13 win difference by Pythag. Is the WAR of (2 * Wilson) + Pujols - Darvish >= 13?
Last year, the answer was an easy yes, on account of Darvish not playing in MLB. But I don't think it's fair to say that we have no idea what Darvish will produce. He's higher variance then most for sure, but it's not as if he's coming from nowhere. We do have some data on how to translate Japanese performance to MLB.
Anyway... last year, Wilson had 5.9 WAR and Pujols had 5.1. As far as Wilson goes, his previous highs were 4.6 and 2.0, and he's 32, so it's a clear career year for him. Admittedly, he got a slow start to his career (only a starter the last 2 years), but the upshot is that you can't really project him for 6 WAR again. The FAN projection on Fangraphs has him at 4.2, and those projections are generally optimistic. So I'd say roughly 4 for him.
As for Pujols, he's another tricky case. I'm sure everyone knows the details. FAN has him at 6.7, which is lower then he's been since 2002 aside from last year, but still a big jump up from last year. Accounting for the optimism again, I'll call it 6.5, but personally I think that's high.
So (2*Wilson) + Pujols is roughly 14.5 WAR. For the Rangers to keep pace, they'd only need 1.5 WAR from Darvish in this (admittedly super rough) calculus. But that completely ignores the players that Wilson and Pujols are replacing. Of course, it also ignores any other less publicized transactions that either team has made. But I'm willing to bet that any such transactions are less impactful then the WAR totals of the Angels' 1st baseman + 5th starter from last year.
I think Darvish easily projects for more then 1.5 WAR. Sure, he could fall short. There's probably a much greater chance that he posts <1 WAR then that either Wilson or Pujols do. But I think he's also reasonably likely to blow past 1.5 WAR. So I feel pretty comfortable saying that the Rangers at least remain co-favorites, if not favorites outright, to win the division.
As for Morales, everything I've heard suggests his return won't contribute much or at all. The Angels seem to think he's going to be awhile yet recovering, and he's not really got anywhere to play without bumping another decent player. To wit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-angels-corner-conundrum/
. This goes back to the point about the players the Angels are replacing (particularly in Pujols' case)- that logjam means that signing Pujols doesn't upgrade their rosters as much as it might seem at first glance. Of course, it also means they have a lot of depth to hedge against injuries with. Ask the 2011 Cardinals how important that can be.