We are nearly at the end of the annual party conferences (for any Americans watching, the party conferences are like the national conventions except that they are more about agreeing policy platforms than about showboating).
Labour's was low key, which seems odd for a party ahead in the polls and looking likely to at least be the largest party in May. Miliband went for a 'conversational' speech with no autocue, but this led to him omitting (perhaps deliberately, perhaps not) part concerning the fiscal deficit and immigration.
UKIP held theirs in good spirits with a couple of Tory MPs defecting before and during, a rallying call to take on Labour in the North and the usual slightly odd policy platform.
The Tories had theirs overshadowed somewhat by their errant former MPs (and spent perhaps a bit too much time making digs at them individually), but also had some popular/populist policy promises to make: clamping down on the free speech of 'extremists', freezing welfare payments, tax cuts.
The Lib Dems have theirs next (usually they go first, but didn't want to clash with the Scottish devolution referendum). Not sure what that will be like - so far they seem to be doing their best to put a brave face against mass unpopularity and to attack both the Opposition and their own coalition partners.
Are these an indication of the election campaigns to come?
Will the byelections over the next few weeks have an impact? They are:
Heywood & Middleton (9 Oct): Labour-held, up due to the passing of Jim Dobbin. The Tories are second and the Lib Dems were just behind in 3rd last time. However, UKIP are making inroads and clearly using issues like Rotherham and the death of Lee Rigby to attract white working-class (and middle-class) voters who may be worried about immigration and Muslims. The Lib Dem vote will probably collapse, while a fairly large vote for the BNP will probably transfer to UKIP. However, last time a seat in Greater Manchester was contested - Sale & Wythenshaw, following the death of Paul Goggins, who I knew back in 1997 when I lived there and worked on his campaign - UKIP said they would be in with a chance of winning and despite coming second were miles behind.
Clacton (9 Oct): Tory held, but the incumbent has defected to UKIP and chosen to resign his seat to stand for them. Douglas Carswell seems to have local popularity, and is riding high in the polls. The Tories appear to have given up much hope. Labour may have been in a position to benefit from a split in the right wing vote, but I suspect will be squeezed.
Rochester & Strood (date not set): Also Tory held, and also because the sitting MP has flipped to UKIP and stood down to fight the seat under new colours*. Mark Reckless (which may be a case of nominative determinism) may have a harder fight to win, and the Tories are throwing far more at the seat (and more mud at Reckless).
If UKIP win one (Clacton being most likely), then it would be a breakthrough for them, but perhaps one that does not exceed expectations. They are after all three, which would represent a major upset.
[* despite this happening twice in short succession, it's actually pretty rare for a sitting MP who changes party to stand down and fight the seat straight away. Usually they have remained in place until the next General Election, and sometimes found an alternative seat. One exception is Dick Taverne, Labour MP who resigned from the party in 1973 as he was pro-Europe and the local party was anti. He formed a new party, "Democratic Labour" and won the byelection, and even held the seat in the following spring's General Election, before losing in the October 1974 re-run]
Labour's was low key, which seems odd for a party ahead in the polls and looking likely to at least be the largest party in May. Miliband went for a 'conversational' speech with no autocue, but this led to him omitting (perhaps deliberately, perhaps not) part concerning the fiscal deficit and immigration.
UKIP held theirs in good spirits with a couple of Tory MPs defecting before and during, a rallying call to take on Labour in the North and the usual slightly odd policy platform.
The Tories had theirs overshadowed somewhat by their errant former MPs (and spent perhaps a bit too much time making digs at them individually), but also had some popular/populist policy promises to make: clamping down on the free speech of 'extremists', freezing welfare payments, tax cuts.
The Lib Dems have theirs next (usually they go first, but didn't want to clash with the Scottish devolution referendum). Not sure what that will be like - so far they seem to be doing their best to put a brave face against mass unpopularity and to attack both the Opposition and their own coalition partners.
Are these an indication of the election campaigns to come?
Will the byelections over the next few weeks have an impact? They are:
Heywood & Middleton (9 Oct): Labour-held, up due to the passing of Jim Dobbin. The Tories are second and the Lib Dems were just behind in 3rd last time. However, UKIP are making inroads and clearly using issues like Rotherham and the death of Lee Rigby to attract white working-class (and middle-class) voters who may be worried about immigration and Muslims. The Lib Dem vote will probably collapse, while a fairly large vote for the BNP will probably transfer to UKIP. However, last time a seat in Greater Manchester was contested - Sale & Wythenshaw, following the death of Paul Goggins, who I knew back in 1997 when I lived there and worked on his campaign - UKIP said they would be in with a chance of winning and despite coming second were miles behind.
Clacton (9 Oct): Tory held, but the incumbent has defected to UKIP and chosen to resign his seat to stand for them. Douglas Carswell seems to have local popularity, and is riding high in the polls. The Tories appear to have given up much hope. Labour may have been in a position to benefit from a split in the right wing vote, but I suspect will be squeezed.
Rochester & Strood (date not set): Also Tory held, and also because the sitting MP has flipped to UKIP and stood down to fight the seat under new colours*. Mark Reckless (which may be a case of nominative determinism) may have a harder fight to win, and the Tories are throwing far more at the seat (and more mud at Reckless).
If UKIP win one (Clacton being most likely), then it would be a breakthrough for them, but perhaps one that does not exceed expectations. They are after all three, which would represent a major upset.
[* despite this happening twice in short succession, it's actually pretty rare for a sitting MP who changes party to stand down and fight the seat straight away. Usually they have remained in place until the next General Election, and sometimes found an alternative seat. One exception is Dick Taverne, Labour MP who resigned from the party in 1973 as he was pro-Europe and the local party was anti. He formed a new party, "Democratic Labour" and won the byelection, and even held the seat in the following spring's General Election, before losing in the October 1974 re-run]