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Post 02 Mar 2016, 12:18 pm

Ray Jay wrote:His percentages are too high across the board for Trump not to get close to a majority of delegates. He's insulted women, the handicapped, war heroes, etc. and maintains high support. If Trump were to win 45% of the delegates, and somehow the party establishment were to take the nomination away from him, I think that would split the Party. Having the party leaders ignore the voters is a good reason why so many of the rank and file are upset with the Republican Party establishment to begin with.


I agree, which is why he must be stopped now, before he attains 45%. It's not impossible. There are many who do not know (as a previous link said) about his many failures. The money needs to be invested there.

Alternatively, if Trump were to win the election, I think we would have some sort of disaster. His suggestions about all sorts of things including torture, civil rights, freedom of the press, religious litmus tests, rounding up illegals, trade tariffs, etc. are extremely high risk.


I do not disagree. However, there is such antipathy for the "machine" (establishment, Congress, experienced leadership) that I'm not sure he would beat Hillary either (I certainly would not vote for her no matter what). The mood is not for competence or reliability, but for revolution and destruction.

Who knows where we would go, but I fear for our soul, and my 401(k). Maybe in 2 years when he crosses another tenet of civilization the Congress tries to get rid of him. What would his impeachment do to the Republican Party and the country?


He likely will split the GOP anyway--unless he is stopped fairly and squarely. If he wins, he will likely get primaried in 2020, which will be the end of the GOP as we know it. That's okay, it may be time for a realignment.

At this point I think the best outcome is Trump wins the nomination but loses the general to Clinton. Our republic can survive 4 or 8 more years of divided government, higher taxes, and more regulation. Not fun, but not fatal.


I think Trump is savvy enough to beat her. He will beat the email thing like a drum. And, it's hard to see how he won't bring every scandal of hers front and center. It's what he does. You saw what he did to Jeb. I don't think Hillary is all that likable or has much charisma.

What Trump represents to me is a coming of the Age of Celebrity. If he wins, we will see reality stars and other celebrities run over and over again.

In part, Trump is able to get away with his comments about the First Amendment and other outrageous things because many people don't know the first thing about our Constitution. He is afloat on a sea of ignorance.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 12:43 pm

The other issue with a shady convention deal of course is that even if Trump doesn't and up running as an independent, if half of his voters are disgusted enough to stay home in November it could have devastating consequences in the Congressional elections too.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 2:50 pm

Sassenach wrote:The other issue with a shady convention deal of course is that even if Trump doesn't and up running as an independent, if half of his voters are disgusted enough to stay home in November it could have devastating consequences in the Congressional elections too.


And, I'm going to suggest that having him at the top of the ticket is going to lop off a bunch of conservative voters too. Again, I think Trump's play is in the middle. Many Democratic strategists have already pointed this out. Hillary has a lot more to fear from Trump than Cruz. Trump cuts into her electorate. That said, his chances of keeping movement conservatives on board is close to nil.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 3:17 pm

For the historians out there, 2016 seems like it might be shaping up a little like 1912:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1912_Republican_National_Convention

Roosevelt overwhelmingly won the primaries — winning 9 out of 12 states (8 by landslide margins). Taft won only the state of Massachusetts (by a small margin); he even lost his home state of Ohio to Roosevelt. Senator Robert M. La Follette, a reformer, won two states. Through the primaries, Senator LaFollette won a total of 36 delegates; President Taft won 48 delegates; and Roosevelt won 278 delegates. [Taft nominated at convention]. . . Taft and Roosevelt both lost the 1912 election to the Democratic nominee, Woodrow Wilson.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 4:14 pm

ray
I have no idea what Ricky is trying to say here.

I'm saying that looking at evidence and evaluating it with an open mind provides a better analysis of whats to come then relying on ones projected thought formed primarily by emotion.

Its a compliment to your open mind.

There is a chance that attack ads saturate the states having primaries before the 15th do affect Trumps performance. And there is a conservative PAC going to launch attack ads in the next round of primary states... ...see following link. (From a conservative web site)

The reason this might happen is that very few Republican voters before Super Tuesday were aware of
1) not disavowing the KKK 26% aware
2) fraud and Trump University 20% aware
3) the failure of Trump mortgage 9% aware

The problem is that there are still 4 candidates on the ballot. (apparently Carson is suspending his campaign). And that means a plurality of as little as 30 to 35% can win a state.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/ ... sletterad=

If this attack works. maybe just maybe he's damaged to the point to where the winner take all states could revive Rubio. Or more unlikely Kasich or Cruz.

The trouble is that Trumps base are low information types, who may not be exposed to the message in the short time left before their voting dates. . And may not care about its content if they are...
So he'll more than likely get his 30 to 35 % and maybe more... And with 4 candidates that's a win most of the time.
Unless the contest becomes a two man race and quickly, he's a lock. And I don't see Rubio, Kasich, or Cruz quitting before April 1.
And he'll be such a weak candidate in the general that perhaps Hillary's coat tails will bring in a Democratic majority in both houses... So much for divided government at that point.
And she'll be sure to nominate some terrific supreme court justices...

Fate
Again, I think Trump's play is in the middle.

Sure it is..
Historically only 6 to 8 percent of registered Dems or Republicans vote for the other candidate. However, Trump has started a revolt and there is a significant Republican group who have already said they'd rather vote for Clinton and another group that will vote third party. This will only grow, especially after his comments about Paul Ryan.
If you really think Trump has appeal among registered Dems, and will peel them away from Clinton with a populist message you're smoking. He's already offended every potential minority. His unfavorable are 10 point higher than Clinton, and that's before the attack ads really start on him.
Hillary's unfavorable are what they are, Baked in after years of exposure and years of republican smear attempts. She is flawed. But she is qualified.
Trumps not.

And on Tuesday, the chief strategist for Republican Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign said he believed Democrat Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Trump.

"Personally, I think Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Donald Trump because I think that Donald Trump is a dangerous person and is someone who would embarrass America," Stevens said.
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Post 02 Mar 2016, 5:49 pm

rickyp wrote:Fate
Again, I think Trump's play is in the middle.

Sure it is..


Sigh.

As someone who is conservative and actually knows Republicans, I understand this better than you. You understand the glories of socialism. I understand the Republican Party.

See this. http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_pol ... atic_party

His major appeal is working class voters who believe him.

Historically only 6 to 8 percent of registered Dems or Republicans vote for the other candidate.


Historically . . . well, who would you compare Trump to? What billionaire celebrity populist has run for President?

Who has ever done what he is doing in the primary--someone who has never served in public office or in the military?

Simply put, there is no historical precedent for Trump.

However, Trump has started a revolt and there is a significant Republican group who have already said they'd rather vote for Clinton and another group that will vote third party.


Nah, most of the so-called Clinton "voters" have simply declared Hillary will win. They won't vote for her. They will abstain or stay home--or vote 3rd Party.

He's already offended every potential minority. His unfavorable are 10 point higher than Clinton, and that's before the attack ads really start on him.


Here's what's funny: Trump has ways. He will turn Hillary into a suppressor of women. There is a long line of Bill's victims. Trump will make sure they are all heard. "War on women?" Sure, as conducted for decades by the Clintons.

Hillary's unfavorable are what they are,


Read this carefully. Save it in a "Doctor Fate is wrong" file, but I won't be. Her unfavorables will rise if Trump is the nominee. He will work at that night and day--and the media will help him. He has mastered the art of "I'm not saying this but other, less scrupulous people do."

Baked in after years of exposure and years of republican smear attempts. She is flawed. But she is qualified.


1. Everyone with a pulse knows she belongs in jail, not the White House. Trump won't let that go either.

2. The mood of the electorate isn't about "qualifications." It's more like "we're not going to take it, no we ain't gonna take it." Trump is feeding on that.

And on Tuesday, the chief strategist for Republican Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign said he believed Democrat Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Trump.

"Personally, I think Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Donald Trump because I think that Donald Trump is a dangerous person and is someone who would embarrass America," Stevens said.


Before he embarrasses America (as he will), he's going to embarrass Hillary. This is going to be the ugliest election since the early days of the Republic.

You have grossly misread the mood of the electorate. Now, for some moderates, Hillary will be "less detestable" than Trump, but for many she will be seen as "what is wrong with the system."

I don't want Trump as the nominee. If he wins, get ready to see hell unleashed. Whatever Hillary thinks she's getting into, it's going to be 100x worse than her worst nightmare. If Trump gets that close, nothing will be off-limits and I mean nothing.
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 6:27 am

Fate,

It's an interesting point you make about Trump's play being in the middle.

Let's say he takes away a certain section of middle-ish voters who otherwise would have voted for Hillary over Cruz, for example.

It seems, from reading the posts here in recent weeks, that there also exists a certain section of conservatives, like you and Ray, who will refuse to vote for Trump. Not that you'll vote for Hillary, of course, but those votes seem to be going elsewhere.

Do you have a sense how big this conservative section is? It may be enough to outweigh the middle-ish chunk Trump will take. Or maybe not...
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 6:50 am

Fate
As someone who is conservative and actually knows Republicans, I understand this better than you

You're the guy who's on record as saying Trump wouldn't run, that he would drop out, and that he couldn't win.
(I could detail some of your other "it'll never happen" type prognostications, but I won't).
Fate
His major appeal is working class voters who believe him
.
he loves him some "poorly educated". yes.
Over the general election campaign, and over the remainder of the primary season even they will start to know more about Mr. Drumpf. And that will affect even their "belief".
You always said Trump had a ceiling amongst republican primary voters. If so, and I agree with you on this, then he has an even lower ceiling, proportionally among the general electorate.
If the electorate changes in line with Census estimates for citizens of voting age, the 2016 electorate will be 70 percent white, 13 percent African-American, 11 percent Latino, and six percent Asian/Other
30% of voters are going to be Black, Hispanic or Asian. Trump has ceded 90% of that to Hillary with his rhetoric on immigration, his stumble on the KKK and his behaviour ar rallies. (Thats about 25%)
She'll keep 95% of Demographic registered voters. Because that is usually what happens, and there really is no reason to think that when a Democratic sweep is in the cards that they'll start to defect. Even from unloved Hillary. Thats about 38% Assuming that the 30% of non-white are 80% Democratic registered. (and I know that's high), this gets Hillary to 44% out of the roughly 50% in these two intersecting voter pools.
She's going to pick up at least 30% of the other 50 points. Which would get her to 59% and landslide territory.

Why, because;
Even among white voters, rising educational attainment means Republicans' core supporters are in decline. Republicans' demographic woes aren't limited to the rise of Latino and Asian voters. Over the last few decades, Democrats have done better and better with whites who hold college degrees (especially advanced degrees), while whites without a college degree have become a core element of the GOP coalition.
In 2012, each group accounted for 36 percent of the electorate. Obama carried 42 percent of white college graduates, but just 36 percent of non-college whites. In 2016, white college graduates will rise to 37 percent of the electorate. Unfortunately for Republicans, non-college whites - by far their best-performing cohort - are slated to fall three points to 33 percent as more college-educated millennials supplant conservative seniors who didn't attend college.

The GOP post-mortem from the Romney loss said that the GOP had to find a way to reach minorities and women. And Trump is doing exactly the opposite. And he's pulled the remaining GOP presidential candidates into his lane during the Primary ....so even if they miraculously derail him, the damage is pretty much done.

Its not about how you think you now republicans Fate. Its about demographics and message appeal to those demographics. Trump appeals to a half of the republican Party that are angry, white, poorly educated and poorly informed. The nature of the primary system has allowed him to almost grasp the nomination with only this plurality. But they aren't significant in the general electorate. They are only a majority in the old confederate States, minus Virginia and maybe Texas.
You can't win a general with the other 9 confederate States.
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 7:17 am

theshrizzz wrote:Fate,

It's an interesting point you make about Trump's play being in the middle.

Let's say he takes away a certain section of middle-ish voters who otherwise would have voted for Hillary over Cruz, for example.

It seems, from reading the posts here in recent weeks, that there also exists a certain section of conservatives, like you and Ray, who will refuse to vote for Trump. Not that you'll vote for Hillary, of course, but those votes seem to be going elsewhere.

Do you have a sense how big this conservative section is? It may be enough to outweigh the middle-ish chunk Trump will take. Or maybe not...


I don't know, but I do know the "establishment" is afraid. Now, Trump will say they are afraid because he can't be controlled. Others believe it's because he's not a conservative and will be a disaster.

Will he lose more on the conservative end than he can gain in the middle? Again, I don't know. However, there may be reason to think he will put some blue states in play for a reason that escapes traditional "analysts" like rickyp: celebrity. Not all voters actually vote issues. :eek:
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 7:28 am

rickyp wrote:Fate
As someone who is conservative and actually knows Republicans, I understand this better than you

You're the guy who's on record as saying Trump wouldn't run, that he would drop out, and that he couldn't win.
(I could detail some of your other "it'll never happen" type prognostications, but I won't).


Meh, not many thought he would run--given that he's been rattling that saber for 20 years.

Fate
His major appeal is working class voters who believe him
.
he loves him some "poorly educated". yes.
Over the general election campaign, and over the remainder of the primary season even they will start to know more about Mr. Drumpf. And that will affect even their "belief".


The rest of your post is analysis of demographics. Trump is beyond that. We live in a time wherein absolute morons are beloved by millions. It is those people who will make the difference. People who love the Kardashians and Kanye are more important than thoughtful voters who look at policy proposals.

If anyone was listening to what Trump says and paid attention to what he does, he'd be polling less than 5% in the GOP primary. He's a joke. But, they don't care. If you think that is going to change by November, good luck. The electorate is angry and seems to think that "something different" would be better than more of the same. So far, they don't seem to care that the world is in a precarious state--as is our economy.

Meanwhile, the guy who installed Hillary's home brew server has been given immunity from the DOJ and is cooperating with the FBI.

We are closer than ever to President Trump. May God spare the USA.
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 7:57 am

fate
If anyone was listening to what Trump says and paid attention to what he does, he'd be polling less than 5% in the GOP primary. He's a joke. But, they don't care. If you think that is going to change by November, good luck. The electorate is angry and seems to think that "something different" would be better than more of the same. So far, they don't seem to care that the world is in a precarious state--as is our economy
.

The electorate is not the republican party or republican primary voters...
You have a pretty dim view of your country. I don't think its deserved.

Meanwhile, information from polling shows Hillary and Sanders ahead of trump in head to head, from 5 to 12 points.
.. (And that's now. Before the avalanche of negative ads hit the airwaves in the next two weeks.)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... president/

Fate
Meanwhile, the guy who installed Hillary's home brew server has been given immunity from the DOJ and is cooperating with the FBI.

Which she had been calling for for months...
So, its pretty doubtful she sees any jeopardy in this...
There has to be intent for a felony. Hows that likely.

This is a typical Republican scandal. In the end it ends up being so esoteric that no one but fanatics like you are interested. She's getting more cover on this every day... See link.
Republican leadership is backing off... Maybe its because they want Hillary and Not sSanders? Or Hillary and not Trump?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... ?tid=a_inl
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 8:51 am

rickyp wrote:fate
If anyone was listening to what Trump says and paid attention to what he does, he'd be polling less than 5% in the GOP primary. He's a joke. But, they don't care. If you think that is going to change by November, good luck. The electorate is angry and seems to think that "something different" would be better than more of the same. So far, they don't seem to care that the world is in a precarious state--as is our economy
.

The electorate is not the republican party or republican primary voters...
You have a pretty dim view of your country. I don't think its deserved.


You have too high a view of the electorate. 20-30% know very little about the system or the difficulties our country faces.

Meanwhile, information from polling shows Hillary and Sanders ahead of trump in head to head, from 5 to 12 points.
.. (And that's now. Before the avalanche of negative ads hit the airwaves in the next two weeks.)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... president/


1. Bernie is not even a possibility. Even if lightening strikes, the party won't let him be the nominee.
2. If you think negative ads are going to hurt Trump, just wait until he starts attacking Hillary.

Fate
Meanwhile, the guy who installed Hillary's home brew server has been given immunity from the DOJ and is cooperating with the FBI.

Which she had been calling for for months...


Really? Please show this. I googled "Hillary calls for immunity for Pagliano" and it didn't show up.

Oh, the campaign says they're "pleased" now, but . . . what else are they going to say? "We're planning on moving Hillary to a country without extradition?"

So, its pretty doubtful she sees any jeopardy in this...
There has to be intent for a felony. Hows that likely.


Even if you're right, which I doubt, how about she pleads guilty to a misdemeanor and runs for President? :laugh:

This is a typical Republican scandal. In the end it ends up being so esoteric that no one but fanatics like you are interested. She's getting more cover on this every day... See link.
Republican leadership is backing off... Maybe its because they want Hillary and Not sSanders? Or Hillary and not Trump?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... ?tid=a_inl


Finger on the pulse . . . that should be your middle name. After all, when I think "Republican leadership," I think Colin Powell, who endorsed Obama for President. Nothing says "party stalwart" like "endorsed the other party's nominee."

As always, you are the comedy relief. Thank you.
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 10:07 am

Fate
1. Bernie is not even a possibility. Even if lightening strikes, the party won't let him be the nominee

I'm pretty sure the Democratic Party would respect the will of their members. Especially since polling shows him well ahead of all republicans in head to head match ups.
Though I agree that Hillary is now inevitable.

Fate
2. If you think negative ads are going to hurt Trump, just wait until he starts attacking Hillary
.
She's been attacked constantly . There's nothing new under the sun here. Her negatives are baked in.
Lots of people are unaware of Trump. Did you know Fred and Donald both were sued successfully for discriminating against blacks in their housing projects?
All of this will further build negative perceptions of Drumpf. Most certainly.


fate
Finger on the pulse . . . that should be your middle name. After all, when I think "Republican leadership," I think Colin Powell, who endorsed Obama for President. Nothing says "party stalwart" like "endorsed the other party's nominee."

He was a Secretary of State. He is still well respected across the US.
And he will not be alone among Republican "stalwart" in endorsing a democrat if Trump is the nominee... Hell, thats on now isn't it?
You'll also note that Congressional Republicans have dialed back their efforts on the email thing?
They can't afford another travesty like 13 Ben Ghazi hearings and no damage to Hill.
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 11:01 am

Shrizzz:
It seems, from reading the posts here in recent weeks, that there also exists a certain section of conservatives, like you and Ray, who will refuse to vote for Trump. Not that you'll vote for Hillary, of course, but those votes seem to be going elsewhere.


I am an economic conservative, but not a social conservative. I'm all for equal gay rights on marriage, de-criminalization of pot, and legal abortion in the 1st trimester. I'm for gun control and think there's something to global warming in spite of the left's hyperbole and the potential for the cure to be worse than the disease.

I would vote for Clinton over Trump. I'll hope that the Republicans retain Congress.
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Post 03 Mar 2016, 11:08 am

Doctor Fate wrote:Meanwhile, the guy who installed Hillary's home brew server has been given immunity from the DOJ and is cooperating with the FBI.

We are closer than ever to President Trump. May God spare the USA.

If Hillary gets indicted, she drops out. A brokered Dem convention might bring in Joe Biden, the only candidate who realistically could have beat Hillary anyway. Hello President Biden...