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Post 30 Jan 2011, 11:53 am

Some posting about Egypt has been done in a thread that was begun about Tunisia, and it's turned into a diffuse argument of some sort. Maybe we can do better here.

As noted elsewhere and in THIS article in today's NYT, the Egyptian military is the most widely respected institution in the country. It was the "Free Officers" movement within the military that spearheaded Egypt's last revolution. Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak all were educated in the military academy. The same is true of Omar Suleiman, the spy chief Mubarak just named as apparent successor, but not Mohamed ElBaradei, a possible rival for power. Also, Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak and Suleiman were all born into poor or lower middle-class families; not so ElBaradei, whose father was a very prominent lawyer.

The change of system which took place in the 1950s began with a relatively bloodless military coup, and continued for five years or so, concluding when Nasser officially formed the political party that would win all following elections (to this day). In the interim there were the exile of King Farouk; friction between revolutionary secular socialists and communists (with communist-led workers' riots); over half a year of "street riots, clashes, arson, and civil tumult"; land "reform" whereby the socialist Free Officers took the land of the royals, Jews, Greeks, and Copts for themselves and their close supporters; miscellaneous assassinations and executions; the outlawing of the Muslim Brotherhood; the Suez Crisis; some ethnic cleansing; and assorted "assaults, robberies, rapes, or murder".

Now it might be tempting to say that such events, which few alive can remember, have little or no relevance to what's taking place today. But in a very real sense the "republican" revolution was not only never completed, it continued to be actively fought year after year right up to the present. The regime has always had to use revolutionary tactics (i.e. violence and extra-legal procedures) against those it perceived as threats, including Islamists and democrats. The regime has rigidly controlled the formation and activities of political parties and thus, despite holding elections, has never allowed Egypt to emerge from what might politely be called "emergency" circumstances. And as so often happens when a regime is able to avoid democratic pressures and transparency, corruption is rampant.

The revolution of the 1950s was in some senses a response to the fact that political power was being exercised for purposes largely unrelated to the needs and aspirations of the people of Egypt. Although the revolution was technically successful, the ends of the employment of political power did not shift substantially toward the people.

[One of the beneficiaries of the shift was the military, and I find it a bit ironic that the military attained such a position of respect among the masses. The Egyptian Armed Forces are "influential in business, engaging in road and housing construction, consumer goods and resort management." But there's universal conscription and the military academies are among the more egalitarian of public institutions.]

The people of Egypt today still feel, it seems, that political power has not been exercised simply for the public good. (They are, of course, quite correct.) Something is certainly going to change. But is Egypt any more prepared today than they were 55 years ago to develop a system truly responsive to the needs of the people? Will the military end up spearheading this revolution as well, and if so will it do any better? I don't know. What are your thoughts?
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Post 30 Jan 2011, 4:18 pm

One of the reasons the military is admired is that it is large. This makes it a major employer, and for many poor a military pay check is often the first steady employment.... So a lot of people have relatives in the ranks as well...
The Egyptian military has never turned on civilians either....
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Post 01 Feb 2011, 9:00 am

I can't find the button that starts a new thread so I'll mention this here for now:

AP: Jordan's king fires Cabinet amid protests
AP: Assad says Syria immune from unrest roiling Egypt
AP: Syrians call for protests on Facebook and Twitter

Let's keep an eye on these developments. Possible candidates for countries to appear in headlines like these within a week: Libya? Morocco? Kuwait? Sudan? Pakistan???
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Post 01 Feb 2011, 9:08 am

rickyp wrote:One of the reasons the military is admired is that it is large. This makes it a major employer, and for many poor a military pay check is often the first steady employment.... So a lot of people have relatives in the ranks as well...
The Egyptian military has never turned on civilians either....


Large = admired?

I think it's more complex than that.
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Post 01 Feb 2011, 10:42 am

Angry Demonstration In Yemen Set For Thursday

The opposition in Yemen has announced a demonstration of rage for February 3, to feature slogans against extending the term of Yemen President Ali Abdallah Saleh and against inheriting the regime.

The ruling party has called on its supporters to hold a counter-demonstration.
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Post 01 Feb 2011, 8:06 pm

[/empire]
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Post 01 Feb 2011, 11:36 pm

I can't help but wonder if Fethullah Gulen's influence is at play within Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood this past week? My money's riding on it. Come to think of it, so is his.

On Gulen....http://sheikyermami.com/2009/04/13/the-fethullah-gulen-movement-infiltration-on-a-grand-scale/
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Post 02 Feb 2011, 4:31 pm

It's hard to estimate the popularity of the MB in Egypt. However, there are reports that demonstrators have been trying to distance themselves from them.

We are now entering a very weird phase. Mubarak has played a canny card ("I'll stick around for 8 months"). It's odd, because one grievance was based on the idea that he would stand down and his son would be pushed forward as the NDP candidate. He also seems to have had the thugs and supporters sent in to try and disrupt things without using the army.

Not sure that anyone outside Egypt can influence things much (not for the good, anyway)
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Post 03 Feb 2011, 9:29 am

This morning's news is not good. Journalists are being attacked by Mubarak supporters and are being "rounded up" by the military. It's not yet clear if the military is engaging in anti-press-freedom activities or just seeking to protect journalists from violence. If the latter, it would be something of a first.

Regarding the MB, two reports of interest: 1) VID and TRANSCRIPT of interview with Muhammad Ghanem, Muslim Brotherhood representative in London, which aired on Al-Alam TV on January 30. 2) REPORT at Russian news agency Ria Novosty site of interview of MB deputy leader Rashad al-Bayoumi with NHK TV. In the first item, Ghanem says, "the next step must be one of civil disobedience. This civil disobedience will generate strife among the Egyptians. This disobedience must include halting passage through the Suez Canal, stopping the supply of petroleum and natural gas to Israel, and preparing for war with Israel." In the second, al-Bayoumi says, "After President Mubarak steps down and a provisional government is formed, there is a need to dissolve the peace treaty with Israel." A third REPORT, this time of an interview with Egyptian Islamist Yasser Tawfiq Ali El-Sirri, who is not a member of MB, on Al-Hiwar TV, is of another call to close the canal. (I love how the "journalist" doing the interview keeps asking for details on how to accomplish the closure, as if being sure the Egyptians get their instructions right is more important than asking the jihadi why he wants the canal closed.)

In thinking broadly about Egypt this morning I got to wondering what role university students were playing in the uprising/revolution. They've been the core and main catalyst in Iran and the world over are generally in the vanguard of populist efforts to secure freedoms. What's the story in Egypt? I used google-news and searched on "egypt university" and "al azhar" and got plenty of news stories, but not a single one about Egyptian university students' involvement in the uprising. Isn't that curious? I'm surprised.
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Post 03 Feb 2011, 2:48 pm

From the sound of people being interviewed, they seem young, idealistic, educated and eloquent. A fair few students I would imagine, as well as graduates.

Today I heard an interview with a demonstrator who was a judge.

On the recent developments, the worrying thing is that the military are still on the fence. Most of the army are conscripts and so could well be pretty well-disposed to the people protesting. Which means that the wiser officers will not be keen to pass down orders to clear demonstrators with force. On the other hand the military has done very well out of NDP rule.

Looks like tonight and tomorrow will be more contentious - when people leave Friday prayers they could come out to swell the demonstrations, or they could just go home and hunker down.
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Post 03 Feb 2011, 2:59 pm

Minister X wrote: (I love how the "journalist" doing the interview keeps asking for details on how to accomplish the closure, as if being sure the Egyptians get their instructions right is more important than asking the jihadi why he wants the canal closed.)
Actually the 'how' is pretty important. It's still open now, and people will not want to see it closed as it's pretty important to Egypt's economy. The military will not stand by and let the MB clog up or disable the nation's major trading asset.

We can all find extremists of the MB who have great hopes that this will lead to them taking power. However, Egypt is not Iran. Khomeini was lauded and admired for years while in exile, and was always the expected leader of the revolution. The other groups joined the Islamists to help remove the Shah. In Egypt, it looks much more like it's the MB trying to hitch a ride on dissent from other quarters.

Now, that doesn't mean that what results won't be less secular than before, but it doesn't have to mean a rogue state.
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Post 04 Feb 2011, 4:37 am

Check out Roger Simon's phone interview with a young Egyptian blogger (sandmonkey...his own moniker).

http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/

that kid's been on the ground for some of the biggest events thus far.
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Post 04 Feb 2011, 3:04 pm

He's been picked up by many media outlets. I hope he's right - it certainly seems that the MB have not actually been able to exert much presence in the demos. We saw Christians guarding Muslims while they prayed in Alexandria, and a local Catholic cardinal alongside an Imam. A few weeks ago there was violence aimed at Copts. What was not so well reported at the time was that muslims in the community acted to protect them.

Anyway, let us hope that those Abrams tanks are not used against the people.
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Post 05 Feb 2011, 11:56 am

About the attack on the Copts. You'll recall the Coptic demonstrations that took place immediately afterward. I believe the at the center of the protests were the corrupt Egyptian police and the Copt's complete lack of recourse in bringing the perpetrators to justice.

The Copts were joined by many Muslims in those protests immediately following the bombings. All were furious at the lack of accountability on the part of the police/government.

As we begin to learn the history behind the events leading up to the uprising, I wonder what role, if any, the bombing of the Coptic Church and subsequent protests played.

Maybe some of you have a better handle on this?
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Post 06 Feb 2011, 5:29 am

Not much of one. The situation is confusing at best. All I will say is that Mubarak has a large interest in suggesting that without him the MB would take over.