RUFFHAUS 8 wrote:Well, I guess saying it again isn't going to make a dent, is it? If all temas had played the same number of games you could analize where the are right now. DC United has at least one game in hand on everyone, and two or more on some others ahead of them. And if that one game is a win (tonight), then they are not in fifth place anymore (techically they are in 6th place now). Furthermore with two games in hand on division leading Columbus, they are potentially one point out of first place. Now if they go drop points to last place Chicago tonight, then the games in hand obviously matters a little bit less.
No, but the games in hand were considered when I looked at it. Admittedly, I've been sparse with my methodology, but that's because I didn't have the numbers written down. Basically I looked at points per game, and remaining schedules. DC ws in 4th in PPG when I looked at it, but out of the playoffs because of the western conference. Anyway, here's what the standings are in ppg as of today:
Team - PPG x GR
Columbus 1.542 X
Philadelphia 1.478
DC 1.364
Kansas City 1.304
Houston 1.292
New York 1.240
We will most likely get 1 and maybe 2 wildcard teams because a lot of the western conference teams have concacaf matches intertwined with league matches. But with the new wildcard format, there is no guarantee that any eastern conference teams will make it. That said, the Union Columbus have the safest positions in the conference. There is a larger gap between the Union and DC in PPG than between any two other neighboring teams on that list. That's significant 2/3 of the way through the season. I see no reason the Union can't continue that trend.
So as of now, DC and KC are the most likely candidates for a wildcard. But if you look
The teams to watch out for in the Western conference are Chivas, Portland, and RSL. The Union and United both play all three. Columbus plays almost strictly eastern conference teams. So they could run away with it early--especially if they get separation from the Union this weekend. If not, their games will be more important and come October, they could be difficult for teams struggling for a wildcard.
The reason I said sooner rather than later is because of the nature of their schedule. 7 of their remaining games are away (there's your one in hand). This game against KC is huge for DC, particularly if they come away from Chicago with anything less than 3 points. After Portland (that field is much more difficult than you realize), you have an extremely difficult september/october, including road matches in philly, columbus, and seattle, only to finish against the primary team you'll be fighting for that 3rd spot with--unless KC drops off, which could happen.
While the Union/Columbus game is big for both teams, it's not as vital. But you and KC are vying for the last guaranteed spot. So from the Union's perspective, the games between DC, KC, HOU, and NY are only going to help us. Dropping one spot doesn't hurt. Dropping 2 or 3 is highly unlikely. Dropping out of the playoffs would require an implosion. Not gonna happen.