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Post 14 Apr 2011, 3:49 pm

I was wondering about how other diplomacy players make educated guesses in the typical situation where chance plays a role in the outcome in moves. I think the situation where England moves to English Channel in Spring 1901 and France and England have to make decisions about what to do is an optimal situation to examine the steps in formulating moves to optimize results.


1. Relevant Spring 1901 moves

a. Germany

Army Munich-Burgundy (bounce)
Army Berlin-Kiel
Fleet Kiel-Denmark

b. Italy

a. Fleet Naples-Ionian
b. Army Venice holds
c. Army Rome-Apulia

c. England

a. Fleet London-English Channel
b. Fleet Edinburgh-North Sea
c. Army Liverpool-Wales

d. Russia

a. Fleet Sev-Black Sea
b. Army Moscow-Ukraine
c. Army Warsaw-Galicia
d. Fleet St. Pete©-GOB

e. France

a. Fleet Brest-Mid Atlantic
b. Army Marseilles-Burgundy (bounce)
c. Army Paris-Gascony

2. First Level of Moves: Assessing best move from own standpoint

England: Best Outcome: (1) move to Brest, France leaves it uncovered
2nd best outcojme: (2) take Belgium, France covers Brest
3rd best outcome: (3) take Belgium, France leaves brest uncovered and gets two builds
4th best outcome: (4) bounce in Brest

France: Best outcome (1) don’t cover Brest, pick up two builds
2nd best outcome: (2) bounce in Brest
3rd worst outcome: (3) cover brest, England takes Belgium
Fourth Best: (4) England takes Brest

The interesting thing is that if France go for their best option they will either get it or they will get their worst option, perhaps indicating a conservative approach is required. But with France facing an all-out attack, maybe they should take that risk? Also if either side can improve the chance that one of their better outcomes will result, perhaps they can make riskier moves

2. Second Level of Moves: What are moves given your preception of other player given his style of play, the diplomacy between you and the other player, and indirect diplomacy

(a) Not sure if it works in this context but sometimes you can assume that an inexperienced player will not “see” a certain move.

(b) If you know that English player is conservative, maybe you assume that he takes Belgium if you’re French player. If you know that French player is aggressive maybe you think that odds are greater that he will leave Brest open and take two builds, etc…

(c) Diplomacy to persuade other player you are going to do a certain move or not do a certain move.

First Type of Decetion: Simply lying to other player about what you’re going to do.
Second Type of Decepton: Lying to other player but expecting that other player will not believe you and move accordingly.
Third Type of Deception: Telling other player the truth about your moves but expecting/intending that it willl not be believed
Indirect Disception--using other player to indirectly convey false intentions to the target country. The other player could be in cahoots with you but probably works better if this is someone who you think will convey your hostile intentions without prodding..

3. Third Level of Moves: What are your moves given your belief about other player’s perception of you.

(a). How does other player view your experience level, style of play, etc.
` (b) Diplomacy of other player to you with the various types of deception used
(c) Indirect Deception by other player towards you

\(d) Effect of relationship of E/R, E/G and G/R on guesswork

i. If England and Germany have a really strong alliance might England take a risk and goFor Brest? It it does not appear that strong would England invariably go for Belgium?
ii. If Russia realizes that ER is going to be a threat to him does that make England less or more aggressive?

4. Conclusion

To me, the optimal move for France is to leave Brest open and the optimal move for England is to take Belgium. The benefit to England from gaining Brest (though substantial) does not justify the risk of losing Belgium and an assured two builds. For France, the risk of losing Brest (though substantial) is outweighed by the huge gain resulting in getting two build and building a fleet in Brest. So to go away from those moves has to be based on some level of confidence that the other player isn’t going to do those preferred/default moves. The inexactness of that determination is what makes me to want to play chess….
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Post 15 Apr 2011, 8:22 am

The "problem" is this is treated more as tactics only, while tactics plays a huge role in the game we know it is only part of the whole and all sorts of things that "shouldn't" work often do work. The whole surprise factor catching someone out of position, the trust factor of who seems to be a better guy to work with (or who will later fall for your stab?) not to mention what happens elsewhere heavily affects what will work for you.

If this boiled down to the above conclusion, there would be little if any suspense and games would be scripted.
Your suggestion that it might be optimal for France to leave Belgium open (for example) can be shown to work just as many times as it doesn't work (I'm guessing it's fairly well split anyways) we all know these other factors come into play and can't be ignored for a presupposed "tactic".

Myself, I find the best tactic is to never assume anything and determine what will work best on the fly after talking to your neighbors. Nothing preplanned whatsoever, that's my "tactic"
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Post 15 Apr 2011, 10:56 am

despite the chances assessment the game movement decision should include the diplomacy-player factor that ultimately changes the odds.

however,
in a guboat game only odds are calculated that can help your dilemma. since people cant talk to each other, opening moves come down to personal preferences of openings or odds us you say.

I can only speak on my behalf since i recently played a gunboat - fog of war. as England i enter the channel, france went to MAO then in the fall F MAO went to Brest and I entered MAO woop woop!! a top move that I never tried before and it succeeded. needless to say what happened next.

I will post it as soon as i have the cmplete map so u can get a nice statistic of opening moves based solely on odds and no diplomacy!!
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Post 15 Apr 2011, 1:12 pm

I suppose if you are in a game where you really cannot read France at all, playing the odds is one way. Mind you, it's more of an issue for the later parts of the game where you usually know where you stand and it's all about tactics.
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Post 15 Apr 2011, 2:43 pm

Gunboat?
why bother with such an abomination of a game?
and I really do mean that, the diplomacy angle of the game is more important than any other aspect
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Post 15 Apr 2011, 2:44 pm

...hence the games name?
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Post 15 Apr 2011, 3:26 pm

Point well taken about France going to the Med (that is a devastating move against France and it would be the rare France who would defend against it). Of course, that move would make England somewhat vulnerable to a strong Germany but if you could rely on Germany than it is an aggressive move to crack France's somewhat strong defenses (seems similar to Italy going to the Aegean and totally cramping Turkey)

I believe Orange was faced with this tactical situation in the Tournament of Champions and he gambled and left Brest open and I believe England took Belgium. And the fact that Orange guessed right ultimately changed the direction of that game.

My intent in using this "model" situation was to try and figure out how people go about optimizing situations where the success of moves depends on chance. This happens all of the time in diplomacy. I tend to have difficulty in overestimating scenarios that are devastating but have low probability. How do you (1) weigh the likelihood of each possible move of your opponent with associated moves of your own and determine which set of your moves has the best net result given the possible moves of your opponent, the likelihood of each move, and the net postive or negative effect of each move considered in conjunction with your moves, and (4) how do you influence your opponent's moves so that increase your chances of guessing right?

So I am not so much interested in the perfect answer to the model presented (there isn't one) but how does one go about optiimizing your chances of success when faced with resolving complex tactical situations where chance is involved?
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Post 18 Apr 2011, 12:59 am

GMTom wrote:Gunboat?
why bother with such an abomination of a game?
and I really do mean that, the diplomacy angle of the game is more important than any other aspect
Gunboat is not without the potential for diplomacy. It's just harder when all you can do to signal intent or preference is to order moves. But it's still possible.

I guess you missed out on last year's tourney then? It was a load of fun, really.
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Post 18 Apr 2011, 1:43 am

I agree with Tom: In my opinion, Gunboat is an excellent tool for learning the mechanics that Diplomacy is built around. While it may be a diverting mini-game in its own right, it bears no real resemblance to the game of Diplomacy itself :) and any type of guessing game falls into the same category. In an ideal world of course, you know exactly whether England is going to the Channel or not, as you are telling them exactly what to do ;P
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Post 18 Apr 2011, 3:08 pm

I'm playing a fog of war gunboat game atm and so far it's quite interesting. The fact that you can only see the units that are immediately around you means that you have to make all kinds of judgment calls based on wonky information and guesswork, but this is offset by the fact that you know everybody else has to do the same. It's actually a lot of fun, but it's not really Diplomacy.
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Post 20 Apr 2011, 11:01 am

Yeah,I am starting to doubt whether it is really worth playing standard diplomacy when some of the players have played before. As Randy indicates there are opportunities to communicate in even no-press gunboat and at least you don't start the game at a disadvantage. The essential part of competition is that all players start on an equal footing and that is not likely to be true when some players already know each other from prior games.
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Post 20 Apr 2011, 3:21 pm

On that last point I agree. playing along with familiar faces for some it is a handicap. and sometimes I find myself puzzle to some people's moves. On that I must say that Magister' Equitum 's hosted games where players remain anonymous (at least to the best possible effort as friends always sign up together and talk via msn) has created very intense and enjoyable games.
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Post 20 Apr 2011, 10:52 pm

The new software offers the opportunity for anonymous games, in fact I'm playing in one atm. Can't say as I've ever really noticed a problem with people carrying grudges though.
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Post 21 Apr 2011, 12:43 am

affiliation mostly. i.e. if we had a good partnership in a game the chances are that we would do so again rather than risk an alliance with an unknown player. In an anonymous game players start in a more equal footing.
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Post 21 Apr 2011, 4:49 pm

Sassenach who were you in Blind Man's Roullete. If I was to make a guess I would say Italy! :) Dont you love a map in blue? :)
since the game is over now I will have a look at the map and post the opening moves and discuss if the openings are similar to the statistics presented here.