Join In On The Action "Register Here" To View The Forums

Already a Member Login Here

Board index Forum Index
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4900
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 05 Nov 2020, 6:46 am

rickyp wrote:The Senate run off in Georgia in January could be the difference between a 50/50 Senate and republican majority... That should be interesting. Good time to own tv stations in Georgia.


I think it will end up 51R/49D or 52R/48D but that can still be a big difference for swing senators. No doubt this will be the most expensive Senate race in US history. The ideological divide is huge. Also, the amount of money riding on this for all sorts of special interests is staggering.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11176
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 05 Nov 2020, 7:38 am

danivon
Seems some States were blocked from starting to count absentee/early ballots, or even to do the checking processes until the polls closed, meaning that there are indeed large bundles of uncounted votes to wade through.


In most states counting of absentee and military ballots usually goes on well past election day. In the past that hasn't been controversial.
However, the US is an anomaly amongst democracies in that there is no central independent electoral beau acracy (commission ) that conducts elections. So you end up with 51 sets of election rules...
The complexity and resulting confusion, fueled by partisan maneuvering at the state level, usually intended to suppress votes from certain constituencies, is a true carnival.
User avatar
Administrator
 
Posts: 7059
Joined: 26 Jun 2000, 1:13 pm

Post 05 Nov 2020, 9:08 am

Call me old-fashioned, but I think every vote (including absentee!) should be received and counted the night of election. I ensured mine on time was regardless of where I was (EVEN COSTA RICA). If you can get it there on time, well that's on you.

Personal responsibility for something important.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 3385
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 05 Nov 2020, 11:44 am

We are dealing with an unprecedented number of absentee ballots due to Covid. And by state law some states were not able to start counting until election day (including Pennsylvania). I imagine that states will be better at doing this next time around.

Brad's opinion that ballots should all be counted on election day nicely coincides with Trump's wishes and Republican interests. How shocking!

It will be done by Friday at the latest. And nothing negative is going to happen because we had to wait a few days for the results. Obviously, I am biased I suppose but I just cannot see a reasonable argument as to why a ballot submitted by election day should not be counted. And three days after election day to receive them seems reasonable (though I think ballots received after Election Day will have a de minimis impact on the election). Almost certainly the ballots that will decide the election were received by election day and you cant disenfranchise voters because states cant count all the votes on election day.
User avatar
Administrator
 
Posts: 7059
Joined: 26 Jun 2000, 1:13 pm

Post 05 Nov 2020, 12:00 pm

Needless shot, Freeman. My views were mine before Trump. Hence why I sent absentee before Trump existed politically.

I would rather have an honest election that Biden wins, than a dishonest election that Trump wins.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11176
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 05 Nov 2020, 1:17 pm

bbauska
Call me old-fashioned, but I think every vote (including absentee!) should be received and counted the night of election.


That has rarely been the case in US elections...so you are yearning for something that hasn't existed. No state ever reports final results on election night, and no state is legally expected to.
Military ballots, in particular, have often arrived after elections...
In some states, the election rules constrained processing of mail in ballots until election day. (Forget counting they couldn't even certify them.)

Provisional ballots are, in many states, not considered until after all other ballots have been counted and usually means after election day.

On election night in 2018, it wasn’t clear who had won governor’s races in Florida, Georgia and Wisconsin; Senate races in Arizona and Florida; and a slew of House races in California, Georgia, New York, Texas and Utah. While there were recounts and legal disputes in a handful of these races, the uncertainty in most places had nothing to do with changing or challenging the counts — it just took time to finish counting.

If the tallies had been frozen at midnight, even many in-person votes would not have been counted. And the ballots tallied after Election Day did not uniformly benefit one party.


bbauska
Personal responsibility for something important.


A person can't be responsible if they have mailed a ballot but the USPS takes an inordinate amount of time to deliver the mail. (Apparently by design)
A person can't be responsible if they make every attempt to vote but find the waiting lines at the voting booth extend for longer than the time allotted.
A person can't be responsible if the state voting regulations demand that mail in and absentee ballots must be counted only after in person ballots have been counted.
User avatar
Administrator
 
Posts: 7059
Joined: 26 Jun 2000, 1:13 pm

Post 05 Nov 2020, 1:28 pm

And you, RickyP, have your own opinion as well.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 15969
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 06 Nov 2020, 1:48 am

bbauska wrote:Call me old-fashioned, but I think every vote (including absentee!) should be received and counted the night of election. I ensured mine on time was regardless of where I was (EVEN COSTA RICA). If you can get it there on time, well that's on you.

Personal responsibility for something important.
Yes. but that would mean many military service personnel would lose their votes.

It would help if your USPS wasn't appalling, so people could trust that their mail was delivered on time (or at all - isn't it estimated that 300,000 votes are lost in the system somewhere?)

And yes, it would also be good if the count could be completed in a few hours once the votes received. Which means letting the votes that arrive early be at least verified in advance. The US is slower in part because there are several concurrent elections going on at once, but also I think there are a lot of extra processes that aren't needed.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 15969
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 06 Nov 2020, 1:56 am

bbauska wrote:And you, RickyP, have your own opinion as well.

He was also presenting facts.

Some states did indeed rule that in person ballots had to be counted first, which will break up the process and slow it down. Some states also didn't allow the starting of verification for absentee ballots either. That slows things down considerably (it takes a while longer to check signatures and cross-check forms that it does to count the actual voting paper).
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11176
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 06 Nov 2020, 12:32 pm

Here’s why North Carolina’s election results won’t be final for another week
In North Carolina, elections officials are working through the remaining ballots and will continue to process and count those delivered by the Postal Service through Nov. 12, as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. Though Trump is correct that he held a nearly 77,000-vote lead in the state, the race is too early to call with up to 116,000 mail ballots left to count, as well as the potential of thousands of provisional ballots
.
With very few exceptions, North Carolina’s election results will not change until November 12 or 13, when all mail-in ballots are received and counted by each county,” Brinson Bell said.



https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/why-n ... SGMMK2TNM/
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 3385
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 07 Nov 2020, 3:31 pm

Not to be Nostradamus or anything...but I predict Biden is going to win!
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 15969
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 08 Nov 2020, 2:11 am

freeman3 wrote:Not to be Nostradamus or anything...but I predict Biden is going to win!
on course for 306 EC votes
User avatar
Dignitary
 
Posts: 3365
Joined: 02 Oct 2000, 9:01 am

Post 17 Nov 2020, 1:49 pm

Not too shabby. Missed GA and NC, but they cancel each other out in the EC, or just about. Let me know if you have other questions about the future.


geojanes wrote:Altering my map. Wisconsin and NC go Biden. The Fla gov delivers Florida to Trump:

Image

The Trump supporters out in their cars and flags may be hurting the few swing votes out there. They look nuts. You may think the same about ANTIFA, but they're not waiving Biden flags. Looks more and more like a cult.

Trump will continue to do everything possible to create chaos after he loses, and the next couple of months will be crazy.

I continue to worry about the long-term health of the nation. If he loses, what happens to the Trump clan? Do we think that they're just going to quietly move out of the spotlight come Jan 2021? They will do everything they can to sow unrest probably for the rest of their lives. My concern goes way beyond politics and policies, and into stability.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11176
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 18 Nov 2020, 8:20 am

You win.
And this:

Trump will continue to do everything possible to create chaos after he loses, and the next couple of months will be crazy.


is spot on.

I continue to worry about the long-term health of the nation. If he loses, what happens to the Trump clan?


I think he'll move to extreme media like OAN, and Fox will start to change its point of view and reporting. Their news division already has...
OAN will draw viewers of some of the Fox opinion shows away ... and perhaps ratings will see that line up changed to more reasonable personalities with a more balanced approach. That will be healthy.
OAN won't be. However here's what I think happens.
Melania divorces Donald and moves ... perhaps to the UK?
NY charges the Trumps with fraud and other financial crimes. Legal fight goes on for 2 years.
Deutsche Bank calls in its loan, creating financial havoc for Trump and a fire sale of assets. The Scottish investigation into money laundering may also bear fruit and further strain Trump.
A much diminished Trump dies in two or 3 years from the strain of it all....and a life of poor habits.
The Eric and Don spend their time on the far right attempting to replicate their fathers grifts among the deluded viewers of OAN and Infowars. Most of the US tires of their dance.
The Kushners recede into the back ground, as their fortunes shrink. If Kushner also faces charges of financial crimes, that may happen quickly, though his connections to the Arab world may prove helpful to his endeavors.
Senator Rubio rises to challenge Nikki Haley and eventually beats her to eventually challenge Kamala Harris for President in 2024.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4900
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 19 Nov 2020, 6:56 am

rickyp wrote:You win.
And this:

Trump will continue to do everything possible to create chaos after he loses, and the next couple of months will be crazy.


is spot on.

I continue to worry about the long-term health of the nation. If he loses, what happens to the Trump clan?


I think he'll move to extreme media like OAN, and Fox will start to change its point of view and reporting. Their news division already has...
OAN will draw viewers of some of the Fox opinion shows away ... and perhaps ratings will see that line up changed to more reasonable personalities with a more balanced approach. That will be healthy.
OAN won't be. However here's what I think happens.
Melania divorces Donald and moves ... perhaps to the UK?
NY charges the Trumps with fraud and other financial crimes. Legal fight goes on for 2 years.
Deutsche Bank calls in its loan, creating financial havoc for Trump and a fire sale of assets. The Scottish investigation into money laundering may also bear fruit and further strain Trump.
A much diminished Trump dies in two or 3 years from the strain of it all....and a life of poor habits.
The Eric and Don spend their time on the far right attempting to replicate their fathers grifts among the deluded viewers of OAN and Infowars. Most of the US tires of their dance.
The Kushners recede into the back ground, as their fortunes shrink. If Kushner also faces charges of financial crimes, that may happen quickly, though his connections to the Arab world may prove helpful to his endeavors.
Senator Rubio rises to challenge Nikki Haley and eventually beats her to eventually challenge Kamala Harris for President in 2024.


Geo - well done
Ricky - that's very reasonable and seems very plausible to me; I'll just point out that the future has a tendency to make fools out of all of us. Old Yiddish expression: Man plans and God laughs.