Sassenach wrote:I think it's a little patronising to assume that latinos are all staunchly in favour of an open-door immigration policy to the extent that it will determine their support at every election. Of course they're going to be more inclined this way, but 2nd and 3rd generation latino voters might very well feel that pulling up the drawbridge would be in their own best interests. Many latinos are also staunch Catholics, and should be attracted to the Republican message on social issues. I think the reason Republicans are struggling with the latino vote is less down to their actual policy positions and more down to the fact that many Republicans in border states give the impression of being actively hostile to latinos, meaning there's a big trust issue there. It's not insurmountable though, there are plenty of Republicans who have established a good relationship with the latino community (Jeb Bush for example) so I don't think youcan just assume they'll always break for the Dems in such huge numbers.
Most people don't know just how good Jeb's relationship is with Latinos. It's so good, it's like he is married to a Mexican national (she was). I thought he should have run this time--and would have if he had a different last name.
I think we will see a gradual, er, migration of Latinos to the GOP.
The reasons comprehensive immigration reform has not been done are many. Among them: Obama made no effort; Bush did, but his effort forged a coalition of the center to block it; the DREAM act is a veritable free pass for illegals and so would have encouraged more of them to come here.
I think Romney will, if elected, put forth a measured and detailed solution. If we do this one part at a time, it can get done.
Culturally, the Democrats are as far removed from the (mostly) Catholic faith most Latinos practice as they could possibly be. It is hardcore Democrats who are pushing the social issues. They will, eventually, help push Latinos into the GOP.
The black vote is more difficult of course, but blacks have voted Democrat in overwhelming numbers for decades now, and they were always going to come out in force to support the first ever black President.
I believe there will be fewer (in total) this time because of his social positions. Some black preachers have actually come out against him. It's a bit shocking (and heartening).
Voting on race should NEVER be "okay."