Archduke Russell John wrote:I disagree agree Steve. Just because a nominee is moderate doesn't mean he are going to run a timid campaign.

Maybe. Dole . . . firebrand? G. H. W. B. . . edgy campaign?

Anyone who does not go after Obama on a range of issues, including "leading from behind" (a phrase from a White House person to describe the current foreign policy) cannot win.

McCain was a different issue really. There wasn't really a lot to hit Obama with during the campaign.

I don't agree. "Spread the wealth." "Energy prices will necessarily skyrocket." More if you want them.

The issues were there. McCain wanted to run a "positive" campaign. Great. Except he made Palin look articulate. His decision to suspend his campaign and then . . . essentially do nothing, well, that sealed the deal. His wandering around during the one debate didn't help either.

Archduke Russell John wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote: especially if Trump makes headway or if Romney seems unable to get traction. I think Ryan, Christie, or even Jeb could feel forced to get in.

Ryan has no interest in running for President and neither does Christie.

Now. If the race develops as you suggest, they are missing a great opportunity.

I also think it is too soon for another Bush.

Probably, but I think he would win easily if nominated. He is not his brother. And, his wife and son will be major assets in peeling away Latino voters.

Trump is a joke and won't last past June.

I want to believe this. However, there is the matter of him speaking in plain language. In the short run, that wears well. Plus, he has a bigger war chest and more name ID than anyone else. That can't be discounted. There is no way, if he gets in, that he is out before the Florida primary--unless Jeb gets in.

I think the Republican nomination race is going to be between four candidates. Romney, Pawlenty, Daniels and Huntsman. I think Romeny drops out after 3rd place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire . . .

Romney won't finish second in NH. Furthermore, what if he finishes second in iowa and wins NH? If he can finish second in SC and win Florida, he's a lock. Don't forget--Nevada has a good Mormon population and borders Utah, where Romney saved Olympic bacon.

. . . and Daniels is out after a 3rd place finish in South Carolina. The fight will be between Pawlenty and Huntsman on Super Tuesday.

Daniels and Pawlenty are the quintessential polite Republicans. Competent, great records, and totally non-dynamic. Huntsman? I don't think he can outlast Trump. Obama's ambassador to China? The guy who loves Obama? The guy who supported cap and trade? If my choice was Huntsman or Trump, I'd vote for Trump.

So far, I think that is the field. I can't see Huckabee, Palin, or Giuliani getting in.

Well, there is Ron Paul. I think he may get 2x as many votes as last time.

Out of the guys you listed, I'm pulling for Romney. In fact, I've been meaning to write him a letter to offer a better explanation of Romneycare than he's given. If he can get out of the primary, he'll win.

Doctor Fate wrote:Romney won't finish second in NH. Furthermore, what if he finishes second in iowa and wins NH?

Well I have been reading the N.H. doesn't really like Romney and is looking for another candidate to support. I think that is Huntsman. He already has one of the biggest NH activists as a supporter. Wally Stickney, who was a major Romney supporter in 2008.

I also don't think Romeny finishes 2nd in Iowa.

Doctor Fate wrote: If he can finish second in SC and win Florida, he's a lock. Don't forget--Nevada has a good Mormon population and borders Utah, where Romney saved Olympic bacon.

And Huntsman is also a Mormon who actually lives in Utah, was governor of the state and is credited with basically saving it's economy.

. . . and Daniels is out after a 3rd place finish in South Carolina. The fight will be between Pawlenty and Huntsman on Super Tuesday.

Doctor Fate wrote:Daniels and Pawlenty are the quintessential polite Republicans. Competent, great records, and totally non-dynamic.

But this is what you need when you fight an unpopular incumbent. You want to keep the focus on him and keep the focus off themselves.

Doctor Fate wrote: Huntsman? I don't think he can outlast Trump. Obama's ambassador to China? The guy who loves Obama? The guy who supported cap and trade? If my choice was Huntsman or Trump, I'd vote for Trump.

I guarantee you Huntsman has the staying power if he decides to run. He has the Business cred (he's a billionaire that ran a major corporation), the executive cred, (former Governor), and the foreign policy cred (former Ambassador to Singapore under Bush) . All the things you just named aren't going to be negative selling points to the moderates that are going to be most influential the primaries this year.

Doctor Fate wrote:Out of the guys you listed, I'm pulling for Romney. In fact, I've been meaning to write him a letter to offer a better explanation of Romneycare than he's given. If he can get out of the primary, he'll win.

I haven't decided which one to support.

Archduke Russell John wrote:I also don't think Romney finishes 2nd in Iowa.

You might be right. That was just a hypothetical. Iowa tends to go very conservative.

And Huntsman is also a Mormon who actually lives in Utah, was governor of the state and is credited with basically saving it's economy.

But, he's got major baggage. Major. And, I think it is the self-made billionaire, and Jon is not that guy. I think his embrace of Obama and cap and trade will weigh him down.

Doctor Fate wrote:

Daniels and Pawlenty are the quintessential polite Republicans. Competent, great records, and totally non-dynamic.

But this is what you need when you fight an unpopular incumbent. You want to keep the focus on him and keep the focus off themselves.

Actually, I think it takes a certain dynamism. The reason? The press will relentlessly attack whoever runs against Obama, so his opponent will have to be able to forcefully respond and pivot back to Obama. No politician has done everything right. Therefore, his/her record will be scrutinized. The question is can one return to Obama's competency or will he/she be forced to constantly defend himself/herself.

All the things you just named aren't going to be negative selling points to the moderates that are going to be most influential the primaries this year.

I think fiscal conservatives will be most influential. True moderates will wait until the fall.

This poll cracks me up. Why? Because it says what I've been saying: true "swing voters" are "swing voters" because they don't know what is going on:

Still, in the USA TODAY poll, only 38% of Americans say Obama definitely was born in the USA, and 18% say he probably was. Fifteen percent say he probably was born in another country, and 9% say he definitely was born elsewhere

Republicans are inclined to say the president was born abroad by 43%-35%.

For what it’s worth, not everyone is convinced Trump was born in the USA either: 43% say he definitely was born here, and 20% say he probably was; 7% say he definitely or probably was born in another country. Nearly three in 10 say they don’t know enough to say.