08 Apr 2014, 1:06 pm
I decided to find them. Here are all of the multi-3-year-contract players. Note that I'm ignoring, e.g., 3s following a rookie contract, 3s following 1s and 2s, and 1s and 2s following 3s. Seems to me that sort of thing is not really the issue at hand.
Also, I'm using the current team names to make the ownership chain clear (in case that matters).
Prince Fielder (2007 King's Men, 2010 King's Men, 2013 King's Men)
Ian Kinsler (2007 King's Men, 2010 King's Men)
Adrian Gonzalez (2007 vall Bangers, 2010 vall Bangers)
Justin Verlander (2007 E's, 2010 vall Bangers, 2013 vall Bangers)
Jon Lester (2007 E-Claires, 2010 E-Claires)
Ryan Zimmerman (2007 Lumberjacks, 2010 Longgui)
Dustin Pedroia (2008 Lumberjacks, 2011 Lumberjacks)
Yovani Gallardo (2008 E's, 2011 E's)
Tim Lincecum (2008 E's, 2011 E's)
Justin Upton (2009 Ducklings, 2012 Lumberjacks)
Cliff Lee (2009 Ducklings, 2012 Lumberjacks)
Clayton Kershaw (2009 E's, 2012 E's)
Jacoby Ellsbury (2009 E-Claires, 2012 E-Claires)
Evan Longoria (2009 Sauce, 2012 Sauce)
Ryan Braun (2010 Cougars, 2013 Lumberjacks)
Joey Votto (2010 vall Bangers, 2013 vall Bangers)
Andrew McCutchen (2010 Longgui, 2013 E-Claires)
Billy Butler (2010 E-Claires, 2013 Longgui)
Jason Heyward (2011 Longgui, 2014 vall Bangers)
Giancarlo Stanton (2011 Ducklings, 2014 Sauce)
Stephen Strasburg (2011 Longgui, 2014 Longgui)
Jordan Zimmerman (2011 Soup, 2014 E's)
Madison Bumgarner (2011 E's, 2014 E's)
Buster Posey (2011 Foes, 2014 Foes)
There are, so far, only two players in league history with 3 consecutive 3-year contracts (come on down, Justin Verlander and Prince Fielder). Granted, we've only had two years worth of players (2007-2008) with the opportunity, but it's worth noting that:
*There were only 9 players who even had a double contract coming out of those years
*Both of the triple contracts are reasonably likely to bust
*Several of that original set of 9 double contracts busted in the second contract (hello 10K pitchers)
More generally, even if we ignore the success rate of such contracts, the fact is that we're only seeing a handful of them per year. We look to be averaging around 15 active renewed contracts at a given point in time. That's about one per team- or in other words, not much different from the intended outcome of Steve's proposal, save that it's not artificially restricted in terms of which teams benefit.
Also of interest is that noted scourge Matt has relied exclusively on trades to acquire his contract renewal candidates. Not only does this apply to Upton, Lee, and Braun, it also applies to Pedroia (he signed the first contract but acquired him from me for James Shields as a rookie) and to Joey Bats, who doesn't show up here because he was renewed off back-to-back 1 year contracts. Obviously Trout and Goldschmidt are likely to be exceptions (although I don't know for sure that he didn't trade for them as rookies).
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Below are the number of 3 year contracts each year that were within the range where you can't be renewing a contract (BY < $6, so up to $10/$13/$14). Combined with the above, this should give an idea of how frequently the 3 year contracts are being used to lock someone up once at low prices and then be done with them:
2007: 27/46 (59%)
2008: 15/25 (60%)
2009: 28/34 (82%)
2010: 22/40 (55%)
2011: 27/35 (77%)
2012: 18/29 (62%)
2013: 16/26 (62%)
2014: 19/31 (61%)
Total: 182/266 (68%)