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Post 07 May 2020, 8:52 am

geojanes wrote:The Gov of NYS just announced that 21% of adult NYC residents sampled have Covid-19 antibodies. I was sick as a dog in early Feb.

How do I get myself a test?? I want to go out and breath the air! Feel the sun!


Well, I got my test and I never had it. So disappointed.
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Post 08 May 2020, 11:29 am

Another meeting of the Rejected by Covid support group...

Support Group Leader: "So we're here to discuss our feelings about being rejected by the virus. George (sees his nametag), why dont you start..."

George: "Well, I got really sick in maybe early Feburary? I felt sure I had it. All I needed was to get tested for antibodies and I would be free again! Then I get the test back: negative. Why did this happen to me..."

Leader: "Don't take it so personal, George. I'm sure the virus does love you....how 'bout you Bob?

Bob: "I keep checking my temperature several times a day..does that little tickle in my throat mean anything? I'll get my hopes up after a sneeze...but nothing. What, my lung tissue is not good enough for you, COVID? I feel so rejected..."

Leader: "It's not personal, Bob. I'm sure your lung tissue is just as good as anyone else's...how 'bout you Larry?

Larry: "I feel feel like this virus is prejudiced against me. It's favoring minority groups at my expense. Yeah, racism used to be a problem but it aint no more...why should I have to suffer for what happened in the past?

Leader: "Sometimes, we have to sacrifice for the greater good, Larry. Try not to be selfish about this. How 'bout' you, Bill?"

Bill: "After our great leader Trump said that bleach could kill the virus I stocked up on a lot of household cleaning products in the hopes of getting the virus...but I am still negative. What I am supposed to do with all those cleaners? I aint cleaning the apartment, no way! I didnt get it for that. I dont care what the girlfriend says! So I am now stuck with stuff I cant use..."

Leader: "Sounds like you have more problems than the virus...how 'bout you Tyler?

Tyler Durden: "I'm a tourist. Just auditing. But isnt it time for a group hug, now? So we can deal with the pain? I could use a good cry right now..."

Leader: "Yes, what a great idea! We all need to learn to love the virus! Hug it out, everyone...
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Post 09 May 2020, 4:24 pm

Yeah, you can laugh, but having the antibodies would have been like getting paroled. Quarantine sucks.
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Post 09 May 2020, 5:14 pm

I know, George. Just trying to lighten things up, wasnt trying to poke fun. It sucks for everyone and a get out of jail card would be priceless.
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Post 11 May 2020, 1:12 pm

RJ found this great article on virus tranmission that I think it is important to read. I have been sending it out to everyone I know...all two of them. :grin:

Anyway, it is very well-reasoned. And I am getting it out to as many people as I can. Thanks, RJ!

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-ri ... MvUwxgXzPt
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Post 19 May 2020, 2:56 am

Back in the Insane Asylum...

Trump: "So Pence did you hear what James Wood said about me today? He said I was a rough guy, vain, insensitive but no president has loved their country more in his lifetime"
Pence: "That's good, right?"
Trump: "Absolutely! He's saying that I am a tough guy and patriotic!"
Pence: "He's right, Mr. President."
Trump: "Yeah, great guy. Terrific actor. Finding someone in Hollywood that supports me is like finding a virgin in a brothel...but I got one! And I do love my country...that's why I want to sell it to the Russians."
Pence: "Of course. So...did you test positive for COVID?"
Trump: "No, but I am positive youre an idiot!"
Pence: "Well...it did seem odd that you be taking it...if youre not sick."
Trump: "Yes, it would be odd if I were taking it. But if people think I am taking it, maybe they'll take it. And who knows it might even work! And then I'll get the credit for saving the country..."
Pence: "Gotcha. Uh, so I dont have to wear a mask?"
Trump: "Youre starting to remind me of Jared...anyway, real men dont wear masks. Although, some women look kind of hot in them..."
Pence: "I'm married...I'm not allowed to notice that."
Trump: "Sorry, I forgot for a minute that youre a crazy religious nut..."
Pence: "No problem. Between Lysol and Hydro...arent you worried about killing off your base?"
Trump. "These people are salt of the earth. Theyre tough people...great people. Anyway,they just need to survive until the first week of November. So...how is the reopening going?"
Pence: "It's going wonderful so far. With your great leadership we will prevail over this virus and our economy will be back to being the best economy this country has ever had!"
Trump: "Wow. Your butt-kissing...is very impressive! I dont think we've seen anything like it before. It's really quite amazing..."
Pence: "Thank you, sir!"
Trump: "'How is our testing...not going?"
Pence: "Just say No...and we'll beat Joe!"
Trump: "Yes. The only good test...is the one not given. Anything else going on in this...in this great country of ours?
Pence: "The Fake News Media is complaining about your massacre of the inspector generals..."
Trump: First, they were appointed by Obama. Not good. Secondly, they did the one thing they're not supposed to do..."
Pence: "What's that?"
Trump: "Inspect."
Pence: "'How dare they! The Deep State strikes again..."
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Post 23 May 2020, 12:51 pm

Interesting article on the failures of New York City and the state of New York in responding to the pandemic.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5ec0 ... 56749beb48
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Post 24 May 2020, 9:25 am

freeman3 wrote:Interesting article on the failures of New York City and the state of New York in responding to the pandemic.

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5ec0 ... 56749beb48


The political response to CV in NY has been a disaster. The politicians needed to be the focus of the spotlight, even when this is not what they do, or know anything about. I recall on March 27, deBlasio was on the radio, and he scolded the interviewer that CV could only be spread by people who had symptoms when the interviewer suggested otherwise. Even I knew asymptomatic people could pass it to others by March 27.

Cuomo has been a better leader, but he's also been just as wrong and deBlasio, if not more so. Both of these guys run their dominions like they are kings, people can't talk to them, and neither has any humility. When asked what he would have done differently, deBlasio went not quite full Trump, but almost, by refusing any self-reflection, insisting only only looking forward.

It's all been so disappointing, and tragically so.
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Post 24 May 2020, 11:26 am

Interesting. Thanks. You have a closer view of what happened there than the rest of us. It really is impossible for a politician to admit fault, isnt it?
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Post 24 May 2020, 11:42 am

Of course the worst rot was at the top. No real mobilizing of federal resources to produce adequate supplies of PPE and adequate number of tests. Downplaying the threat of the viru, slow to limit flights from Europe, slow to advise shut-downs, the president not wanting to wear a mask because his base would think it makes him look weak. And not producing masks for people, instead relying on homemade masks. How hard is to test different masks, find the one(s) that best filter particles...and then mass produce them? No, we let people do their masks--bandanas only filter like 10% of particles and are essentially useless
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Post 11 Jul 2020, 8:48 pm

There is something that bothers me about this whole notion of asymptomatic cases. What does that really mean? The CDC estimates that 40% of cases are asymptomatic and that the virus is estimated to have a 0.6% mortality rate.

The actual US mortality rate based on a comparison of covid deaths to known cases is 4.7%. The difference between 0.6% and 4.7% is enormous. Here's the thing: most people get colds and the flu on an occasional basis. And by "get" we mean getting enough symptoms to affect us enough so that we think we are "sick'". We dont notice when we have asymptomatic cases of the flu or of the common cold. We only notice when we get enough of a viral infection to put us over a certain tipping point so that we are sick.

If the fact that you had an asymptomatic case meant that you have antibody protection than that would be meaningful and the .6% stat would be meaningful. It would tell you that 99.6% of the population is not going to die from the virus. But if all it tells that on one occasion the virus did not get enough of a foothold to stick and it could come back later and hit the same person, then I am not sure what it means.

If the 4.7% mortality figure is accurate for those that get "sick", then it's a pretty high number. Of course there would still be large differential mortality rates based on age and pre-existing conditions, but still that would be a concerning rate. And of course that figure could be vastly exaggerated due to people getting sick with Covid who never got tested. Of course, there are asymptomatic people who are being counted when they get positive tests. I have no idea what that is. And there are some studies showing Covid deaths have been undercounted.

So the mortality rate of people who perceived that they been sick with COVID is likely between .6% and 4.7%. In my mind, the .6% figure likely dramatically underestimates the mortality rate of those who actually get sick with Covid. And I imagine that those who actually get sick are more likely to develop some antibody protection.

I think the whole notion of asymptomatic cases has to rethought at least until we have some proof that it provides antibody protection. Otherwise, whats most important to people is their expectation as to what will happen when they actually get sick with Covid. Who knows we might get asymptomatic cases of the cold or flu all of the time but we just dont know it. But occasionally when our immune is weak or we get a heavy exposure...we get sick. And I think there should be more of a focus on what happens when people actually get sick rather than throwing all these asymptomatic cases into the mix without really analyzing what that means. Getting sick with a virus has a certain clear meaning. Getting enough virus so we come back with a positive test...the meaning is not so clear there.
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Post 12 Jul 2020, 5:52 am

It's amazing how much we still don't know. Here's something else that's important: When you survive covid-19 there may be health effects that linger for years. Brain or lung function may be compromised. The real fatality rate and the individual long-term health implications will not be known for decades.
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Post 12 Jul 2020, 9:21 am

Yes. People will have their health negatively affected and die early due to damage from this virus for many years to come. This is not a virus you want going through your system even if youre young. The excessive focus on a relatively low mortality rate (though even that is perhaps problematic as I discussed) is misguided.
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Post 13 Jul 2020, 11:11 am

I was thinking this morning about a scene in Saving Private Ryan where this glider pilot was saying 15 [I think) guys died because they put metal plates on his glider to protect a general and the weight of the metal plates made flying the glider almost impossible and it crashed. And of course the whole movie was about this small unit being sent to save one guy because his brothers died. I havent really thought about the deeper movie of that movie but I guess it has to be something about the interplay of the importance of each person in a democracy (as opposed to the lack of importance of each person in fascism or communist regimes) while at the same each person--while important--also owes duties to society (like perhaps giving up your life fighting in a war).

That started me thinking about World War I where the wastage of soldiers--many times commanded by soldiers from aristocratic families--pretty much was the death knell for the last vestiges of feudalism and the aristocracy. They just threw men's lives away perhaps because those lives just werent very important. And that kind of thinking was just not going to be tolerated any longer. Without aristocratic government there was a flux period between 1918-1990 where more democratic governments fought it out with communist and fascist government--led by the US--and won.

And now we're in a new period where totalitarisn governments have fused with capitalism to be a competitor to the liberal democracies led by the US.

Back to the idea about the importance of each person and the idea that trying to protect a general is not worth 15 paratroopers dying. That goes against our egalitarian beliefs. Someone is not worth more than another merely because they are of noble birth or that they are rich.

And we now have one man--President Trump--whose selfish focus on reelection is likely going to cause 200,000 deaths...
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Post 13 Jul 2020, 11:40 am

By the way, I was reading this morning about a discussion among epidemiologists in Italy about why the virus has calmed down so much there. And there is a dispute whether the virus is less deadly now because it is summer. The thinking among some epidemiologists there is that Covid replicates less during the summer, similar to other coronaviruses. Others disagree with that argument. I don't know who has the better of that argument, but if the virus is less, well, virulent during the summer that would help to explain the lower death rates we've had. But if the virus is less harmful during the summer...we got 1.5, maybe 2.5 months to get the virus under control or we are going to get hit with a coronavirus tsumani in the fall...

The strategy with dealing with the virus seems to be straightforward at this point. When you get an outbreak (meaning exponential growth in cases) you lockdown until the virus is down to a low number of cases. Then you reopen with social distancing and MANDATORY mask wearing in public. JC, people have died in this country fighting to protect it people can makr a small sacrifice by wearing a mask. I just dont know that we can have indoor dining or (especially) bars or gyms until this is over. And you test anyone who has symptoms and anyone working in factories or other locations where there are a lot of people. And--at least when there is a low number of cases-- isolate and contact trace when you get a positive test. And there can be experimentation with how much to reopen but just know that if you reopen too aggressively you might have to go to total lockdown if the virus gets out of control. And if you have a very low number of cases maybe you can reopen schools with small class sizes, periodic testing, social distancing, temperature checks, mask wearing.

I dont think this is really rocket science at this point. We're just making it look like it is...