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Post 01 Mar 2016, 9:59 am

bbauska wrote:
Sassenach wrote:Well I guess you could always vote for this third party candidate instead:

https://cthulhuforamerica.com/


Isn't it eerie that the logo for Cthulu looks very similar to the Obama logo?

https://www.google.com/search?q=obama+logo&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiSpvW28J_LAhUI4mMKHe13DNkQsAQIHA&biw=1366&bih=674

:winkgrin:

Not really. It was probably deliberate on the part of the Cthulu site authors, and let's face it US political logos all have to be red, white and blue and incorporate some elements of the flag.

Romney's double-R, and McCain's rip off of the frozen fries company clearly were not "Flaggy" enough.
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Post 01 Mar 2016, 11:18 am

danivon wrote:
bbauska wrote:
Sassenach wrote:Well I guess you could always vote for this third party candidate instead:

https://cthulhuforamerica.com/


Isn't it eerie that the logo for Cthulu looks very similar to the Obama logo?

https://www.google.com/search?q=obama+logo&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiSpvW28J_LAhUI4mMKHe13DNkQsAQIHA&biw=1366&bih=674

:winkgrin:

Not really. It was probably deliberate on the part of the Cthulu site authors, and let's face it US political logos all have to be red, white and blue and incorporate some elements of the flag.

Romney's double-R, and McCain's rip off of the frozen fries company clearly were not "Flaggy" enough.


Just having some Tuesday fun. We can't all be cranky about "Who to have a beer with".
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Post 01 Mar 2016, 11:27 am

It's a cleverly created spoof site actually. It even has stuff like this:

https://cthulhuforamerica.com/wp-conten ... 160216.pdf

As such I'm sure the similarity to Obama's logo is not coincidental.
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Post 01 Mar 2016, 12:32 pm

bbauska wrote:
danivon wrote:
bbauska wrote:
Sassenach wrote:Well I guess you could always vote for this third party candidate instead:

https://cthulhuforamerica.com/


Isn't it eerie that the logo for Cthulu looks very similar to the Obama logo?

https://www.google.com/search?q=obama+logo&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiSpvW28J_LAhUI4mMKHe13DNkQsAQIHA&biw=1366&bih=674

:winkgrin:

Not really. It was probably deliberate on the part of the Cthulu site authors, and let's face it US political logos all have to be red, white and blue and incorporate some elements of the flag.

Romney's double-R, and McCain's rip off of the frozen fries company clearly were not "Flaggy" enough.


Just having some Tuesday fun. We can't all be cranky about "Who to have a beer with".
So am I. To win you need a Flaggy Logo. And beerability. And of course sincerity - if you can fake that you've got it made ;-)
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Post 01 Mar 2016, 1:28 pm

danivon wrote:
bbauska wrote:
danivon wrote:
bbauska wrote:
Sassenach wrote:Well I guess you could always vote for this third party candidate instead:

https://cthulhuforamerica.com/


Isn't it eerie that the logo for Cthulu looks very similar to the Obama logo?

https://www.google.com/search?q=obama+logo&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiSpvW28J_LAhUI4mMKHe13DNkQsAQIHA&biw=1366&bih=674

:winkgrin:

Not really. It was probably deliberate on the part of the Cthulu site authors, and let's face it US political logos all have to be red, white and blue and incorporate some elements of the flag.

Romney's double-R, and McCain's rip off of the frozen fries company clearly were not "Flaggy" enough.


Just having some Tuesday fun. We can't all be cranky about "Who to have a beer with".
So am I. To win you need a Flaggy Logo. And beerability. And of course sincerity - if you can fake that you've got it made ;-)


You are on a roll today, Owen!
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Post 01 Mar 2016, 2:07 pm

danivon wrote: And of course sincerity - if you can fake that you've got it made ;-)


So far, no one is faking sincerity better than Trump.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 7:12 am

fate
So far, no one is faking sincerity better than Trump


You think he's faking sincerity? I think he's been very sincere about how he intends to operate...
He is what he is... and not what some voters imagine he is ...
For instance:

Asked about comments by House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) criticizing the mogul for equivocation when he was asked about David Duke and the Ku Klux Klan, the candidate offered a preview of the cooperation to come.
“Look, I don’t want to waste a lot of time," Trump said. "I’m going to get along great with Congress, OK? Paul Ryan, I don’t know him well, but I’m sure I’m going to get along great with him, and if I don’t? He’s gonna have to pay a big price, OK?



Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop- ... z41kqnt5au
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 7:38 am

The value of polling people on attitudes and learning from those polls.
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3065
ricky
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/n ... ad-n406766

A good quarter of republicans seem to be in lock step with his attitudes.towards everything and everybody

ray
It's an interesting poll. I've certainly been confounded by his popularity. It all seems to be based on his hitting the right emotions, but not on policy, because his policy ideas are not particularly conservative, perhaps with the exception of immigration.


The value of unsupported conjecture...
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3065
Fate
I think when it becomes clear Trump can't win, he'll exit. He won't waste his money on a purely quixotic venture. However, it will take some time for him to wake from his delusion


I think the signs for the genuine support within the Republican Party for Trumps' emotional but contradictory, racist, sexist, dishonest rhetoric were there long ago. The Tea Party was all about misplaced anger and irrational response...
You just had to be willing to accept that a large part of the republican base, and the most active primary voters, agreed with the incoherent message. And didn't really understand why it was incoherent. Or why it repels most of their fellow citizens.
Since no one appears to be dropping out, I think Drumpf is well on his way.... If Carson had dropped out before Super Tuesday the results seem to indicate that maybe one more state might have gone to Cruz.... Probably more if Kasich or Rubio had dropped out. But now, other than maybe Ohio, Drumpf looks like he'll do well enough that he's nailed the nomination.
Arizona should end the suspense entirely.

Google Donald Drumpf..... Turns out that was his families name a few generations ago.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 10:16 am

rickyp wrote:The value of polling people on attitudes and learning from those polls.
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3065
ricky
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/n ... ad-n406766

A good quarter of republicans seem to be in lock step with his attitudes.towards everything and everybody

ray
It's an interesting poll. I've certainly been confounded by his popularity. It all seems to be based on his hitting the right emotions, but not on policy, because his policy ideas are not particularly conservative, perhaps with the exception of immigration.


With all due respect, this is more jackassery. You take half the info and proclaim yourself correct.

Riddle me this: does this explain tens of thousands of Massachusetts voters changing their party affiliation? Does it explain the massive increase in primary turnout on the R side and the (mostly) lower totals on the D side?

What is happening is a lot of white working class are changing their party affiliation or voting in open primaries for Trump. He has them convinced that he (alone) can fix what is wrong with government because he knows business.

The value of unsupported conjecture...
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3065
Fate
I think when it becomes clear Trump can't win, he'll exit. He won't waste his money on a purely quixotic venture. However, it will take some time for him to wake from his delusion


Still true. At any point if this is the case, he'll get out. Unfortunately, so far, no matter what he does or says people keep voting for him.

I think the signs for the genuine support within the Republican Party for Trumps' emotional but contradictory, racist, sexist, dishonest rhetoric were there long ago. The Tea Party was all about misplaced anger and irrational response...


You don't know anything about the Tea Party. I am Tea Party. It's not "misplaced anger." It was at Bush, the bailout, Obama, the maddening overspending and underperforming of government, the ever-increasing concentration of power in DC, etc. It was not about any of the other crap you've listed and it was not "irrational."

I know. You love to go to Social Security and Medicare to "prove" the irrationality of the Tea Party. Rubbish. I've said a million times and I believe most Tea Partyers agree: if reform of the system meant I had to work another year or two or that I received slightly less, I'd be fine with that if it actually fixed the system. The problem with you socialists is that you always think taxation and growth of government solves problems. We don't.

You just had to be willing to accept that a large part of the republican base, and the most active primary voters, agreed with the incoherent message. And didn't really understand why it was incoherent. Or why it repels most of their fellow citizens.


What you fail to understand is that Trump is a threat to Hillary. He attracts the voters she needs. It's his celebrity and his aura, not his policies.

Many conservatives won't vote for Trump. However, he's not aiming at us. He's aiming at Hillary's heart: white working class. He's going to attack her in ways that will make me blush--and it will work.

Personally, I don't want it. I find it embarrassing. Furthermore, he's a Jacksonian Democrat. He's a raw populist. She is going to run on competence, but the electorate isn't buying that. Ask Jeb.

I can see a way to stop him. It all depends on the 15th. If he loses Ohio and Florida, then there may be a means to make this process into an ugly floor fight. The advantage Trump has is that his supporters are zombies.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 10:32 am

Because I love Trump so: http://trumpdonald.org/

Yes, it's juvenile. It also relieves stress.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 10:57 am

Now, let's get serious:

Before the results came in last night, Dave Wasserman of FiveThirtyEight said Trump winning 300+ delegates would be a good night, 250-300 would be about as expected, and less than 250 would be bad. He finished with 234, giving him 318 delegates in total since the primaries began — still plenty good enough at this point to put him on track for the nomination but leaving him short of the juggernaut buzz he would have enjoyed this morning if he’d blown out Cruz and Rubio everywhere except Texas. And although Rubio’s now a distant third in overall delegates, with just 106 compared to 226 for Cruz, his home state has 99 alone and is winner-take-all. If he beats Trump there in two weeks, which everyone understands that he needs to do, he’d make up most of the difference with Cruz in one fell swoop and will be headed into Virginia-type states where primary voters are more likely to prefer him to Cruz.


And, Nate Silver.

Trump has an edge, a pretty good one, but he doesn't have a lock on it yet.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 11:25 am

I can see a way to stop him. It all depends on the 15th. If he loses Ohio and Florida, then there may be a means to make this process into an ugly floor fight.


I'm not wholly clear on what you mean by this, but are you suggesting that it can be taken to the convention and then Trump can be shafted in a backroom deal ? I'm not convinced that would work. If that were to happen then it could be sold by Trump as a betrayal that releases him from his promise not to run as an independent, and if that happens then Hillary will walk the election.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 11:53 am

Ricky:

The value of polling people on attitudes and learning from those polls.
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3065

Ricky http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/n ... ad-n406766

A good quarter of republicans seem to be in lock step with his attitudes.towards everything and everybody

ray

It's an interesting poll. I've certainly been confounded by his popularity. It all seems to be based on his hitting the right emotions, but not on policy, because his policy ideas are not particularly conservative, perhaps with the exception of immigration.


The value of unsupported conjecture...
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3065


I have no idea what Ricky is trying to say here. (edited to fix quotes)
Last edited by Ray Jay on 02 Mar 2016, 12:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 11:56 am

Sassenach wrote:
I can see a way to stop him. It all depends on the 15th. If he loses Ohio and Florida, then there may be a means to make this process into an ugly floor fight.


I'm not wholly clear on what you mean by this, but are you suggesting that it can be taken to the convention and then Trump can be shafted in a backroom deal ? I'm not convinced that would work. If that were to happen then it could be sold by Trump as a betrayal that releases him from his promise not to run as an independent, and if that happens then Hillary will walk the election.


1. I don't think he would have time to organize such a run and get on all the ballots.
2. He would not invest that much money on a mission impossible.
3. More importantly, Ohio and Florida are "winner take all" States, meaning 2nd place gets no delegates. To put that in focus, Florida is 99 delegates. Winning that would put Rubio roughly equal with Cruz. Ohio has 66. If Kasich wins there, he'll have some sway at the convention. There are 391 delegates available in winner-take-all States.

March 15th will tell us a lot more than yesterday because North Carolina, Ohio, Illinois, Florida and Missouri all hold their primaries and each of them is winner-take-all.

At this point, I expect rickyp or someone to go to the RCP averages and show how Trump is unstoppable. Sure, just like he was in VA, VT, Oklahoma, and Alaska. He narrowly won Virginia after polls showed him winning by 20.

We'll see.

Everyone fixates on the number of states that Trump won tonight—and don't get me wrong, it's wildly impressive. Even more so when you consider how little money he's spent on the race.

But on the other hand, these victories should have been priced into Trump's stock. If you were looking at these races carefully 96 hours ago, you would have expected Trump to win nine, ten, or eleven states tonight. And the median-variant scenario for Trump probably had him coming away with somewhere between 280 and 300 delegates.

So Trump came close to covering the spread on states won—losing Texas, Oklahoma, and Minnesota and being very close in Vermont and Virginia. But he came in very short on the delegate count.

We won't know the exact numbers until Wednesday, but it looks as though Trump will, by some estimates, finish with somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 delegates. A week ago, that would have been a worst-case scenario for his Super Tuesday. It gets worse: Cruz won resounding victories in Texas and Oklahoma. He trails Trump in the delegate haul for the night by only about 60 delegates. And when you put together the not-Trump share, Rubio and Cruz (and Kasich) will top out around 320 delegates to Trump's 245 (or so). He's still falling way short of half the delegates.

There's more evidence of Trump weakness if you look closely: Why did he lose Oklahoma? Because it's the only state where the vote was restricted to actual Republicans. Which further bolsters the case that Trump is not leading a revolt from within the party, but staging a hostile takeover of it.

What happened in Virginia? Trump looked to be 14 points up just a few days ago. Rubio closed very strongly.

. . .

There was that garbage poll from CNN on Monday claiming Trump was at 49 percent nationally. His total take of the popular vote on Super Tuesday was about . . . 36 percent. Which is enough to win, but shows that he hasn't grown his coalition, even with his frontrunner status having been "normalized."

But wait, there's more! The single most shocking number from Super Tuesday might have been this poll showing voter awareness about various aspects of Trump: Only 27 percent had heard about his reluctance to denounce David Duke and the KKK; 20 percent about Trump University and the fraud lawsuit; 13 percent about the failure of Trump Mortgage.

At some point, those numbers will all be at 90 percent because someone will spend a lot of money putting ads about them all over television in battleground states. The only question is whether it will be conservatives or Hillary Clinton who expose voters to this information. Either way, it suggests that Trump still has the potential for downward mobility if conservative donors are serious about stopping him.

Of course, you can spend your life flyspecking trend lines. And Trump could continue to lose momentum over the next four weeks and still grind his way to the nomination. Winning is what matters.

But if you believe that stopping Trump matters too, then Super Tuesday offered evidence this goal is achievable.


He could still win. He might not.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 12:06 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:Now, let's get serious:

Before the results came in last night, Dave Wasserman of FiveThirtyEight said Trump winning 300+ delegates would be a good night, 250-300 would be about as expected, and less than 250 would be bad. He finished with 234, giving him 318 delegates in total since the primaries began — still plenty good enough at this point to put him on track for the nomination but leaving him short of the juggernaut buzz he would have enjoyed this morning if he’d blown out Cruz and Rubio everywhere except Texas. And although Rubio’s now a distant third in overall delegates, with just 106 compared to 226 for Cruz, his home state has 99 alone and is winner-take-all. If he beats Trump there in two weeks, which everyone understands that he needs to do, he’d make up most of the difference with Cruz in one fell swoop and will be headed into Virginia-type states where primary voters are more likely to prefer him to Cruz.


And, Nate Silver.

Trump has an edge, a pretty good one, but he doesn't have a lock on it yet.


His percentages are too high across the board for Trump not to get close to a majority of delegates. He's insulted women, the handicapped, war heroes, etc. and maintains high support. If Trump were to win 45% of the delegates, and somehow the party establishment were to take the nomination away from him, I think that would split the Party. Having the party leaders ignore the voters is a good reason why so many of the rank and file are upset with the Republican Party establishment to begin with.

Alternatively, if Trump were to win the election, I think we would have some sort of disaster. His suggestions about all sorts of things including torture, civil rights, freedom of the press, religious litmus tests, rounding up illegals, trade tariffs, etc. are extremely high risk. Who knows where we would go, but I fear for our soul, and my 401(k). Maybe in 2 years when he crosses another tenet of civilization the Congress tries to get rid of him. What would his impeachment do to the Republican Party and the country?

At this point I think the best outcome is Trump wins the nomination but loses the general to Clinton. Our republic can survive 4 or 8 more years of divided government, higher taxes, and more regulation. Not fun, but not fatal.