Join In On The Action "Register Here" To View The Forums

Already a Member Login Here

Board index Forum Index
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4770
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 14 Mar 2018, 11:03 am

bbauska wrote:http://www.king5.com/article/news/local/investigations/dui-related-deaths-up-as-wa-police-scale-back-enforcement/281-417222771

https://www.npr.org/2015/08/19/432896393/more-washington-drivers-use-and-drive

Since legalization, the Washington state toxicology lab — the group that tests blood samples from DUI cases — says a lot more of samples are positive for marijuana. Three years ago, about 19 percent of the samples contained THC, the key ingredient in pot. This year, that percentage is up to 33 percent.

https://www.drugrehab.com/2017/04/27/drinking-and-driving-a-huge-problem-in-washington-state/

I live in Washington. I just don't look up the stats on the internet to try to make my point. Take a look at the NPR study. That refutes your "one data point" argument.


I realize that we are off topic, but marijuana has other societal and individual impacts as well. On the positive side, I understand that opioid addiction decreases substantially as do medical expenses.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 14 Mar 2018, 11:04 am

danivon wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:
1. Meta data doesn’t help those still being killed and maimed every year. Safety equipment, not “attitudes” is more likely responsible. In 1981, wearing a seatbelt was entirely optional.
these two sentences appear to be at cross purposes. Seatbelts existed for years before 1981, but the actual change came when "attitudes" altered and politicians changed the law to make their use compulsory. Lives were saved by a combination of equipment, attitudes and law.

Do you at least think that applying similar regulations to guns as you do for cars would help reduce deaths, as it has for driving?


No. The reason we are having these mass shootings is cultural.

And, all the yammering by these teenaged know-nothings is not going to change the law or the culture.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 14 Mar 2018, 11:05 am

Ray Jay wrote:
bbauska wrote:http://www.king5.com/article/news/local/investigations/dui-related-deaths-up-as-wa-police-scale-back-enforcement/281-417222771

https://www.npr.org/2015/08/19/432896393/more-washington-drivers-use-and-drive

Since legalization, the Washington state toxicology lab — the group that tests blood samples from DUI cases — says a lot more of samples are positive for marijuana. Three years ago, about 19 percent of the samples contained THC, the key ingredient in pot. This year, that percentage is up to 33 percent.

https://www.drugrehab.com/2017/04/27/drinking-and-driving-a-huge-problem-in-washington-state/

I live in Washington. I just don't look up the stats on the internet to try to make my point. Take a look at the NPR study. That refutes your "one data point" argument.


I realize that we are off topic, but marijuana has other societal and individual impacts as well. On the positive side, I understand that opioid addiction decreases substantially as do medical expenses.

I don’t believe that. And, I’ll wager any study showing that is by a pro-marijuana group.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10951
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 14 Mar 2018, 2:22 pm

bbauska
I live in Washington. I just don't look up the stats on the internet to try to make my point. Take a look at the NPR study. That refutes your "one data point" argument
.

I don't know where you've wandered off here.. Nor do I understand what point you are trying to make.

Let me reiterate. The argument about attitudes changing regarding DUI, and about laws and regulations goes back to before the early 80's and after.


Fate
Ricky, no, alcohol consumption is not declining

I never claimed they were.
I offered you proof that the incidence of impaired driving accidents causing fatalities had decreased since 1980.
The founder of Madd claimed it was attitudinal. I think she may be right. But its also regulations and enforcement.
That alcohol consumption isn't declining but fatal accidents due to impairment have decreased suggests strongly that people are more responsible about their alcohol consumption, at least where it comes to driving.
Which would be the attitudinal shift to which the founder of Madd refers
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10951
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 14 Mar 2018, 2:35 pm

Fate
No. The reason we are having these mass shootings is cultural.
And, all the yammering by these teenaged know-nothings is not going to change the law or the culture.


I agree with you that American culture accepts pervasive gun ownership.
And it is that acceptance that leads to easy access to guns, in particular AR15s ...and similar weapons - which contribute to the damage a shooter can do in a short time. (Most school shootings are over in 4 minuses or less. And almost never because of armed intervention). )

However your governments are out of step with genuine public attitudes towards regulation . In fact current regulation is not in step with the culture...

Is it possible that the culture will change ?
I remember that on this very web site you claimed gay marriage would never be acceptable in the US.
Funny thing about cultural changes, they happen first with the young. So all these "teenaged know-nothings" represent the future.

is it possible that public demand will force government to be more responsive and to enact the kinds of laws and regulations that the public at large actually wants, or will the NRA continue to hold the GOP in its thrall?
Again, this starts with the young. (Same with opposition to the Viet Nam war. Legalizing marijuana.The Civil Rights movement)
User avatar
Administrator
 
Posts: 6796
Joined: 26 Jun 2000, 1:13 pm

Post 14 Mar 2018, 3:37 pm

I am giving numbers as to the increased instances of DUI since the legalization of marijuana in Washington State. Not just one data point, but a few years worth of data:

2014
"What we see is that in 2014 we had a fairly good spike in marijuana involvement in crashes," says Shelly Baldwin of the Washington Traffic Safety Commission. They've done an interesting new analysis of blood tests of drivers in fatal accidents.

2015
Since legalization, the Washington state toxicology lab — the group that tests blood samples from DUI cases — says a lot more of samples are positive for marijuana. Three years ago, about 19 percent of the samples contained THC, the key ingredient in pot. This year, that percentage is up to 33 percent.

The number of drivers testing positive for active THC has steadily increased, from less than half of marijuana positive drivers in 2010 up to almost 65% of drivers in 2013. In 2014, an alarming 85% (75 of 89 drivers) of drivers testing positive for marijuana were positive for impairing THC.

In the end of 2012, marijuana was legalized in the State of Washington. I am showing an increase in DUI matching the timeframe of the legalization date.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 14 Mar 2018, 4:27 pm

rickyp wrote:Fate
Ricky, no, alcohol consumption is not declining

I never claimed they were.
I offered you proof that the incidence of impaired driving accidents causing fatalities had decreased since 1980.
The founder of Madd claimed it was attitudinal. I think she may be right.


I reject her opinion.

That alcohol consumption isn't declining but fatal accidents due to impairment have decreased suggests strongly that people are more responsible about their alcohol consumption, at least where it comes to driving.


Opinion, with which I disagree.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10951
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 15 Mar 2018, 5:48 am

bbauska
I am giving numbers as to the increased instances of DUI since the legalization of marijuana in Washington State. Not just one data point, but a few years worth of data
:

Ah. And your point would be that Schochet is right. And Urquhart wrong.. (below)

Sheriff John Urquhart: The Washington State Patrol's numbers indicate that, despite the legalization of recreational marijuana, driving under the influence (DUI) has not measurably increased. My experience as Sheriff, and the experience of my officers, reflects this. Some people drove impaired on marijuana before legalization, and about the same number will do so after legalization.

John Schochet: Anecdotally, I do think you are getting more people driving under the influence of marijuana. Cannabis legalization does not seem to have increased DUIs overall, though it might be that some cannabis DUIs are substituting for alcohol DUIs. Overall, DUI increases are not an enormous problem when it comes to marijuana legalization, but it could be if left unchecked.


Okay.
Has Washington State done an advertising blitz to inform people about?
1) the dangers of driving under marijuana influence
2) inform the public about the ability of police to find, arrest and obtain convictions for those who break the law?
It took a good decade for drunk driving to decrease after the attitudinal shift that began in the early 80s. If jurisdictions that have decriminalized recreational marijuana use are experiencing an uptick in DUI's perhaps its because the same strategies that wee successful in the 80's and 90s aren't being followed?
And perhaps it because consumers are ignorant of both the dangers in use and the danger in being arrested while DUI?
In Canada we're about to legalize recreational use. (In July) For three months the DUI ad campaign has been in force. Plus the publicizing of new enforcement techniques as well... In the hope that DUI won't be influenced by legalization. (Driving restrictions for those aged 16 to 21 are also different in that NO alcohol is permitted in traffic stop tests.I think this is the same for TCH measurements as well.)
User avatar
Administrator
 
Posts: 6796
Joined: 26 Jun 2000, 1:13 pm

Post 15 Mar 2018, 8:56 am

rickyp wrote:bbauska
I am giving numbers as to the increased instances of DUI since the legalization of marijuana in Washington State. Not just one data point, but a few years worth of data
:

Ah. And your point would be that Schochet is right. And Urquhart wrong.. (below)

Sheriff John Urquhart: The Washington State Patrol's numbers indicate that, despite the legalization of recreational marijuana, driving under the influence (DUI) has not measurably increased. My experience as Sheriff, and the experience of my officers, reflects this. Some people drove impaired on marijuana before legalization, and about the same number will do so after legalization.

John Schochet: Anecdotally, I do think you are getting more people driving under the influence of marijuana. Cannabis legalization does not seem to have increased DUIs overall, though it might be that some cannabis DUIs are substituting for alcohol DUIs. Overall, DUI increases are not an enormous problem when it comes to marijuana legalization, but it could be if left unchecked.


Okay.
Has Washington State done an advertising blitz to inform people about?
1) the dangers of driving under marijuana influence
2) inform the public about the ability of police to find, arrest and obtain convictions for those who break the law?
It took a good decade for drunk driving to decrease after the attitudinal shift that began in the early 80s. If jurisdictions that have decriminalized recreational marijuana use are experiencing an uptick in DUI's perhaps its because the same strategies that wee successful in the 80's and 90s aren't being followed?
And perhaps it because consumers are ignorant of both the dangers in use and the danger in being arrested while DUI?
In Canada we're about to legalize recreational use. (In July) For three months the DUI ad campaign has been in force. Plus the publicizing of new enforcement techniques as well... In the hope that DUI won't be influenced by legalization. (Driving restrictions for those aged 16 to 21 are also different in that NO alcohol is permitted in traffic stop tests.I think this is the same for TCH measurements as well.)


Yes. I believe Sheriff Urquhart is wrong compared to the state numbers I provided. His data is personal and anecdotal. Reminds me of how you feel global warming is still happening even though it is colder somewhere. You say any evidence against your theory is "anecdotal and regional".

To answer your questions:
Yes, Washington has/is doing ad campaigns showing the risks of marijuana use and effects on driving. The ads are also informing the public about police capabilities.

Do the numbers in the links I provided show an uptick if DUI after legalization occurred in Washington? I would love to hear an answer, but I doubt you are capable of that.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10951
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 16 Mar 2018, 11:56 am

bbauska
Yes. I believe Sheriff Urquhart is wrong compared to the state numbers I provided. His data is personal and anecdotal.


Is it? Here's what he said ...


The Washington State Patrol's numbers indicate that, despite the legalization of recreational marijuana, driving under the influence (DUI) has not measurably increased
.
He's refering to some numbers. Now, he hasn't shared them, so we can't compare with what you produced ...
But that's not an anecdotal statement. He's appealing to the authority of his data.

This part of his statment
My experience as Sheriff, and the experience of my officers, reflects this. Some people drove impaired on marijuana before legalization, and about the same number will do so after legalization
.
is anecdotal....

But, if I were Fate, I would submit to you that being a cop, the Sheriff knows what he's talking about.
But I'm not Fate, and I suspect, although his reasoning may make sense, perhaps he needs to check his data and his perceptions based on your competing information.
However, I'm pretty confident that the long term trend on driving under the influence, either drugs or alcohol, will follow the experience from 1980 till today. we have too much experience in how regulations, and laws, enforcement of such and constant public awareness campaignshave lead to reductions in alcohol related traffic fatalities..

bbauska
Reminds me of how you feel global warming is still happening even though it is colder somewhere. You say any evidence against your theory is "anecdotal and regional"

Yes. Global warming is still happening even though it is colder somewhere...
User avatar
Administrator
 
Posts: 6796
Joined: 26 Jun 2000, 1:13 pm

Post 16 Mar 2018, 12:32 pm

So yes, without data his statement is personal and anecdotal.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21061
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 16 Mar 2018, 12:43 pm

bbauska wrote:So yes, without data his statement is personal and anecdotal.


I'd go a bit further.

If alcohol was illegal, would the same number drink as currently do?

I doubt it because some people actually respect the laws of the land.

When marijuana is legal, more people will smoke it and more people will have access to it. People who would not go looking for it when it was illegal will stumble upon it now.

More use = more DUI.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4770
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 17 Mar 2018, 7:05 am

Doctor Fate wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:
bbauska wrote:http://www.king5.com/article/news/local/investigations/dui-related-deaths-up-as-wa-police-scale-back-enforcement/281-417222771

https://www.npr.org/2015/08/19/432896393/more-washington-drivers-use-and-drive

Since legalization, the Washington state toxicology lab — the group that tests blood samples from DUI cases — says a lot more of samples are positive for marijuana. Three years ago, about 19 percent of the samples contained THC, the key ingredient in pot. This year, that percentage is up to 33 percent.

https://www.drugrehab.com/2017/04/27/drinking-and-driving-a-huge-problem-in-washington-state/

I live in Washington. I just don't look up the stats on the internet to try to make my point. Take a look at the NPR study. That refutes your "one data point" argument.


I realize that we are off topic, but marijuana has other societal and individual impacts as well. On the positive side, I understand that opioid addiction decreases substantially as do medical expenses.

I don’t believe that. And, I’ll wager any study showing that is by a pro-marijuana group.


Here's a study in JAMA on legalized medical marijuana and opioid overdose death rates.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/1898878

Results Three states (California, Oregon, and Washington) had medical cannabis laws effective prior to 1999. Ten states (Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont) enacted medical cannabis laws between 1999 and 2010. States with medical cannabis laws had a 24.8% lower mean annual opioid overdose mortality rate (95% CI, −37.5% to −9.5%; P = .003) compared with states without medical cannabis laws. Examination of the association between medical cannabis laws and opioid analgesic overdose mortality in each year after implementation of the law showed that such laws were associated with a lower rate of overdose mortality that generally strengthened over time: year 1 (−19.9%; 95% CI, −30.6% to −7.7%; P = .002), year 2 (−25.2%; 95% CI, −40.6% to −5.9%; P = .01), year 3 (−23.6%; 95% CI, −41.1% to −1.0%; P = .04), year 4 (−20.2%; 95% CI, −33.6% to −4.0%; P = .02), year 5 (−33.7%; 95% CI, −50.9% to −10.4%; P = .008), and year 6 (−33.3%; 95% CI, −44.7% to −19.6%; P < .001). In secondary analyses, the findings remained similar.
Conclusions and Relevance Medical cannabis laws are associated with significantly lower state-level opioid overdose mortality rates.


Regarding full legalization of marijuana, there are fewer studies, possible because it hasn't been going on as long.. Here's something AJPH, although the results are not that dramatic. http://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/fu ... 017.304059

Results. Colorado’s legalization of recreational cannabis sales and use resulted in a 0.7 deaths per month (b = −0.68; 95% confidence interval = −1.34, −0.03) reduction in opioid-related deaths. This reduction represents a reversal of the upward trend in opioid-related deaths in Colorado.
Conclusions. Legalization of cannabis in Colorado was associated with short-term reductions in opioid-related deaths. As additional data become available, research should replicate these analyses in other states with legal recreational cannabis.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4770
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 17 Mar 2018, 7:16 am

Re medical marijuana and health care costs.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/debraborch ... 7a60c77c57

The study by Ashley C. Bradford and W. David Bradford examined whether states with medical marijuana laws saw changes for prescription drugs among Medicare Part D enrollees. Their analysis covered data between 2007 to 2014 and found that patients did indeed substitute medical marijuana for FDA-approved prescription drugs in these states.
“Total estimated Medicaid savings associated with these laws ranged from $260.8 million in 2007 to $475.8 million in 2014,” the study states.


And here's a study on medical marijuana and US crime from the Economic Journal http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 12521/full

Abstract
We show that the introduction of medical marijuana laws (MMLs) leads to a decrease in violent crime in states that border Mexico. The reduction in crime is strongest for counties close to the border (less than 350 kilometres) and for crimes that relate to drug trafficking. In addition, we find that MMLs in inland states lead to a reduction in crime in the nearest border state. Our results are consistent with the theory that decriminalisation of the production and distribution of marijuana leads to a reduction in violent crime in markets that are traditionally controlled by Mexican drug trafficking organisations.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 10951
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 17 Mar 2018, 8:06 am

Fate
If alcohol was illegal, would the same number drink as currently do?
I doubt it because some people actually respect the laws of the land.

There is evidence to suggest this is correct.

Alcohol Consumption During Prohibition
Jeffrey A. Miron, Jeffrey Zwiebel
NBER Working Paper No. 3675 (Also Reprint No. r1563)
Issued in April 1991
We estimate the consumption of alcohol during Prohibition using mortality, mental health and crime statistics. We find that alcohol consumption fell sharply at the beginning of Prohibition, to approximately 30 percent of its pre-Prohibition level. During the next several years, however, alcohol consumption increased sharply, to about 60-70 percent of its pre-prohibition level. The level of consumption was virtually the same immediately after Prohibition as during the latter part of Prohibition, although consumption increased to approximately its pre-Prohibition level during the subsequent decade.

http://www.nber.org/papers/w3675

Fate
When marijuana is legal, more people will smoke it and more people will have access to it. People who would not go looking for it when it was illegal will stumble upon it now

Stumble upon it? Though a reasonable assumption.

Fate
More use = more DUI

So when someone says more guns more gun deaths you'd agree too?

Problem is that since the 1980's DUI's per capita or per mile driven have been going down. HAs drinking been going down? No.
So what changed? According to the founder of MADD, attitudes to drinking and driving. ..
Is it possible that most people are responsible about how, and where they consume alcohol especially when it comes to driving under the influence? (You know like most gun owners are responsible)
Is it possible that this attitude will also be reflected in how consumers of marijuana will conduct them selves?

bbauska
So yes, without data his statement is personal and anecdotal

Do you think he is lying about the Washington State Patrol numbers when he says
The Washington State Patrol's numbers indicate that, despite the legalization of recreational marijuana, driving under the influence (DUI) has not measurably increased