Post 26 Mar 2016, 6:26 am

It's good to get perspective, but you also have to distinguish between attacks against the policy of a particular western country (England in Ireland or Israel in the case of the Munich Olympics) vs. an attack that's targeting all of the West as we have recently seen.

I'm with Freeman; there is no negotiation ... there is no compromise ... there is nothing in the philosophy of ISIS that can allow you to say "on the other hand". This is war to the death, ours or theirs. We win it now, or we win it later. I suggest now.