I was wondering about how other diplomacy players make educated guesses in the typical situation where chance plays a role in the outcome in moves. I think the situation where England moves to English Channel in Spring 1901 and France and England have to make decisions about what to do is an optimal situation to examine the steps in formulating moves to optimize results.
1. Relevant Spring 1901 moves
a. Germany
Army Munich-Burgundy (bounce)
Army Berlin-Kiel
Fleet Kiel-Denmark
b. Italy
a. Fleet Naples-Ionian
b. Army Venice holds
c. Army Rome-Apulia
c. England
a. Fleet London-English Channel
b. Fleet Edinburgh-North Sea
c. Army Liverpool-Wales
d. Russia
a. Fleet Sev-Black Sea
b. Army Moscow-Ukraine
c. Army Warsaw-Galicia
d. Fleet St. Pete©-GOB
e. France
a. Fleet Brest-Mid Atlantic
b. Army Marseilles-Burgundy (bounce)
c. Army Paris-Gascony
2. First Level of Moves: Assessing best move from own standpoint
England: Best Outcome: (1) move to Brest, France leaves it uncovered
2nd best outcojme: (2) take Belgium, France covers Brest
3rd best outcome: (3) take Belgium, France leaves brest uncovered and gets two builds
4th best outcome: (4) bounce in Brest
France: Best outcome (1) don’t cover Brest, pick up two builds
2nd best outcome: (2) bounce in Brest
3rd worst outcome: (3) cover brest, England takes Belgium
Fourth Best: (4) England takes Brest
The interesting thing is that if France go for their best option they will either get it or they will get their worst option, perhaps indicating a conservative approach is required. But with France facing an all-out attack, maybe they should take that risk? Also if either side can improve the chance that one of their better outcomes will result, perhaps they can make riskier moves
2. Second Level of Moves: What are moves given your preception of other player given his style of play, the diplomacy between you and the other player, and indirect diplomacy
(a) Not sure if it works in this context but sometimes you can assume that an inexperienced player will not “see” a certain move.
(b) If you know that English player is conservative, maybe you assume that he takes Belgium if you’re French player. If you know that French player is aggressive maybe you think that odds are greater that he will leave Brest open and take two builds, etc…
(c) Diplomacy to persuade other player you are going to do a certain move or not do a certain move.
First Type of Decetion: Simply lying to other player about what you’re going to do.
Second Type of Decepton: Lying to other player but expecting that other player will not believe you and move accordingly.
Third Type of Deception: Telling other player the truth about your moves but expecting/intending that it willl not be believed
Indirect Disception--using other player to indirectly convey false intentions to the target country. The other player could be in cahoots with you but probably works better if this is someone who you think will convey your hostile intentions without prodding..
3. Third Level of Moves: What are your moves given your belief about other player’s perception of you.
(a). How does other player view your experience level, style of play, etc.
` (b) Diplomacy of other player to you with the various types of deception used
(c) Indirect Deception by other player towards you
\(d) Effect of relationship of E/R, E/G and G/R on guesswork
i. If England and Germany have a really strong alliance might England take a risk and goFor Brest? It it does not appear that strong would England invariably go for Belgium?
ii. If Russia realizes that ER is going to be a threat to him does that make England less or more aggressive?
4. Conclusion
To me, the optimal move for France is to leave Brest open and the optimal move for England is to take Belgium. The benefit to England from gaining Brest (though substantial) does not justify the risk of losing Belgium and an assured two builds. For France, the risk of losing Brest (though substantial) is outweighed by the huge gain resulting in getting two build and building a fleet in Brest. So to go away from those moves has to be based on some level of confidence that the other player isn’t going to do those preferred/default moves. The inexactness of that determination is what makes me to want to play chess….
1. Relevant Spring 1901 moves
a. Germany
Army Munich-Burgundy (bounce)
Army Berlin-Kiel
Fleet Kiel-Denmark
b. Italy
a. Fleet Naples-Ionian
b. Army Venice holds
c. Army Rome-Apulia
c. England
a. Fleet London-English Channel
b. Fleet Edinburgh-North Sea
c. Army Liverpool-Wales
d. Russia
a. Fleet Sev-Black Sea
b. Army Moscow-Ukraine
c. Army Warsaw-Galicia
d. Fleet St. Pete©-GOB
e. France
a. Fleet Brest-Mid Atlantic
b. Army Marseilles-Burgundy (bounce)
c. Army Paris-Gascony
2. First Level of Moves: Assessing best move from own standpoint
England: Best Outcome: (1) move to Brest, France leaves it uncovered
2nd best outcojme: (2) take Belgium, France covers Brest
3rd best outcome: (3) take Belgium, France leaves brest uncovered and gets two builds
4th best outcome: (4) bounce in Brest
France: Best outcome (1) don’t cover Brest, pick up two builds
2nd best outcome: (2) bounce in Brest
3rd worst outcome: (3) cover brest, England takes Belgium
Fourth Best: (4) England takes Brest
The interesting thing is that if France go for their best option they will either get it or they will get their worst option, perhaps indicating a conservative approach is required. But with France facing an all-out attack, maybe they should take that risk? Also if either side can improve the chance that one of their better outcomes will result, perhaps they can make riskier moves
2. Second Level of Moves: What are moves given your preception of other player given his style of play, the diplomacy between you and the other player, and indirect diplomacy
(a) Not sure if it works in this context but sometimes you can assume that an inexperienced player will not “see” a certain move.
(b) If you know that English player is conservative, maybe you assume that he takes Belgium if you’re French player. If you know that French player is aggressive maybe you think that odds are greater that he will leave Brest open and take two builds, etc…
(c) Diplomacy to persuade other player you are going to do a certain move or not do a certain move.
First Type of Decetion: Simply lying to other player about what you’re going to do.
Second Type of Decepton: Lying to other player but expecting that other player will not believe you and move accordingly.
Third Type of Deception: Telling other player the truth about your moves but expecting/intending that it willl not be believed
Indirect Disception--using other player to indirectly convey false intentions to the target country. The other player could be in cahoots with you but probably works better if this is someone who you think will convey your hostile intentions without prodding..
3. Third Level of Moves: What are your moves given your belief about other player’s perception of you.
(a). How does other player view your experience level, style of play, etc.
` (b) Diplomacy of other player to you with the various types of deception used
(c) Indirect Deception by other player towards you
\(d) Effect of relationship of E/R, E/G and G/R on guesswork
i. If England and Germany have a really strong alliance might England take a risk and goFor Brest? It it does not appear that strong would England invariably go for Belgium?
ii. If Russia realizes that ER is going to be a threat to him does that make England less or more aggressive?
4. Conclusion
To me, the optimal move for France is to leave Brest open and the optimal move for England is to take Belgium. The benefit to England from gaining Brest (though substantial) does not justify the risk of losing Belgium and an assured two builds. For France, the risk of losing Brest (though substantial) is outweighed by the huge gain resulting in getting two build and building a fleet in Brest. So to go away from those moves has to be based on some level of confidence that the other player isn’t going to do those preferred/default moves. The inexactness of that determination is what makes me to want to play chess….