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Post 06 Dec 2011, 8:22 pm

Owner / Team name (years in league)
All are confirmed

SLOTerp / Turtle Soup ('03-12) Commissioner $
geojanes / Eastside Bombers ('03-12) $
Junkoman / Lincoln Lumberjacks ('03-12) League Secretary $
Quipwitted / Connecticut Cougars ('04-12)
Sharur / Otto's Vall Bangers ('05-12) Scribe $
FishbowlTriumvir / Xenophon's Ten Thousand ('06-12)
nightskyre / Auburn E-Claire's ('06-12)
Machiavelli / Texas Teabaggers ('07-12) $
Bradsour / Ugly Ducklings ('07-12) $
theking121 / The King's Men ('04 & '08-12) $
The Gentleman / Westcoast Knucklebusters ('08-12) $
nickschuller / Apple Sauce ('08-12) $
Tezcatlipoca / Columbia Longgui ('09-12)
Green Arrow / Walla Walla Wallabys ('10-12) $

$ = Paid for 2012 ($3)

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Post 07 Dec 2011, 9:02 pm

Y'all ain't gettin' rid of me that easy. I'm in!

(Everyone else is confirmed, but I'm just seeing this, did I miss an email or something?)
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Post 08 Dec 2011, 6:34 am

Email was sent to your lonestar.org address. The impressive aspect is that everyone confirmed within 24 hours of the email. (You missed the 24-hour mark by an hour and a half - I was considering pulling your spot based on the lackadaisacal attitude!)

I think we have some pent up desire to get back to baseball. Must be frustrating watching the Yankees on the sidelines this week.
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Post 08 Dec 2011, 10:03 am

i just happened to see this E-mail while I was still working on my football team statistics. I am looking forward to the season. Ticked that Pujols signed with the Angels. Great... That was all the news my Mariners needed today.
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Post 08 Dec 2011, 7:38 pm

Speaking as a Cardinals fan, and someone who's somewhat in mourning about this... don't be too upset, Brad. In the short run, the Mariners, um... how to put this gently... well, it probably won't matter to them. In the long run? The nickname "Albertross" has been making it's way around the 'tubes. It kills me to see him go, but from a baseball standpoint that is not at all a good contract. I think the Angels had a lot of off-the-field business reasons for doing it, sadly (sadly for Cardinals' fans at least).
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Post 27 Dec 2011, 10:43 am

Sharur wrote:Speaking as a Cardinals fan, and someone who's somewhat in mourning about this... don't be too upset, Brad. In the short run, the Mariners, um... how to put this gently... well, it probably won't matter to them. In the long run? The nickname "Albertross" has been making it's way around the 'tubes. It kills me to see him go, but from a baseball standpoint that is not at all a good contract. I think the Angels had a lot of off-the-field business reasons for doing it, sadly (sadly for Cardinals' fans at least).


The owner of the Angels is very smart. He is wanting to appeal to the broader Latino community in SoCal. I'm guessing Pujols will make a bundle more in endorsements on top of everything else.

In the short run, I think this tilts the whole balance of the AL. The Angels, not the 2-time defending AL Champ Rangers, are the division favorites--and probably the favorites to win the league. They are flat-out loaded.

To Todd's point, the contract will look pretty dopey in about 6 years or so. I'm guessing the idea is to get 3 or 4 AL titles and a couple of World Series rings before Albert becomes a .270/20/80 #7 hitter.
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Post 27 Dec 2011, 1:10 pm

I agree that's the idea, but I don't think the Angels are as strong as all that. There's a lot of dead weight in their OF, and though they appear to have the minor league depth to start benching/releasing some of it, they haven't shown the inclination to do so to date. Pujols also appears to already be in decline, and the rest of their infield isn't particularly incredible. Their SP is very impressive, though. I guess we'll see.
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Post 27 Dec 2011, 3:48 pm

Sharur wrote:I agree that's the idea, but I don't think the Angels are as strong as all that. There's a lot of dead weight in their OF, and though they appear to have the minor league depth to start benching/releasing some of it, they haven't shown the inclination to do so to date. Pujols also appears to already be in decline, and the rest of their infield isn't particularly incredible. Their SP is very impressive, though. I guess we'll see.


Would you say favorites to win their division?
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Post 31 Dec 2011, 9:43 pm

Over the Rangers? Not obviously so.
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Post 01 Jan 2012, 12:35 pm

I see it a toss up between Angels and Rangers. Oakland and Seattle have no chance.
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Post 02 Jan 2012, 1:43 am

Yeah, that's my thinking. As good as the Rangers have been the past two years, and as little as they've really lost (replacing C.J. Wilson with Yu Darvish could fall flat, but it could also end up being a net gain), I don't think you can dethrone them based on 2 big FA signings. The Angels had a lot of ground to make up.
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Post 02 Jan 2012, 11:39 am

Sharur wrote:Yeah, that's my thinking. As good as the Rangers have been the past two years, and as little as they've really lost (replacing C.J. Wilson with Yu Darvish could fall flat, but it could also end up being a net gain), I don't think you can dethrone them based on 2 big FA signings. The Angels had a lot of ground to make up.


Well, maybe. They finished 10 games back. I think Wilson, Pujols, and the return of Morales might well make up the difference. Plus, we have really no idea what Darvish is going to produce. It will be interesting to see how much he fetches at your auction.
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Post 03 Jan 2012, 4:23 pm

13 win difference by Pythag. Is the WAR of (2 * Wilson) + Pujols - Darvish >= 13?

Last year, the answer was an easy yes, on account of Darvish not playing in MLB. But I don't think it's fair to say that we have no idea what Darvish will produce. He's higher variance then most for sure, but it's not as if he's coming from nowhere. We do have some data on how to translate Japanese performance to MLB.

Anyway... last year, Wilson had 5.9 WAR and Pujols had 5.1. As far as Wilson goes, his previous highs were 4.6 and 2.0, and he's 32, so it's a clear career year for him. Admittedly, he got a slow start to his career (only a starter the last 2 years), but the upshot is that you can't really project him for 6 WAR again. The FAN projection on Fangraphs has him at 4.2, and those projections are generally optimistic. So I'd say roughly 4 for him.

As for Pujols, he's another tricky case. I'm sure everyone knows the details. FAN has him at 6.7, which is lower then he's been since 2002 aside from last year, but still a big jump up from last year. Accounting for the optimism again, I'll call it 6.5, but personally I think that's high.

So (2*Wilson) + Pujols is roughly 14.5 WAR. For the Rangers to keep pace, they'd only need 1.5 WAR from Darvish in this (admittedly super rough) calculus. But that completely ignores the players that Wilson and Pujols are replacing. Of course, it also ignores any other less publicized transactions that either team has made. But I'm willing to bet that any such transactions are less impactful then the WAR totals of the Angels' 1st baseman + 5th starter from last year.

I think Darvish easily projects for more then 1.5 WAR. Sure, he could fall short. There's probably a much greater chance that he posts <1 WAR then that either Wilson or Pujols do. But I think he's also reasonably likely to blow past 1.5 WAR. So I feel pretty comfortable saying that the Rangers at least remain co-favorites, if not favorites outright, to win the division.

As for Morales, everything I've heard suggests his return won't contribute much or at all. The Angels seem to think he's going to be awhile yet recovering, and he's not really got anywhere to play without bumping another decent player. To wit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-angels-corner-conundrum/. This goes back to the point about the players the Angels are replacing (particularly in Pujols' case)- that logjam means that signing Pujols doesn't upgrade their rosters as much as it might seem at first glance. Of course, it also means they have a lot of depth to hedge against injuries with. Ask the 2011 Cardinals how important that can be.
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Post 04 Jan 2012, 11:54 am

Sharur wrote:13 win difference by Pythag. Is the WAR of (2 * Wilson) + Pujols - Darvish >= 13?
. . . .
So (2*Wilson) + Pujols is roughly 14.5 WAR. For the Rangers to keep pace, they'd only need 1.5 WAR from Darvish in this (admittedly super rough) calculus. But that completely ignores the players that Wilson and Pujols are replacing. Of course, it also ignores any other less publicized transactions that either team has made. But I'm willing to bet that any such transactions are less impactful then the WAR totals of the Angels' 1st baseman + 5th starter from last year.

I think Darvish easily projects for more then 1.5 WAR. Sure, he could fall short. There's probably a much greater chance that he posts <1 WAR then that either Wilson or Pujols do. But I think he's also reasonably likely to blow past 1.5 WAR. So I feel pretty comfortable saying that the Rangers at least remain co-favorites, if not favorites outright, to win the division.

As for Morales, everything I've heard suggests his return won't contribute much or at all. The Angels seem to think he's going to be awhile yet recovering, and he's not really got anywhere to play without bumping another decent player. To wit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-angels-corner-conundrum/. This goes back to the point about the players the Angels are replacing (particularly in Pujols' case)- that logjam means that signing Pujols doesn't upgrade their rosters as much as it might seem at first glance. Of course, it also means they have a lot of depth to hedge against injuries with. Ask the 2011 Cardinals how important that can be.


Alright, are there any other owners who feel completely inadequate now? What the hell language is he speaking?
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Post 04 Jan 2012, 1:37 pm

geojanes wrote:
Sharur wrote:13 win difference by Pythag. Is the WAR of (2 * Wilson) + Pujols - Darvish >= 13?
. . . .
So (2*Wilson) + Pujols is roughly 14.5 WAR. For the Rangers to keep pace, they'd only need 1.5 WAR from Darvish in this (admittedly super rough) calculus. But that completely ignores the players that Wilson and Pujols are replacing. Of course, it also ignores any other less publicized transactions that either team has made. But I'm willing to bet that any such transactions are less impactful then the WAR totals of the Angels' 1st baseman + 5th starter from last year.

I think Darvish easily projects for more then 1.5 WAR. Sure, he could fall short. There's probably a much greater chance that he posts <1 WAR then that either Wilson or Pujols do. But I think he's also reasonably likely to blow past 1.5 WAR. So I feel pretty comfortable saying that the Rangers at least remain co-favorites, if not favorites outright, to win the division.

As for Morales, everything I've heard suggests his return won't contribute much or at all. The Angels seem to think he's going to be awhile yet recovering, and he's not really got anywhere to play without bumping another decent player. To wit: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-angels-corner-conundrum/. This goes back to the point about the players the Angels are replacing (particularly in Pujols' case)- that logjam means that signing Pujols doesn't upgrade their rosters as much as it might seem at first glance. Of course, it also means they have a lot of depth to hedge against injuries with. Ask the 2011 Cardinals how important that can be.


Alright, are there any other owners who feel completely inadequate now? What the hell language is he speaking?


He takes "geek" to a whole new, and I'm not sure necessary, level doesn't he? It's probably good that I can't get back in the league yet. I need to get my geek on.