NDP Surge and BC Races

The NDP surge is really quite interesting. I guess in many regions of Canada where the races are between the Conservatives and Liberals, the growing popularity of the NDP is good news for the Conservatives. However, living in British Columbia, where some of the races are between the NDP and the Conservatives, the NDP surge in the polls is very exciting.

In the previous federal election the Conservatives received 44.46% of the popular vote, followed by the NDP with 26.07%.
However, the concentration of votes is more important. Here are some ridings that may have close and exciting races:

Burnaby-Douglas (1.69%) NDP
New Westminster-Coquitlam (3%) NDP
Surrey North (3.18%) Conservative
Nanaimo-Cowichan (7.59%) NDP
Vancouver Island North (4.35%) Conservative

The percentages are the percentage difference of vote share in the riding between the Conservatives and NDP in the previous election. And the incumbent party is listed in italics.

Conservatives and Abortion

Additionally, I'm somewhat surprised that Stephen Harper has said that the Conservatives, if given a majority, will not revise Canada's laws pertaining to abortion. (Especially since the announcement was made in Conception Bay.

I guess this shouldn't really come as a surprise, since this was included in the True North Strong and Free platform as well (2008) which states that:

A Conservative Government will not initiate or support any legislation to regulate abortion

I'm not sure how well this issue sits with the political base of the Conservative party. Indeed, there are economic conservatives who may be unaffected by this plank of the party platform, but assuredly social conservatives cannot be pleased.

NDP Triumph

danivon wrote:Well, it would be nice to see the NDP get a stint of power.

I agree. Well, I think it isn't too far fetched to see the NDP as leading the official opposition.

In their CBC interviews both Jack Layton and Michael Ignatieff, when asked how their party platforms were different, seemed to give an awkward response. So, perhaps, the two parties won't be so different if either of the gentlemen had the role as leader of the opposition.

There are some who see Jack Layton as overly critical. It is sometimes said that he has the luxury of behaving this way because he knows that his party isn't a viable replacement to the government of the day (Conservative or Liberal). Perhaps, as the NDP grows in popularity during this recent election and if that translates to votes, Jack Layton's approach will change slightly.

Nevertheless, the job of the opposition is to hold the government to account. It is hard to make the case that the Liberals have done this effectively, considering that much of what Mr. Ignatieff is campaigning against is the same thing that he (perhaps reluctantly) voted in favour of. That is, on the rare occasions that he was there to vote for anything at all.

I've spoken to some individuals working on campaigns for local Conservative candidates and they've said that they'd much prefer Jack Layton as the leader of the opposition than Michael Ignatieff. Perhaps that's their own partisan bias getting the better of them (hoping for the collapse of the Liberal party which would seem a nearly inevitably consequence of an NDP surge in seats) but I'm not sure that's entirely the case. Love him or hate him, Jack Layton has been there doing what he was elected to do, and I think that's earned him a great deal of respect from individuals of all political stripes.

NDP, the Polls and Quebec Voters

On the national level, it seems that the NDP are polling ahead of the Liberals.

In Quebec, the latest Ekos poll (Apr 22-24) projected that the NDP would received 39% of the vote. This is remarkable given that the Bloc Quenecois is polling at 25% this election. (Additionally, the Bloc polled at 38.1% in the 2008 election. The NDP therefore, has surpassed the Bloc’s portion of vote from the last election.)

Of course, this surge in NDP support means little if it is not concentrated in ridings. (Alas, such is the nature of our electoral system). But what ridings will they be concentrated in? A study of last year’s electoral results reveals little in the way of this migration of Quebec voters towards the NDP.

Nevertheless, the latest Ekos poll reveals a 14 point percentage difference between the NDP and the Bloc. (That’s a 1% increase in the percentage difference than indicated by the Environics poll which was the subject of much discussion by the CBC At Issue Panel)

Outside of Quebec, the NDP are polling higher than both the Conservatives and Liberals in Atlantic Canada. The latest Ekos poll places the NDP at 35% (Lib. 30% and Con 28%) with a 5.8% margin of error. In BC, as expected, the race between the Conservatives and NDP is quite tight, with 5% separating the pair in the latest Ekos poll (Apr 22-24) which places the Conservatives at 35% and the NDP at 30% with a 6.4% margin of error. The 5% difference is significant since the previous Ekos poll (Apr 18-20) had a 10% difference between the two parties with the Conservatives at 37% and the NDP at 27% with a 3.7% margin of error.

That is a huge jump for the NDP between April 20 and April 24. 12pts from the looks of it. Any indication os waht that is attributed to?

Quebec is historically a volatile electorate. Occassionally huge swings occur during election campaigns in response to long simmering conditions.
In Quebec there has, for the last 35 years, been a federal-soverneigntist spectrum versus a left/right spectrum.
Lately its apparent that the very concept of Quebec independence seems to have fallen off the table. Where it held between 30 and 40% support in the past...and in one historic vote, as much as 49% for sovereignty association (Whatever that was going to be...)
Within Quebec nationalism seeming to be running out of gas as the population ages, and the young bilingual are looking beyond the borders much more than their unilingual parents, so sending "nationalists" to Ottawa to fight from the opposition benches for the best deal for Quebec seems to be losing lustre. The party closest to most Quebecers who'd vote Bloc are the socialist NDP, Layton is a reasonable fellow, with more personality than the leaders of the Tories or the Liberal. (It would be virtually impossible to have less personality than Harper) He's born in Montreal, speaks reasonable French and he represents change...
If the move is going, in Quebec, the way it seems to be, Harpers chances for a majority are going out the door. He'll lose in Quebec, anything that he might gain in Atlantic Canada or elsewhere...
The big loser, if this continues, the Liberals who may slip to third... The scenario of a Conservative government failing and an NDP Liberal coalition coming to power with PM Jack is a possibility.
In the old days, the Liberals depended on Quebec to build their majorities... I think no one really expected that it would be a switch to NDP ever though.....
For the country, the rise of the NDP as a force in Quebec would signal the end of the Quebec "threat". it might also, perversely, lead to the election of a PQ (separtist) provinical government in Quebec. The provinical liberals are terribly unpopular right now, but the only alternative are the PQ. If a signal has been sent to the PQ that the populace won't tolerate another referendum and they change their tune of promising such ... they might well replace the Liberals. (Given enough time, perhaps a provinical NDP could be built up, but the Quebec Provincial election is due in 12 months.) The PQ are lead by purists right now however.... And they'll likely ride their horse over the cliff rather than compromise as they have in the past...

And it all looked so boring a couple of weeks ago! It reminds me of the Liberal Democrat surge in the UK elections last year, which subsided a little but saw them end up with their highest ever vote total (but not translated into extra seats). The most interesting thing will be who can form a government, and whether Layton and his party will be able to live up to expectations if they are in government.

Archduke Russell John wrote:That is a huge jump for the NDP between April 20 and April 24. 12pts from the looks of it. Any indication os waht that is attributed to?

I'm not sure what has contributed to this surge. British Columbia tends to have Conservative-NDP contests (which suggests a somewhat polarized electorate I guess) so the closeness of the two parties in the province is not out of the ordinary.

However, what is interesting is that some Ekos polls show the NDP garnering more votes in BC than the Conservatives, which would definitely be remarkable.

Interestingly, the same Ekos results suggests that 56.0% of British Columbians under the age of 25 intend to vote Conservative. This is, of course with a 32.7% margin of error.

In Quebec, the NDP seems to have gained at the expense of the Bloc Quebecois. Not sure what issue (if it is an issue) triggered this shift.

If the move is going, in Quebec, the way it seems to be, Harpers chances for a majority are going out the door.

I’m not sure if this is necessarily the case. In 2008 there were five seats in Quebec that were contests between the Bloc and the Conservatives with the victor having a margin of victory of less than 10%. If voters were to split their votes between the Bloc and the NDP then the Conservatives would possibly be able to hold on to their existing seats as well as make gains at the expense of the dividing electorate.

Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik—Eeyou (BQ 9.3%)
Beauport—Limoilou (CON 4.2%)
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord (BQ 6.4%)
Louis-Hébert (BQ 8.0%)
Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean (CON 3.8%)

Even before the NDP surge, it was not expected that the Conservatives would make major progress in Quebec in the 2011 election. Nevertheless, there were (and are) speculations as to a Conservative majority. That being said, I’m not sure the happenings in the province of Quebec have as much bearing on the prospect of a Conservative majority as we may initially think. Essentially, if the Conservatives were not expected to make gains in Quebec before the NDP surge, I’m not confident that the NDP surge will hurt their chances in la belle province.

Then again, to be sure, Quebec is more or less essential for a majority (and the NDP are not only surging in Quebec) so there is a chance that it could have some effect on the Conservative vote. However, the polls haven’t indicated a Conservative majority to begin with, so perhaps the NDP surge cannot be attributed to preventing a Conservative majority when there was little evidence that a majority was going to occur.

The scenario of a Conservative government failing and an NDP Liberal coalition coming to power with PM Jack is a possibility.

If the polls are anything to go by, the Conservatives are going to form the government. The number of seats they will have in the legislature remains up in the air. Conservative support has been rather stable. This would suggest that the Conservatives haven’t really attracted new supporters during the course of this campaign. [1] Of course, this is not particularly terrible in an electoral system such as ours. If there is enough chaos amongst the other parties, then static or even diminished popular support can carry the day.

What has made this election interesting is not so much who will form the government but who will form the opposition. For an NDP led coalition to form the legislature would first have to defeat the government on a confidence motion. This, of course, could happen, but I’m not sure if Mr. Layton is prepared to challenge a government with so recently renewed a mandate right from the get-go. To do so would suggest an echo of hypocrisy in his election promise to work with the elected legislature, no matter its configuration. Indeed, this was a very welcome message from the NDP campaign. It would be a shame to hastily do away with the hard-earned imagery of co-operation in a bid for the top office.

Assuming a Conservative minority government, if Mr. Layton were to become leader of the Official Opposition, in order to become Prime Minister he would have to enter into a coalition with the Liberals. I’m not sure that the Liberals, so accustomed to being the “natural governing party of Canada” would be comfortable as the junior partner in this arrangement. (Indeed, it would have to be a ménage a trios since the Bloc would likely have to support the agreement in order for the coalition to govern.) Not only would an NDP led coalition seem to go against the “Blue door-Red door” rhetoric of Mr. Igantieff, I think it may also leave some Liberals with the idea of defecting to the Conservatives.

[1] Of course, this could be completely off the mark and the Conservatives could alternately be attracting and losing supporters at a remarkably fast-pace which produces statistical results that mimic a stable support base. Nevertheless, somehow I’m inclined to think that Conservative support has remained largely stable.

Conservative Majority
In the 2008 election the Conservative Party won 143 seats, 12 seats shy of a majority government. There were 27 ridings in which the Member of Parliament had a margin of victory of less than 5%. The Conservative Party holds 17 of those 27 ridings (In other words, approximately 63% of the constituencies with a less than 5% margin of victory are held by the Conservative Party of Canada.) Were the Conservatives to retain all their existing seats as well as gain all of the remaining 10 constituencies with a margin of victory less than 5%, they would still be 2 seats short of forming a majority.

Seats the Conservatives could claim (5% threshold)
AB Edmonton—Strathcona (NDP 0.98%)
BC Burnaby—Douglas (NDP 1.69)
BC Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca (LIB 0.12%)
BC New Westminster—Coquitlam (NDP 2.99%)
BC Vancouver South (LIB 0.05%)
NB Moncton--Riverview—Dieppe (LIB 3.30%)
NWT Western Arctic (NDP 3.82%)
ON Brampton West (LIB 0.41%)
ON Brampton Springdale (LIB 1.71%)
ON Eglinton—Lawrence (LIB 4.74%)
ON Mississauga South (LIB 4.64%)
ON Sault Ste. Marie (NDP 2.71%)
ON Welland (NDP 0.59%)
PEI Malpeque (LIB 4.91%)

Seats the Conservatives could lose (5% threshold)
AB Edmonton--Sherwood Park 3.39%
BC Surrey North 3.18%
BC Saanich--Gulf Islands 4.07%
BC Vancouver Island North 4.40%
BC North Vancouver 4.89%
NB NB Saint John 1.43%
NS South Shore--St. Margaret's 2.33%
NS West Nova 3.79%
ON Mississauga--Erindale -0.74%
ON Oak Ridges--Markham 0.72%
ON Kitchener Centre 0.75%
ON Kitchener—Waterloo (0.03%)
ON London West 3.68%
PEI PEI Egmont (0.30%)
QC Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean 3.89%
QC Beauport--Limoilou 4.15%
SK SK Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar 0.97%

A 5% margin of victory means they need only a 2.5% swing, which isn't all that much. There's likely to be a lot more seats in play than those.

Sassenach wrote:A 5% margin of victory means they need only a 2.5% swing, which isn't all that much. There's likely to be a lot more seats in play than those.

Indeed, there are definitely more ridings at play. Which ridings (if any) would you say are the likeliest to switch from the incumbent to the Conservatives in order to give them a majority?

Thomas Flanagan, in Campaign Strategy: Triage and the Concentration of Resourcs (Which is Ch.8 in Elections edited by H.MacIvor) uses the "rule of ten" to determine which resources are most deserving of party resources. Essentially, ridings where the margin of victory is 10% or below is where parties should invest their resources.

This is, of course, somewhat of a simplification of Flanagan's point. He discusses the use of Direct Voter Contact (DVC) programs which have been shown in some cases to increase a party's vote share by 10% points, hence the formation of the "rule of ten."

Like you said, a 5% margin of victory is not really a figure that is very large. I will sift through the constituencies in an attempt to apply Flanagan's 10% threshold. Professor Andy Heard, however, seems to have used the 5% threshold in his database on marginal constituencies, (Which I looked through for the ridings which the Conservatives had either won or had come in second.) but I'm not sure what the rationale was for establishing this threshold.

ME - it's tough to tell if we don't know things like which party currently holds those seats, where the other parties are in relation, whether the MP there is contesting the seat again or not.

5% would be a marginal in a normal year. Looks like this isn't 'normal', and so the ground may shift enough to move things further away. If the polls are an indication, then it may be that the Conservatives gain from the Liberals but lose to the NDP. It may also be in some places that local variations produce extreme swings. But looking at the bare facts as you've presented them won't tell us much.

master

This, of course, could happen, but I’m not sure if Mr. Layton is prepared to challenge a government with so recently renewed a mandate right from the get-go. To do so would suggest an echo of hypocrisy in his election promise to work with the elected legislature, no matter its configuration. Indeed, this was a very welcome message from the NDP campaign. It would be a shame to hastily do away with the hard-earned imagery of co-operation in a bid for the top office.

Cooperation is two way Master. Harper has promised to bring in exactly the same budget that was defeated to cause th4e election. If he has the same or fewer seats in the new house, that would seem to be rather confrontational and counter productive. So if he proceeds and is defeated who isn't "cooperating?"
In that cast the Gov gen has the responsibility to seek an alternative to an election and would probably ask the second party to give it a go....

The sea change that may be happening in Quebec has put seats into play that no one may have previously suspected. The last time something this fundamental happened was when the Bloc made huge gains under Bouchard.... If the support for the NDP is broadly based across Quebec they could take 40 seats there alone. Most of their MPs will be neophytes. .. And the few the Tories currently have there would certainly be in jeopardy to the kind of band wagon effect that has occurred.
In the rest of Canada, the surge is probably at the expense of the Liberals mostly. Though the poll I read this morning put the Tories at only 35%. If thats the case, and you peel away the regions where their support is largely unassailable, then any Tory govenrment would be based on a very small plurality of seats and governing as Harper has these past years will be impossible.

One of the things happening is that in the past NDP support often fell away at the ballot box as voters made a choice to support a third party OR one that might defeat Tories. With a band wagon effect being reported, this ballot box erosion might not occur. But Master is right that if Tory support remains at 40% the NDP surge might only mean second place showings instead of third. The difference is in Quebec. There they are leading the Bloc and may appeal to the 50% hard core federalists as the alternative to the Bloc in every riding. (With a few Montreal Liberal seats being the exceptions.)

By the way, the advance polling has been at record levels. That would seem to indicate an enthusiasm that hasn't been noted before. Usually this kind of enthusiasm precludes a big change one way or another.