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Post 05 Nov 2012, 10:55 pm

Win or lose how can the GOP continue to alienate the non-white vote? The percentage of white voters in presidential elections has declined from 87 percent to 74 percent from 1992 to 2008--one would expect a further decline this year Can the GOP get away from its policies that call for stricter immigration controls ( and alienate a substantial percentage of white voters)? Changing demographics indicate that the GOP must change at least with regard to future elections if it wants to contend for the presidency
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Post 05 Nov 2012, 10:59 pm

They will, with all of the arrogance they can muster, continue to alientate anyone and everyone who does not reflect conservative values as they understand them. That is their future and you can count on it.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 9:15 am

freeman2 wrote:Win or lose how can the GOP continue to alienate the non-white vote?


Bah. The "non-white" vote is not monolithic. Watch this election. Obama will lose some black votes because of gay marriage. He may approach the same percentage, but some will stay home. This is an issue for black Christians.

If they win, I think you will see comprehensive immigration reform passed. It won't be the DREAM Act (which is pretty unrealistic), but they will address it.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 10:40 am

I think the GOP is not catering to the "non-white" vote. That is the issue for the GOP. They think that ALL are created equal, and ALL have the same rights and responsibilities to be treated equally. You do not give any segment of society any benefits without giving it to all.

If that is alienation, so be it.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 10:40 am

I think it's a little patronising to assume that latinos are all staunchly in favour of an open-door immigration policy to the extent that it will determine their support at every election. Of course they're going to be more inclined this way, but 2nd and 3rd generation latino voters might very well feel that pulling up the drawbridge would be in their own best interests. Many latinos are also staunch Catholics, and should be attracted to the Republican message on social issues. I think the reason Republicans are struggling with the latino vote is less down to their actual policy positions and more down to the fact that many Republicans in border states give the impression of being actively hostile to latinos, meaning there's a big trust issue there. It's not insurmountable though, there are plenty of Republicans who have established a good relationship with the latino community (Jeb Bush for example) so I don't think youcan just assume they'll always break for the Dems in such huge numbers.

The black vote is more difficult of course, but blacks have voted Democrat in overwhelming numbers for decades now, and they were always going to come out in force to support the first ever black President.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 11:39 am

Sassenach wrote:I think it's a little patronising to assume that latinos are all staunchly in favour of an open-door immigration policy to the extent that it will determine their support at every election. Of course they're going to be more inclined this way, but 2nd and 3rd generation latino voters might very well feel that pulling up the drawbridge would be in their own best interests. Many latinos are also staunch Catholics, and should be attracted to the Republican message on social issues. I think the reason Republicans are struggling with the latino vote is less down to their actual policy positions and more down to the fact that many Republicans in border states give the impression of being actively hostile to latinos, meaning there's a big trust issue there. It's not insurmountable though, there are plenty of Republicans who have established a good relationship with the latino community (Jeb Bush for example) so I don't think youcan just assume they'll always break for the Dems in such huge numbers.


Most people don't know just how good Jeb's relationship is with Latinos. It's so good, it's like he is married to a Mexican national (she was). I thought he should have run this time--and would have if he had a different last name.

I think we will see a gradual, er, migration of Latinos to the GOP.

The reasons comprehensive immigration reform has not been done are many. Among them: Obama made no effort; Bush did, but his effort forged a coalition of the center to block it; the DREAM act is a veritable free pass for illegals and so would have encouraged more of them to come here.

I think Romney will, if elected, put forth a measured and detailed solution. If we do this one part at a time, it can get done.

Culturally, the Democrats are as far removed from the (mostly) Catholic faith most Latinos practice as they could possibly be. It is hardcore Democrats who are pushing the social issues. They will, eventually, help push Latinos into the GOP.

The black vote is more difficult of course, but blacks have voted Democrat in overwhelming numbers for decades now, and they were always going to come out in force to support the first ever black President.


I believe there will be fewer (in total) this time because of his social positions. Some black preachers have actually come out against him. It's a bit shocking (and heartening).

Voting on race should NEVER be "okay."
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 11:57 am

Sass put his finger on the real issue--the belief among many Latinos that Republicans are catering to the prejudices of a certain part of the Republican Party. It is going to take more than Jeb Bush to heal the damage that has been done.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 12:14 pm

freeman2 wrote:Sass put his finger on the real issue--the belief among many Latinos that Republicans are catering to the prejudices of a certain part of the Republican Party. It is going to take more than Jeb Bush to heal the damage that has been done.


Right. Democrats are taking care of that for us.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 12:48 pm

It'll take a while, but it should happen in the end. It's natural that latinos would favour the Democrats because they tend more often to be among the lowest socio-economic strata and so it makes sense for them to support the party that's more closely aligned with their interests. I don't see why that should always be the case though. Once the immigration issue is settled one way or the other then eventually Republicans will have to come to an accommodation with the latino community, because if they don't then the likes of Arizona and even Texas may become swing states.

It would be wrong to just assume that the current Republican party that seems to have been taken over by extremists will only stay the same or get worse. America is a two-party polity and one party can't just forever place themselves outside of the mainstream.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 1:19 pm

Sassenach wrote:It would be wrong to just assume that the current Republican party that seems to have been taken over by extremists will only stay the same or get worse. America is a two-party polity and one party can't just forever place themselves outside of the mainstream.


Extremists? How about someone who thinks there should be no restrictions on abortion whatsoever? He's running for President and has a unique name . . . and he's not a Mormon.

The TEA Party is not going away until the deficits go away. And, it's hurting the GOP so much in border States that . . . oh, what's that? It's sending a Senator from Texas by the last name of Cruz?

Immigration is not that complex. It just takes a leader, which is why Obama got nowhere.

It has to be done in steps and it will be. The TEA Party is not anti-immigrant; it is anti-illegal immigration. It's really not that hard.

Personally, I'd love to see it tied in with voting reform. Use one of Gingrich's ideas--the tamper-proof Social Security card and let's get it done.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 1:22 pm

There are two trends. One is for 'non-whites' (mainly 'latinos') to move away from the habit of backing the Democrats and towards the Republicans. That is not unexpected - as people from immigrant communities settle and their descendants become part of the society, there will be a pattern of integration and people will climb up the class structure. Equally, the issues for new immigrants are not the same as those for their kids, and while the Democrats may be good at the former, they are not necessarily so good on the latter.

The other trend, however, is for the 'non-white' population to grow as a proportion of the overall total. Both parties are going to have to get used to the idea that at some point, whites won't be the largest group in US society. Before that happens, while still being a majority 'white' country, it will still be the case that winning non-white votes will become more important. I expect to see politicians of both parties pick up on this (especially if they come from those non-white communities) and for them to come up with different policies and messages accordingly. That may or may not be a good thing, depending on how they do it.

For black voters, the main difference is that they are not really an immigrant community, and their current allegiance to the Democrats is mainly based on memory of the Civil Rights period. Before that time and before the 'Dixiecrats' slid across the aisle, black voters would largely have voted Republican (based on memory of Lincoln and the post-civil war period). The history of the African American community is very different. Of course, an increasing proportion of black Americans are not descended from the slaves / indentured servants of the 19th Century, but are immigrants from Africa and elsewhere, and so won't have the same historical party allegiance.

However, just as it is a generalisation to think that Latinos are all about immigration, it's the same thing to assume that as Catholics they'd be all about 'moral' issues like gay marriage and abortion. Quite a few blue collar Democrats are also Catholic, and increasingly, the actual Catholic people are being alienated from the Church and it's political pronouncements.

In short, the GOP will find itself gaining 'non-white' support, and won't disappear, but it won't necessarily mean that they'll move en masse.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 1:46 pm

danivon wrote:However, just as it is a generalisation to think that Latinos are all about immigration, it's the same thing to assume that as Catholics they'd be all about 'moral' issues like gay marriage and abortion. Quite a few blue collar Democrats are also Catholic, and increasingly, the actual Catholic people are being alienated from the Church and it's political pronouncements.


I don't think this is really the case in the Latino community. They tend to be very old-fashioned in this regard.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 2:06 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:I don't think this is really the case in the Latino community. They tend to be very old-fashioned in this regard.
As I said, it will alter over time, as people in the community move from being immigrants from a strongly Catholic society to a modern western secular nation.

Every large immigrant community to the USA, from the Germans, Italians, Chinese to the Irish started out more 'old fashioned' than they ended up.

Besides, the Catholic Church is quite good at alienating people sometimes. It likes to make top-down pronouncements, which the laiety tend to ignore. Maybe the Latino community are currently more open to such treatment and go along with it, but over time it will modify.
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 7:47 pm

Since 1964 the Republicans have had the South. Drop em!
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Post 06 Nov 2012, 11:37 pm

Obama got 80 percent of the non-white vote, but only 40 percent of the white vote.