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Post 14 Jan 2016, 11:03 am

Ray Jay wrote:Ricky:
I think Bernie has a chance. And a better chance than Trump.
Because Bernie doesn't seem to have a ceiling with Democrats. Trump does.
Today I think Hillary will win. Among Republicans, Cruz. But things change...


That seems reasonable to me. PredictWise which consolidates betting exchanges has it as:

Clinton 82%
Sanders 17%

For the Republicans:

Rubio 33%
Trump 22%
Cruz 22%

for the party nods.


This article lays out the case for Bernie pretty well. https://revolutionaryds.wordpress.com/2 ... heres-how/

That said, Iowa and New Hampshire are rarely predictable. If Sanders wins both, it will put a lot of pressure on Hillary. Goldman-Sachs might start getting nervous and jump to the GOP.

Even so, in a general, can anyone imagine a 75 year-old (on election day) independent democratic socialist getting the nomination and looking good on the national debate stage? I can't. The DNC will go into full-on panic mode if it looks like Bernie is heading to the nomination. He makes George McGovern look electable.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 1:43 pm

Fate
Goldman-Sachs might start getting nervous and jump to the GOP

Sure. They'll support someone who wants to return to the Gold Standard. (Cruz does) Because that's what modern financial markets want.

Fate
Even so, in a general, can anyone imagine a 75 year-old (on election day) independent democratic socialist getting the nomination and looking good on the national debate stage? I can't. The DNC will go into full-on panic mode if it looks like Bernie is heading to the nomination. He makes George McGovern look electable

I've seen you write all kinds of things about "that'll never happen" here in the US . Then they do.

But as for "electable". In the first two states all of the candidates were rated positive or negative in a poll by NBC-Marist. Sanders wins. The only one with a positive rating. Trump loses.


The popularity — or unpopularity — contest

But among all registered voters in these two presidential battleground states, the NBC-Marist polls finds that almost all of the major presidential candidates are unpopular - and that's especially true for Clinton.

The favorable/unfavorable scores in Iowa among all registered voters:
Sanders +3 (30 percent/27 percent)
Rubio -1 (31 percent/32 percent)
Walker -1 (30 percent/31 percent)
Bush -12 (34 percent/46 percent)
Clinton -19 (37/56 percent)
Trump -28 (32 percent/60 percent)

Notably, Clinton's fav/unfav score in Iowa among all registered voters mirrors what a recent Quinnipiac poll of the state found .

The favorable/unfavorable scores in New Hampshire:

Sanders +12 (41 percent/29 percent)
Bush -5 (40 percent/45 percent)
Walker -6 (28 percent/34 percent)
Rubio -6 (28 percent/34 percent)
Clinton -20 (37 percent/57 percent)
Trump -40 (27 percent/67 percent)

This unfavorability rating for Trump is his ceiling.
The favorable rating for Sanders denotes his growth potential. As he presents his ideas, he seems to be gaining momentum As did Obama. So the grumpy old guy with the down to earth explanations of how things could be better for working people and the middle class is coming off as the most authentic.
And perhaps that's enough.
We'll see.
In a head to head debate with most of the republicans , he'll come across as authentic and what passes for policy in the republican debates will be revealed as paper thin rhetoric seldom grounded in reality.And he'll disarm some of the sensible republican policies simply by agreeing with them. (Thinking of e-verify and tighter border control) I think that is his most interesting quality.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 1:53 pm

How recent is that poll ? Walker dropped out ages ago.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 2:08 pm

RickyP,
Since the Democratic nominee and the head of the DNC cannot identify differences between a Socialist and a Democrat, could you?

Bernie has been a major voice on this matter for years. And has policies that attack the issue.
- Medicare for all
- College tuition .
- breaking up the banks
- taxation of all income and higher taxes for the wealthy and corporations


Your post stating these items that Mr. Sanders likes are (I assume) the same positions as Mrs. Clinton. What makes a difference politically between a Socialist and Democrat? If they are the same, then say so.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 2:11 pm

Come talk politics with most of the people who live in my home town and you'll soon see the difference between a socialist and a Democrat.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 3:26 pm

rickyp wrote:Fate
Goldman-Sachs might start getting nervous and jump to the GOP

Sure. They'll support someone who wants to return to the Gold Standard. (Cruz does) Because that's what modern financial markets want.


They ain't going to support Bernie. I just heard one of his ads: "expand Social Security."

WHAT??? Expand it to WHOM? There are already a ton of people on it for whom it was not designed.

He's going to break up the big banks. Hmm. Yeah, Goldman-Sachs will love that.

Fate
Even so, in a general, can anyone imagine a 75 year-old (on election day) independent democratic socialist getting the nomination and looking good on the national debate stage? I can't. The DNC will go into full-on panic mode if it looks like Bernie is heading to the nomination. He makes George McGovern look electable

I've seen you write all kinds of things about "that'll never happen" here in the US . Then they do.


Okay, no one has EVER been elected to their first term in office at age 75. In fact, the oldest was Reagan at 69. So, he was younger by two years at his SECOND inauguration.

If you think the dynamic Bernie will be the first, bet me. Of course, you don't really believe that. You just enjoy being a gadfly.

But as for "electable". In the first two states all of the candidates were rated positive or negative in a poll by NBC-Marist. Sanders wins. The only one with a positive rating. Trump loses.


Oh please. That kind of a poll at this point is only useful (at all) in Democratic circles.

Sanders is going to be easy to destroy.

Q: Senator Sanders how will you pay for all of these new entitlements?

A: I'll tax the vestigial organs of every living American, and turn the 1% upside down until they have no more money.

Q: How much money will that raise?

A: About 1/10th of what I'm proposing to spend.

In other words, his answers are garbage. He has said he will make sure the 1% "pay their fair share." If he taxed them at 100%, they still couldn't pay for what he's proposing.

In a head to head debate with most of the republicans , he'll come across as authentic and what passes for policy in the republican debates will be revealed as paper thin rhetoric seldom grounded in reality.And he'll disarm some of the sensible republican policies simply by agreeing with them. (Thinking of e-verify and tighter border control) I think that is his most interesting quality.


I'll give you 5:1 he will not be elected President. If you feel the Bern, bet him.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 3:57 pm

Sassenach wrote:Come talk politics with most of the people who live in my home town and you'll soon see the difference between a socialist and a Democrat.


Which is why when/if Bernie is the nominee he will get pasted. He's not going to be mealy-mouthed about it. As he gets more specific, his ceiling will settle in at about 38% of the electorate. He won't win.

According to the WSJ (behind the pay-wall), Sanders' proposals will cost $18T over 10 years.

Um.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 4:18 pm

bbauska
Your post stating these items that Mr. Sanders likes are (I assume) the same positions as Mrs. Clinton


I believe there are significant differences between Hillary and Bernie.
Hillary doesn't think Medicare for all is possible. Bernie does.
Hillary wouldn't break up the banks to where they would not be too big to fail. Bernie would.
There are probably others.

Interestingly the bail out of the banks was called socializing the risk. And Bernie wants to ensure that that doesn't happen again. Every other candidate seems willing to accept that risk again. Hillary will regulate better, she says.
Republicans want to deregulate.... which would place the world at the mercy of deregulated financial products like CDS's again.
Roosevelt broke up Standard oil for the good of capitalism. I think he was a hero for that... Bernies probably right about this.
(Again I encourage you to get out of the house and go see the BIG SHORT. If it doesn't make you think again about the concept of deregulation.... or allowing instituyions to become too big....)
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 4:29 pm

rickyp wrote:Interestingly the bail out of the banks was called socializing the risk. And Bernie wants to ensure that that doesn't happen again. Every other candidate seems willing to accept that risk again. Hillary will regulate better, she says.
Republicans want to deregulate.... which would place the world at the mercy of deregulated financial products like CDS's again.


I don't think this is true. Please prove Republicans want to deregulate.

Btw, repealing Dodd-Frank is not "deregulation." Dodd-Frank made "too big to fail" the law of the land.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 4:44 pm

Go Bernie Go!

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/01/be ... -everyone/

He's clueless.
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Post 14 Jan 2016, 6:03 pm

rickyp wrote:bbauska
Your post stating these items that Mr. Sanders likes are (I assume) the same positions as Mrs. Clinton


I believe there are significant differences between Hillary and Bernie.
Hillary doesn't think Medicare for all is possible. Bernie does.
Hillary wouldn't break up the banks to where they would not be too big to fail. Bernie would.
There are probably others.

Interestingly the bail out of the banks was called socializing the risk. And Bernie wants to ensure that that doesn't happen again. Every other candidate seems willing to accept that risk again. Hillary will regulate better, she says.
Republicans want to deregulate.... which would place the world at the mercy of deregulated financial products like CDS's again.
Roosevelt broke up Standard oil for the good of capitalism. I think he was a hero for that... Bernies probably right about this.
(Again I encourage you to get out of the house and go see the BIG SHORT. If it doesn't make you think again about the concept of deregulation.... or allowing instituyions to become too big....)


This is not the question. You gave me reasons the Mrs. Clinton is different from Mr. Sanders.

I asked what the difference was between a Democrat and a Socialist.
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Post 15 Jan 2016, 8:06 am

Fate, I will take your bet concerning the Berndog. I do so because I feel badly about our prior bet concerning Trump. And at least this bet is a little more interesting and you may have a chance.

If the Democrats play their cards carefully, they go with the Berndog. Why?

Because they know that if they put the criminal up against Trump, he will slaughter her. Surely you see this right?

There is no way a yet to be indicted candidate has an ice cube's chance in hell to beat Trump in a debate. He will shred her. And he won't even need to be mean about it. He will do so convincingly and in stride. Trump will simply outline her embarrassing track record as a politician. He will point out the fact that in no way shape or form has this woman been influential in our world. In no way shape or form has she contributed to a safer world. In fact it will be too easy. The Democratic Party knows this all too well. Even now the Dems are beginning to distance themselves from her. The writing is on the wall and the swing voters are finally coming to terms with that.

Pause....cue reminder.....all one needs to win the presidency is the American swing voter.

The Democrats do not have a choice at this point. They must go with Sanders in order to have a chance. Socialist or not, the man has credibility. He comes across as reasonable. He has the presidential swagger I've tried to describe in earlier posts that is needed in a candidate. He can sell. And he can sell as good or better than Trump.

The key for Berndog is that he is the antithesis of Trump. He is the other extreme. He will force the swing voter to really grapple with his/her choice.

Do I go with someone who is clearly a go getter, who has a business track record of proven success and getting things done? Do I go with a pragmatist who really comes from outside the political arena? Am I really so sick and tired of politicians that I am willing to, at the very least, try Trump as a 4 year experiment in the hopes of upsetting the Washington applecart? Will his lack of political experience only frustrate him in the end? Will he really be able to successfully maneuver in DC? or simply worsen the already venomous partisan atmosphere?

or

Do I go with someone who comes across as older, wiser, not prone to juvenile temper tantrums, someone who can represent my country to the world with dignity? Someone with political experience who is also a pragmatist but a voice for the underdog and the poor? Someone who desires to level the playing field and create a more balanced and equitable dynamic for those who are not a part of the 1%?

All of which begs the question....what do I believe is needed most for the country/world at this moment in history?

It's going to be close and the Dems know it. That's why they will go with bdog.

Doing anything other than this will gum up any chance they might have to take Trump on and win.

Fate, we now enjoy two bets.
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Post 15 Jan 2016, 12:34 pm

dag hammarsjkold wrote:Fate, I will take your bet concerning the Berndog. I do so because I feel badly about our prior bet concerning Trump. And at least this bet is a little more interesting and you may have a chance.


Yeah, don't count your Trump before it's played.

If the Democrats play their cards carefully, they go with the Berndog. Why?

Because they know that if they put the criminal up against Trump, he will slaughter her. Surely you see this right?


I'm not so sure. Many, many Democrats don't care. Many women just want to vote for the first female President. Unless this becomes the scandal it should be, I'm not sure.

But, Bernie? It's all a matter of hammering him on how to pay for his Santa Clausness. When people see the bill--or see his inability to present a coherent plan to pay for it--he's smoked.

Pause....cue reminder.....all one needs to win the presidency is the American swing voter.


True . . . and many love the idea of a woman.

The Democrats do not have a choice at this point. They must go with Sanders in order to have a chance. Socialist or not, the man has credibility. He comes across as reasonable. He has the presidential swagger I've tried to describe in earlier posts that is needed in a candidate. He can sell. And he can sell as good or better than Trump.


I'm happy for you. But, you're bonkers. When was the last time a non-Democrat won their nomination?

The key for Berndog is that he is the antithesis of Trump. He is the other extreme. He will force the swing voter to really grapple with his/her choice.


Not at all. Trump is not all that conservative. He's basically promised universal medical insurance, which is something I wish would come up at the debates.

Do I go with someone who comes across as older, wiser, not prone to juvenile temper tantrums, someone who can represent my country to the world with dignity? Someone with political experience who is also a pragmatist but a voice for the underdog and the poor? Someone who desires to level the playing field and create a more balanced and equitable dynamic for those who are not a part of the 1%?


Wiser? He will continue Obama's foreign policy "successes." He will spend a lot more than Obama. He's promised free college, free healthcare, and more government largess.

How is he going to pay for it? Please, tell me.

All of which begs the question....what do I believe is needed most for the country/world at this moment in history?

It's going to be close and the Dems know it. That's why they will go with bdog.


If they want to keep power, they will quash the Clinton investigations. Hillary can be pardoned after the election as "a formality." She will play the "war on women" meme incessantly. Her one chance is to appeal to women and minorities, go negative and try to suppress the turnout.

Doing anything other than this will gum up any chance they might have to take Trump on and win.

Fate, we now enjoy two bets.


Trump won't be the nominee. Neither will Sanders.

Lo siento.
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Post 15 Jan 2016, 5:33 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:There is a worse President in American history, but he led the Confederacy.


May I please steal this line and use it as a personal signature?
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Post 15 Jan 2016, 5:41 pm

Archduke Russell John wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:There is a worse President in American history, but he led the Confederacy.


May I please steal this line and use it as a personal signature?


It would be my great joy to see it in circulation. :)