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Post 29 Mar 2011, 11:14 am

GMTom wrote:NATO can do it no problem, and just as Turkey (part of NATO) wants nothing to do with this, so could the US.
Cruise missiles are nice but not absolutely required, certainly not for a no fly zone only (as was the original intent)
Command is trying to be handed off to NATO so that's a non-issue
Courage? that's simply stuff of Presidential speeches, aside from France, their is plenty of courage to go around without the US taking part. That part is downright insulting to the other nations! (again, except France of course)


Tom, I don't see any facts that back up your comment. Here is an AP article on the use of cruise missiles.

http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.s ... trike.html

U.S. officials said at the outset of the missile strikes Saturday that the goals are to prevent Gadhafi from inflicting further violence on his own people and to degrade his military's ability to contest a no-fly zone. ...for a day so that he could be in Washington to monitor the operation's launch.

Navy Vice Adm. William E. Gortney, director of the Pentagon's Joint Staff, told reporters the cruise missile assault was the "leading edge" of a coalition campaign, named Operation Odyssey Dawn.

He said it would take six to 12 hours to assess the damage, and if the main targets — Libya's SA-5 surface-to-air missiles — were taken out, then it would be safe to send an unmanned Global Hawk surveillance drone to get a better picture of the area.

Libya's overall air defenses are based on older Soviet technology but Gortney called them capable and a potential threat to allied aircraft.

Also targeted: early warning radars and unspecified communications facilities, Gortney said. The U.S. military has extensive recent experience in such combat missions; U.S. Air Force and Navy aircraft repeatedly attacked Iraq's air defenses during the 1990s while enforcing a no-fly zone over Iraq's Kurdish north.

Cruise missiles are the weapon of first choice in such campaigns; they do not put pilots at risk, and they use navigational technologies that provide good precision.

The first Tomahawk cruise missiles struck at 3 p.m. EDT, Gortney said, after a one-hour flight from the U.S. and British vessels on station in the Mediterranean.

They were fired from five U.S. ships — the guided-missile destroyers USS Stout and USS Barry, and three submarines, USS Providence, USS Scranton and USS Florida.

The U.S. has at least 11 naval vessels in the Mediterranean, including three submarines, two destroyers, two amphibious warfare ships and the USS Mount Whitney, a command-and-control vessel that is the flagship of the Navy's 6th Fleet. Also in the area are Navy P-3 and EP-3 surveillance aircraft, officials said.

Don't you get it? The reason that France and other spent their time lobbying the US to get involved is that they could not do it without the US. The cruise missiles are more than nice to have ... they save pilot lives which is very important.

Also, what does NATO command and control look like without the US? This is just like Kosovo. For better or worse, the US is the indispensable partner for NATO and the west.

As for courage, sure there are many couraeous individuals in all of these countries. But the nation states are not courageous enough to do this without the US. It all seems self evident to me, no matter what your view of the advisability of the conflict.
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Post 29 Mar 2011, 11:39 am

Ray Jay wrote:I think you have to take a step back to evaluate Obama's performance in the Middle East. If you can build a continuum of success and failure, I would describe success as:

1. greater democracy
2. decline of Iranian power (which is the key to israeli cooperation in the West Bank)
3. reduced blood shed
4. flowing oil
5. better relations between the west and the Muslim world
6. Limited cost for the west (given our budgetary situations)

And I would describe failure as the opposite of these 6 and

1. increased opportunity and desire for terrorism.

Let's evaluate our intervention in Libya and the rest of this on a bigger picture. If you were to evaluate Iraq on these dimensions, at best we are 1 or 2 out of 7.


I am open to judging on this basis. Wouldn't it be nice if the President had made those seven points the thrust of his address?

That said, consider the words of Christopher Hitchens:

Can anyone imagine how the Arab spring would have played out if a keystone Arab state, oil-rich and heavily armed with a track record of intervention in its neighbors' affairs and a history of all-out mass repression against its own civilians, were still the private property of a sadistic crime family? As it is, to have had Iraq on the other scale from the outset has been an unnoticed and unacknowledged benefit whose extent is impossible to compute. And the influence of Iraq on the Libyan equation has also been uniformly positive in ways that are likewise often overlooked.

On the first point, I admit that Egyptian and Tunisian and other demonstrators did not take to the streets waving Iraqi flags, as if in emulation. (Though Saad-Eddin Ibrahim, intellectual godfather of the Egyptian democracy movement, did publicly hail the fall of Saddam as an inspiration, and many leaders of the early Lebanese "spring" spoke openly in similar terms.) This reticence is quite understandable since, apart from the northern Kurdish region of Iraq from which Foreign Minister Zebari hails, the liberation of the country was not entirely the work of its own people. But this point has become a more arguable one since the Arab League itself admitted that there are certain regimes that are impervious to unassisted overthrow from within. Qaddafi's is pre-eminently one of these, and Saddam's was notoriously so, as the repeated terror-bombings and gassings of the Shiite and Kurdish populations amply proved. Meanwhile, Iraq already has, albeit in rudimentary and tenuous form, the free press, the written constitution, and the parliamentary election system that is the minimum demand of Arab civil society. It has also passed through a test of fire in which the Bin Ladenists threw everything they had against an emergent democracy and were largely defeated and discredited. These are lessons and experiences that are useful not just for Mesopotamia.
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As for the Iraq effect on Libya: Here is what I was told in confidence by the British diplomat who helped negotiate the surrender of Qaddafi's stockpile of WMD. Not by any means a neoconservative (a breed in any case rare in her majesty's Foreign and Commonwealth Office), he emphasized three factors. First, and on this occasion at least, the West had extremely good intelligence and was able to astonish and demoralize Qaddafi by the amount it knew about his secret programs. Added to this, and acting cumulatively over time, was the adamant persistence of the Scottish courts in the matter of the Lockerbie atrocity. (Don't mess with Scottish law, a maxim imperfectly understood by the sort of people who style themselves "king of kings.") Third, and very important in the timing, was Qaddafi's abject fear at watching the fate of Saddam Hussein. This has been amply reconfirmed by many Libyan officials in the hearing of many of my friends. He did, after all, approach George W. Bush and Tony Blair, not the United Nations. So now Qaddafi's stockpiles are under lock and key in Oak Ridge, Tenn. —their trace elements having successfully incriminated the A.Q. Khan network in Pakistan—and who can conceivably wish it had been otherwise?


In other words, had Saddam not been removed from power, the entire Middle East might well have sustained the status quo. In some sense, the Neo-Con dream has come true, or, as one of President Obama's mentors once quipped, "America's chickens (insert dramatic pause) have come home to roost!"
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Post 29 Mar 2011, 11:58 am

The Israeli ambassador to the US made a similar point in today's WSJ. Qaddafi gave up the bomb because of the US invasion of Iraq. How would this all have played out if Qaddafi managed to go nuclear from 2004 to 2011. It seems like he would press the button if he had to, or even if he was about to be overthrown. I don't think he cares about anyone but himself.

That of course raises the question of Iran. If they do get the bomb, the whole equation really does change.

By the way, my point #2 is worth discussing. As with most democracies, Israeli politics are played at the 50 yard line. The hard liners dominate now because of fear of Iran. They are 3 countries away, but they also have influence over Syria, Hezbollah (Lebanon), and Hamas. Those are their 3 client 'states" if you will. For the Israeli's to relax on the west bank, they need to calm down vis-a-vis Iran. There are 30% who will always be hardliners, and 30% who will always want a 2 state solution. But to get the israeli center to see opportunity in all of this instead of the danger, you have to win the middle which means weakening Iran substantially. Good luck with that.
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Post 29 Mar 2011, 5:10 pm

ray
That of course raises the question of Iran. If they do get the bomb, the whole equation really does change

It also changes if the ongoing unrest in Iran eventually leads to a successful uprising against the mullahs. And thats as likely as a successful nuclear arms program.
Anyone care to credit the Iranian attempts at revolutionary change to Iraq?

By the way: NATO without the US could have secured the skies over Libya. It was simply a wish to do so without casualties that required Cruise Missiles. And a wish to do so quickly which required a larger air fleet. And a wish to do so inexpensively....as military expenditures are more closely budeted elsewhere.
NATO is also more likely to plan and execute close support air strikes with the Rebels
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Post 29 Mar 2011, 5:40 pm

rayI think you have to take a step back to evaluate Obama's performance in the Middle East. If you can build a continuum of success and failure, I would describe success as:

1. greater democracy
2. decline of Iranian power (which is the key to israeli cooperation in the West Bank)
3. reduced blood shed
4. flowing oil
5. better relations between the west and the Muslim world
6. Limited cost for the west (given our budgetary situations


Obama's performance? US policy has affected the growth of democracy positively? Really?
1. Since US policy supported the governments of Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen and 18 other monarchies or tyrannies for so long, haven't they been working against democracy oh so many years? Including Obama?
Even granting that Iraq resulted in the imposition of a sort of working democracy, US policy in all the rest of the middle east did not actively promote democracy. Obama's speeches aside.
The whole policy has been based upon keeping the oil flowing and supporting Israel. And that has meant effectively working against democracy.
2. The greatest hope for declining Iranian "aggression, is the development of the Iranian democracy past its current incarnation. The great hope there has little to do with outside policies.(The trade embargo excepted) Maybe a lot to do with outside influences of culture, economy and communication.
3. The intervention in Libya has probably reduced blood shed. But we won't know till the resolution of events. And maybe not even then. But it did stop a bloodbath inititally.
4. Oil still flows. Treasure still flows into the coffers of tyrants. Is this good? Well, I suppose the sudden disruption oil would be worse, but democracies pump oil out of the ground as well as despotic regimes. And they tend to use the money better. Why the Scots have nearly raised their nation from third world status.
5. Better relations? Stop helping prop up the despots and the people will not disappoint. Their governments will generally act in the best interests of their own and usually that means peace and the development of the economy. Again, nothing over the last 40 years has helped that, including anything Obama has done. Except perhaps his symbolic speeches.
6. Limited Cost? Has it cost anything to let Egypt and Tunisia erupt? The Libyan intervention isn't that expensive so I guess Obama has been frugal. By comparison Bush threw money away. Literally.
I don't think you can really look at the last 2 and half Obama years and judge that anything significant has been added to the sudden Arab Awakening. I understand that Iraq is pointed to as an example but even Hitchens isn't claiming it was an overt example. It was after all, imposed. I'm sure that the Arabs who march for democracy emulate many other events and people. After all, they aren't waiting to be liberated. As a result, when they do succeed it will be a greater reward, and probably suceed better than Iraq has as an occupied nation who had democracy imposed upon. (Partly because of the basic nature of Iraq as a dysfuntional tripartitie state and partly because democracy imposed has less credibility with the people.)
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Post 29 Mar 2011, 5:50 pm

Exactly, cruise missiles are nice, VERY nice, but not crucial. So the French beg us to join and that's ok but when we beg France to join, they say no and denounce the US for doing ...the same damned thing.
And Ricky, maybe I'm reading what you said wrong (I must be) It sounds like you claim this is less expensive because the US can absorb the expense because our military budget is less closely budgeted?
...we can afford another war and others are relying on the US to take more than it's share? (those cruise missiles are freaking expensive)
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Post 29 Mar 2011, 10:34 pm

Minister X wrote:
Faxmonkey wrote:In Iraq you guys let the Shia rebells be killed after Desert Storm without so much as blinking.

That's not entirely fair. More than a few voices here were raised in outrage. On the other hand, I don't recall any of our European allies complaining.


Ok, i stand corrected. It just wanted to point out some major differences between the two situations.
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Post 30 Mar 2011, 3:14 am

Minister X wrote:
Faxmonkey wrote:In Iraq you guys let the Shia rebells be killed after Desert Storm without so much as blinking.

That's not entirely fair. More than a few voices here were raised in outrage. On the other hand, I don't recall any of our European allies complaining.
Well, we did. That's why the UK and France helped you to set up the No Fly Zone in the South.
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Post 30 Mar 2011, 3:22 am

Doctor Fate wrote:I'll be waiting on the retraction. :laugh:
Yeah, the mighty Eritrea joined up in Iraq. How could we forget the crucial part they played...

It is early yet, but we have allies who previously refused to help in Iraq, and have like France, greater capacity. We are not seeing massive worldwide opposition to the actions, and despite my misgivings, that does suggest that it's not seen as quite so divisive.

The point was that by convincing the UN, there's come likely correlation to a more convincing case. It's not simply that the UN is supposed

Beyond that, Bush went to the UN--and had more authority to do what he did than Obama does. How does a "no-fly zone" morph into attacking ground troops in a few days?
Why don't you quote or reference UN1973? It goes further than a no-fly zone, allowing actions to protect civilians from attack, which was the reasoning for attacking those columns of tanks that had been shelling Benghazi.

UN1441 does not explicitly allow the use of force. It was a very tedious legal argument as to whether it could, and basically which ever side you fall on determines how you view the law.. UN1973 is explicit.

Simple fact checking, Steve, and less blather.
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Post 30 Mar 2011, 3:24 am

Ray Jay wrote:The Israeli ambassador to the US made a similar point in today's WSJ. Qaddafi gave up the bomb because of the US invasion of Iraq.
Did he though? Was he even getting close to having the bomb? Or was there a lot of misinformation about? I have to say I found the whole episode quite odd. Almost as if Gadaffi was lying (say it ain't so!) about his capabilities all along.
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Post 30 Mar 2011, 4:54 am

danivon wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:The Israeli ambassador to the US made a similar point in today's WSJ. Qaddafi gave up the bomb because of the US invasion of Iraq.
Did he though? Was he even getting close to having the bomb? Or was there a lot of misinformation about? I have to say I found the whole episode quite odd. Almost as if Gadaffi was lying (say it ain't so!) about his capabilities all along.


Fair point.
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Post 30 Mar 2011, 5:04 am

rickyp wrote:ray
... NATO without the US could have secured the skies over Libya. It was simply a wish to do so without casualties that required Cruise Missiles. And a wish to do so quickly which required a larger air fleet. And a wish to do so inexpensively....as military expenditures are more closely budeted elsewhere.
NATO is also more likely to plan and execute close support air strikes with the Rebels


It was about the US having looser budgets?

The Libyan troops were closing in on the rebels. The west had to act immediately to avoid a massacre. Only the US had the command and control capabilities when they needed them. It's very nice that NATO can take the ball now, 2 weeks into the war. But that still makes the US the indispensable partner. (I also wonder how NATO does this without US support. My recollection is that more than 50% of NATO costs are incurred by the US.)

My comment was that cruise missiles were essential. Tom retorted that they were "nice". He's modified that to "VERY nice". We've all agreed that they potentially saved lives. Can we compromise on extremely important (especially for French pilots). Whether we capitalize "extremely" is up to you.
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Post 30 Mar 2011, 6:14 am

and French soldiers would have been VERY nice in Iraq as well, the extra numbers could have also saved US lives. So it seems French lives are worth more than US lives?
...I don't buy it, nor do I buy the US can afford it because we are looser with our military budget.

I also don't buy the whole stopping a massacre nonsense
...did we (the world in general) care about Darfur? Did we care about Iraq when they gassed the Kurds? Rwanda? Cambodia under Pol Pot?
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Post 30 Mar 2011, 6:20 am

ray
It was about the US having looser budgets?

You make it sound kind of silly when you say it that way.... :wink:
Actually though when you consider that the US has a military budget equal to the entire rest of the world combined ...the statement is true.
Where a mission might cost the same for the UK and the US in Libya...it would comparatively be enormous to the UK or France but tiny to the US.
In a time when the UK and most European powers are attempting to rein in spending, including military, it is a more difficult expense for the Euros. Military is also a more politically difficult expense item in most of the Euoropean community. You don't see very many US politicians of any stripe talking about reining in the defence budget. (Kucinich and the Pauls duly noted.)
Within the massive US military budget, the increased expense in LIbya won't be as noticable as the expenditure in allies budgets... . (Note increased. The additional cost might be spent muniitions and increased transport costs, but maintaining the units even if all they are doing is training requires a base budget anyway.)
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Post 30 Mar 2011, 6:33 am

tom
and French soldiers would have been VERY nice in Iraq as well, the extra numbers could have also saved US lives. So it seems French lives are worth more than US lives

Or maybe the French just valued their soldiers lives and their treasurey more when considering the prospect of the invasion and the suspect evidence they were presented ?
The invasion of Iraq was to result in a very difficult occupation, thousands of lives lost, enormous treasure expended and the end result a former enemy of Iran becoming Iran's BFFs - doesn't it seem like the french might have been wise to stay away?
I'm pretty sure that if you asked most Americans , "If we turned back the clock and we had a " do over " on Iraq would you invade or continue a no-fly zone?" that the cost of the adventure would have everyone choose the nofly zone. Would you?
Moreover, the reasons that the French and many others didn't get involved were pretty clear. In LIbya, so far, no one has asked anyone for the kind of commitment that was made when Iraq was invaded. And face it, if Bush had told the US that we'll be there for a decade and it'll cost thousands of lives and trillions of dollars , there would have been greater domestic opposition. There certainly is large oposition to American invasion in Libya isn't there?
Don't blame the french or anyone else for being prescient. Or sceptical.
A lot of countries that wouldn't commit to the folly of Iraq signed on in Afghanistan, by the way. The case made for that action was clearer and more acceptable to most...
Americans owe a debt of gratitude to the French that goes back to Yorktown. Now that was an intervention.