Donald Trump:

you are supposed to be born in this country, so I just don't know how the courts will rule on this."

Trump should reread his constitution ... it doesn't say that.

Donald Trump being an ignorant twerp is not really a surprise.

There has been some controversy in the past about candidates who were not born in the US (George Romney, John McCain), but I think it has been pretty much established that either birth in the US, or birth to US citizens, is "natural born citizenship".

I find it amusing that this is even an issue. The US is one of the few countries that still practices birthright citizenship. You literally hand out passports to anybody born on American soil. In my job I'm forever seeing Nigerian families where one of their kids is an American citizen. Going to America to give birth is something that every Nigerian family who can afford it does. Typically they don't stick around afterwards though. If little Obafemi Awolowe from Lagos is entitled to become President then it seems perverse that John McCain or Ted Cruz wouldn't be.

His last name might be Bush, but he might be the best candidate of the bunch, at least he sounds much better than Walker in this article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/30/us/politics/jeb-bush-and-scott-walker-carve-paths-to-republican-presidential-nomination.html?_r=0

They usually pick the more moderate candidate in the end, and I expect the same will happen again this time. The logic of the situation is that people like Steve or Brad, who may not especially like the moderates too much and would never support them in the primaries, will always vote for them against a Democrat. The sort of voters that Jeb can potentially attract would never vote for Scott Walker.

Yes,I realise that the Bush name is a handicap, but it's also a great help. You wouldn't be seeing any other moderate Republican making the running at this point. His name works mostly in his favour, and since he's likely to be up against a Clinton anyway it's less of an issue.

Since you (sort of) asked:

Reagan '84 (Yes, I voted for Reagan. My first presidential vote!)
Bush I '88 (Yes, I voted for Bush I, Saw him as a good man)
Bush I '92 (Yes)
Dole '96 (No - Voted for Howard Phillips)
Bush II '00 (No - Voted for Howard Phillips) (Was in Key West, FL for the hanging chad debacle...)
Bush II '04 (Yes, Voted for President because of his handling of WoT)
McCain '08 (Yes. Respected McCain)
Romney '12 (Yes)

In my state, my vote does not matter all that much. It is the coastal area that runs the state. I do not advocate change in the Electoral College, however. If change is needed, it would be me moving to another state. That is how we effect change... Personally, and with our own actions.

Not expecting others to change to accommodate our opinions.

You live in Washington State ? I seem to recall that being the case. Can't imagine that one ever going Republican anytime soon.

It's interesting how both of our most stridently conservative members here live in deep blue states.

Sassenach wrote:You live in Washington State ? I seem to recall that being the case. Can't imagine that one ever going Republican anytime soon.

It's interesting how both of our most stridently conservative members here live in deep blue states.

If it helps I live in one of the most conservative areas in the state.

I too live in a rather conservative part of a blue state. Being an unaffiliated moderate doesn't much help.

Sassenach:

I find it amusing that this is even an issue. The US is one of the few countries that still practices birthright citizenship. You literally hand out passports to anybody born on American soil. In my job I'm forever seeing Nigerian families where one of their kids is an American citizen. Going to America to give birth is something that every Nigerian family who can afford it does. Typically they don't stick around afterwards though. If little Obafemi Awolowe from Lagos is entitled to become President then it seems perverse that John McCain or Ted Cruz wouldn't be.

Well, it's also a matter of the XIV Amendment, or at least its interpretation.

Sec. 1 reads:

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

So it kind of makes it hard to deny anyone American citizenship if they--excuse the vulgarity--literally plop right out of so-and-so's uterus on U.S. soil, or one of its territories (American Samoa, Puerto Rico, etc.) or a military base or embassy/consulate; regardless of the nationality of the owner of said uterus. Even the most conservative members of Congress can't really touch the issue, politically speaking.

Is also strange, though, that foreign "birth" is a debarment for the presidency/vice-presidency, but not for any other office I can think of.

So, according to Wikipedia the current prospects are:

Standing and mentioned in polls
Ben Carson,
Ted Cruz,
Carly Fiorina,
Lindsey Graham,
Mike Huckabee,
George Pataki,
Rand Paul,
Rick Perry,
Marco Rubio,
Rick Santorum,

Standing but not being polled on (the real no-hopers)
Mark Everson,
Jack Fellure,

Announcements impending
Jeb Bush,
Bobby Jindal,
Donald Trump,

Formally exploring a candidacy
Chris Christie,
John Kasich,
Scott Walker,

Publicly expressed interest
Bob Ehrlich,
Jim Gilmore,
Peter King,

That's 21 and counting - although 9 of those are yet to declare.

How many will be there by the time of the first caucus/primaries? And who will fall by the wayside?

There's too many for me to know much about all of them, but there seem to be a fair number from the right of the party - are they not going to shatter the anti-moderate vote like this?

danivon wrote:So, according to Wikipedia the current prospects are:

Standing and mentioned in polls
Ben Carson,
Ted Cruz,
Carly Fiorina,
Lindsey Graham,
Mike Huckabee,
George Pataki,
Rand Paul,
Rick Perry,
Marco Rubio,
Rick Santorum,

Standing but not being polled on (the real no-hopers)
Mark Everson,
Jack Fellure,

Announcements impending
Jeb Bush,
Bobby Jindal,
Donald Trump,

Formally exploring a candidacy
Chris Christie,
John Kasich,
Scott Walker,

Publicly expressed interest
Bob Ehrlich,
Jim Gilmore,
Peter King,

That's 21 and counting - although 9 of those are yet to declare.

How many will be there by the time of the first caucus/primaries? And who will fall by the wayside?

There's too many for me to know much about all of them, but there seem to be a fair number from the right of the party - are they not going to shatter the anti-moderate vote like this?

The field will be winnowed after Iowa, then further by New Hampshire. By the time we hit Florida, there will be less than 8. I suspect every "dark horse" save one will be gone by the end of South Carolina (i.e. before Florida).

I did not know Ehrlich expressed any interest in the presidency. Though that would be amusing for a lot of people if he stood against Martin O'malley and won.

Doctor Fate wrote:
The field will be winnowed after Iowa, then further by New Hampshire. By the time we hit Florida, there will be less than 8. I suspect every "dark horse" save one will be gone by the end of South Carolina (i.e. before Florida).

But we will see 19-20 go into Iowa? Surely the winnowing will start before that. Or it's going to be a ridiculous exercise.

I daresay the ability to attract sufficient donors will determine how many names go forward to Iowa.

You can see why so many are interested. With no incumbent to run against and with the Republicans in the ascendancy of late this is a golden opportunity which may not come again for another 8 years. It's also noteworthy that relatively unknown candidates have shot to prominence quite regularly in recent election cycles, so a lack of name recognition at this point isn't necessarily a major handicap right now. Obama himself is the obvious example of a relatively unknown rookie who ran against bigger names and took the prize but there are other, less electorally successful, people who have leveraged a Presidential bid into a lucrative career (Palin, Huckabee etc), so there's every reason to go for it.

danivon wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:
The field will be winnowed after Iowa, then further by New Hampshire. By the time we hit Florida, there will be less than 8. I suspect every "dark horse" save one will be gone by the end of South Carolina (i.e. before Florida).

But we will see 19-20 go into Iowa? Surely the winnowing will start before that. Or it's going to be a ridiculous exercise.

The only reason I lean toward "no" is what Santorum was able to do in Iowa last time. Every underdog fancies himself/herself this year's Santorum.